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After the impressive rally in January, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be taking a breather in February. This is a positive sign because vertical rallies are rarely sustainable. A minor dip could shake out the nervous longs and provide an opportunity for long-term investors to add to their positions.

Has Bitcoin price bottomed?

The opinion remains divided, however, on whether Bitcoin has bottomed out or not. Some analysts expect the rally to reverse direction and nosedive below the November low while others believe the markets will continue to move up and frustrate the traders who are waiting to buy at lower levels.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Morgan Creek Capital Management founder and CEO Mark Yusko said “the crypto summer” could begin as early as the second quarter of this year.

He expects risk assets to turn bullish if the United States Federal Reserve signals that it will slow down or pause interest rate hikes. Another potential bullish catalyst for Bitcoin is the block reward halving in 2024.

Could the altcoins continue their up-move while Bitcoin consolidates in the near term? Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and select altcoins that may outperform in the next few days.

Bitcoin (BTC) could face a retest of $20,000 and the United States will fail in its plans for a “soft landