Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) options open interest reached an unprecedented milestone, surging to a staggering $20.5 billion on Dec. 7. This remarkable achievement signifies the active involvement of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency space. Unlike futures contracts, BTC options come with predetermined expiration prices, offering valuable insights into traders’ expectations and the markets’ sentiment.

At the forefront of the Bitcoin options market stands Deribit, boasting an impressive 90% market share. The exchange currently holds a substantial $2.05 billion open interest for options expiring on Jan. 26. However, it's worth noting that a significant portion of these bets may lose their value as the deadline approaches.

Nonetheless, with the prospect of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining regulatory approval, previously sidelined bullish bets are reentering the playing field.

How costly is a Bitcoin call (buy) option?

Presently, the $54,000 call option set to expire on Jan. 26 is trading at 0.02 BTC, equivalent to $880 at current market prices. This option necessitates a 25% increase in Bitcoin's value over the next 49 days for the buyer to turn a profit. It's noteworthy that sellers can hedge their positions using BTC futures while pocketing the options premium, mitigating some of the perceived risk associated with this trade.

Analysts have emphasized the significance of the $250 million open interest stemming from the $50,000 call options on Deribit. At the current price of $44,000, these options are collectively valued at $8.8 million. This valuation could experience considerable growth if regulatory authorities greenlight the spot ETF plans. However, it remains uncertain whether the buyers of these $50,000 call options intend to employ them for bullish strategies.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable 15.7% price surge in the first six days of December. This surge has been heavily influenced by the anticipation of an imminent approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Senior Bloomberg ETF analysts have expressed a 90% probability for approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is expected before Jan. 10.

However, Bitcoin’s recent price surge may not be as straightforward as it seems. Analysts have failed to consider the multiple rejections at $37,500 and $38,500 during the second half of November. These rejections have left professional traders, including market makers, questioning the market’s strength, particularly from the perspective of derivatives metrics.

Bitcoin’s inherent volatility explains pro traders’ reduced appetite

Bitcoin’s 7.6% rally to $37,965 on Nov. 15 resulted in disappointment as the movement fully retracted the following day. Similarly, between Nov. 20 and Nov. 21, Bitcoin's price declined by 5.3% after the $37,500 resistance proved more formidable than anticipated.

While corrections are natural even during bullish markets, they explain why whales and market makers are avoiding leveraged long positions in these volatile conditions. Surprisingly, despite positive daily candles throughout this period, buyers using long leverage were forcefully liquidated, with losses totaling a staggering $390 million in the past five days.

Although the Bitcoin futures premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached its highest level in two years, indicating excessive demand for long positions, this trend doesn't necessarily apply to all exchanges and client profiles. In some cases, top traders have reduced their long-to-short leverage ratio to the lowest levels seen in 30 days. This indicates a profit-taking movement and reduced demand for bullish bets above $40,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is lining up an “early bull market” as a unique chart feature plays out for the first time in history.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Dec. 7, entrepreneur Alistair Milne drew attention to Bitcoin’s first ever weekly golden cross.

Bitcoin goes from death cross to golden cross in 10 months

Recent BTC price upside has delivered considerable profits to various Bitcoin investor cohorts, but 165% year-to-date gains are now significant for another reason.

Should current performance continue, Bitcoin will witness a crossover of two weekly moving averages (MAs), which have never delivered such a bull signal before.

The 50-week and 200-week MAs are key trendlines for Bitcoin traders and analysts alike. The latter is the ultimate bear market support level, and it has so far never decreased in value.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained a new generation of hodlers in the past three years as stubborn investors refuse to sell.

Data from the popular HODL Waves metric shows that those who bought Bitcoin in late 2020 are still sitting on their coins.

BTC price should go “way higher” for hodlers to sell

Bitcoin’s longer-term investor cohorts, also known as long-term holders (LTHs), are in no mood to decrease their exposure despite the 2023 bull run.

HODL Waves, which groups the BTC supply by the time elapsing since each coin last moved, shows a particular age band growing considerably over the past year.

Since the bear market bottomed in late 2022, unmoved coins in two to three years have increased their presence within the overall supply considerably. Last December, the group accounted for around 8% of the supply; now, its share is more than 15%.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained almost 170% since the European Central Bank (ECB) warned of its impending “irrelevance.”

As noted by crypto proponent Eric Wall and others on Dec. 4, BTC price action has done the complete opposite of economists’ predictions.

ECB Bitcoin myopia: “What else are they wrong about?”

Bitcoin traded at just $16,400 when, on Nov. 30, 2022, the ECB published a blog post dedicated to its death.

Coming just after the implosion of the FTX exchange and subsequent market flight, the post argued that even those levels were a stopping point on the way to new lows.

“The value of bitcoin peaked at USD 69,000 in November 2021 before falling to USD 17,000 by mid-June 2022. Since then, the value has fluctuated around USD 20,000,” it stated.

The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market surged past $1.55 trillion on Dec. 5, driven by remarkable weekly gains of 14.5% for Bitcoin (BTC) and 11% for Ether (ETH). Notably, this milestone, marking the highest level in 19 months, propelled Bitcoin to become the world’s ninth-largest tradable asset, surpassing Meta’s $814 billion capitalization.

Despite the recent bullish momentum, analysts have observed that retail demand remains relatively stagnant. Some attribute this to the ripple effects of an inflationary environment and decreased interest in credit, given that interest rates continue to hover above 5.25%. While analyst Rajat Soni’s post may have dramatized the situation, the underlying, in essence, holds true.

Numerous United States economic indicators have surged to record highs, including wages, salaries and household net worth. However, analyst Ed Yardeni suggested that the “Santa Claus rally” might have already occurred earlier this year, with the S&P 500 gaining 8.9% in November.

This rise reflected diminishing inflationary pressures and robust employment data. Yet, investors remain cautious, with approximately $6 trillion in “dry powder” parked in money market funds, waiting on the sidelines.

With no dependable indicator to track retail participation in cryptocurrencies, a comprehensive data set is necessary for making conclusions, beyond relying solely on Google Trends and crypto-related app download rankings. To determine if retail traders have missed out on the rally, it’s essential that the indicators align across various sources.

Bitcoin (BTC) clipped $44,000 later on Dec. 5 as the Wall Street trading session delivered more snap BTC price gains.

Bitcoin applies more pressure to bears

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed a fresh round of upside for Bitcoin as it outpaced altcoins to reach $44,011 on Bitstamp.

Taking week-to-date gains to 10%, this marked its highest levels since early April 2022 and represented a key challenge to significant resistance.

As noted by popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, $44,000 constitutes the high point of a range that has occurred several times since early 2021.

“Bitcoin has successfully revisited the Range High resistance at ~$43900,” he continued in subsequent commentary on X (formerly Twitter).

Bitcoin (BTC) returned above $42,000 on Dec. 5 as analysis remained suspicious of market manipulation.

Analysis: New Bitcoin bids are not “organic”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a BTC price rebound taking BTC/USD to highs of $42,498 on Bitstamp.

These beat the 19-month peak set the day prior, with retracements being short-lived amid a general atmosphere of excitement throughout crypto.

As Bitcoin continued to reclaim ground lost in mid-2022, however, warnings over the rally’s sustainability continued to flow in. These centered on the behavior of large-volume traders, also known as whales.

In a dedicated thread about the phenomenon on X (formerly Twitter), trading resource Material Indicators explained that from order book liquidity cues, it appeared that these traders could be deliberately coordinating higher prices in order to sell into an uptrend with minimal slippage.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a mass profit-taking event which rivals its $69,000 all-time highs, new analysis reveals.

In a post on Dec. 5, James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, flagged billions of dollars heading to exchanges.

Bitcoin speculators sell as if all-time highs are back

BTC price gains have delivered a welcome reward to hodlers across the board in recent days as 19-month highs appeared.

While old hands are retaining their share of the BTC supply, at the other end of the spectrum, so-called short-term holders (STHs) have been busy locking in profits on their investments.

STHs refer to entities holding a given part of the supply for 155 days or less. They correspond to the more speculative class of Bitcoin investors, and their cost basis has formed a key BTC price support in 2023.

The crypto market is down today as a slew of regulatory enforcement events weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and altcoin prices. The markets continue to reel since the Nov. 21 Department of Justice (DOJ) settlement against Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Binance to the tune of a $4.3 billion fine.

Price action across the crypto market remains tilted to the downside as investors and money managers further digest the potential fallout from increased regulatory actions taken against the industry.

US-led regulatory pressure against crypto is in full-steam-ahead mode

The cryptocurrency industry and regulators have a long history of not getting along either due to various misconceptions or mistrust over the actual use case of digital assets.

On Nov. 21, the DOJ announced enforcement actions and a settlement related to CZ and Binance in which both pleaded guilty.

According to the settlement, Binance will pay $4.3 billion in fines, and CZ will pay $159 million in penalties. The settlement covered civil regulatory enforcement actions by government departments, including the U.S. Treasury and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Bitcoin (BTC) shrank back from resistance after the Nov. 29 Wall Street open as United States gross domestic product (GDP) figures beat expectations.

GDP sets tone for macro-sensitive crypto

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed a familiar BTC price retracement on short timeframes.

Bitcoin bulls had managed to propel the market above $38,000 the day prior, only to flip-flop around that level before ultimately dropping as U.S. macro data hit.

This showed Q3 GDP accelerating beyond anticipated levels, coming in at 5.2% versus 4.9%.

This renewed concerns over how the United States Federal Reserve might handle policy ahead of an interest rates decision in mid-December.

Bitcoin (BTC) held momentum at $38,000 on Nov. 29 as analysis warned over market corrections.

Bitcoin meets macro data, Fed’s Powell at key price point

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price trajectory continuing to aim for new 18-month highs.

After matching current highs the day prior, the largest cryptocurrency surprised by keeping a grip on higher levels as futures markets hit $39,000.

Already a topic of debate, the excitement on derivatives led some to caution that large-volume traders could still leave late long positions stranded at the top.

In commentary overnight, Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, told traders to be wary of these “whale games.”

In the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a whopping 14.5% surge, hitting a 20-month high at $41,130 by Dec. 4. Traders and analysts have been abuzz with speculation, especially in the wake of the $100 million liquidation of short (bearish) Bitcoin futures within just 24 hours. However, when we dive into BTC derivatives data, a different story unfolds—one that places the spotlight on spot market action.

The impact of the recent liquidations in Bitcoin futures markets

While the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trades USD-settled contracts for Bitcoin futures, where no physical Bitcoin changes hands, these futures markets undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping spot prices. The sheer scale of Bitcoin futures, with an aggregate open interest of $20 billion, underscores the keen interest of professional investors.

In the same seven-day period, a mere $200 million worth of BTC futures shorts were liquidated, representing only 1% of the total outstanding contracts. This figure pales in comparison to the substantial $190 billion in trading volume during the same timeframe.

Even when focusing solely on the CME, which is known for potential trading volume inflation, its daily volume of $2.67 billion should have readily absorbed a $100 million 24-hour liquidation. This has led investors to ponder whether the recent Bitcoin rally might be attributed to the targeting of a few whales within the futures markets.

One could attempt to gauge the extent of liquidations at different price levels using tape reading techniques. However, this approach fails to consider whether whales and market makers are adequately hedged or have the capacity to deposit additional margin.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces sharp volatility as the new week begins with BTC price action focusing on $42,000 — can it endure?

The largest cryptocurrency, fresh from weekend gains that topped 10%, is still keeping traders guessing over its next move.

While a trip to $40,000 was well anticipated, the question now is whether or not the latest move represents the beginning of a new trend or, conversely, a new bull trap.

Appraisals currently vary widely, with bullish and bearish perspectives battling for vindication.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the most important support and resistance levels now in play after recent BTC price performance reshapes the market landscape.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first week of December looking better than it has since early 2022 — at over $40,000.

BTC price action is delighting bulls already as the month begins, with the weekly close providing the first trip above the $40,000 mark since April last year.

Shorts are getting wiped and liquidity taken as the bull run sees its latest boost on the back of macroeconomic changes and anticipation of the United States’ first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Despite misgivings and some predicting a major price retracement, Bitcoin continues to offer little respite for sellers, who continually miss out on profits or are left waiting on the sidelines for an entry price that never comes.

The party mood is not just reflected on markets — Bitcoin miners are busy preparing for the halving, and with the hash rate already at all-time highs of its own, the trend is set to continue this week.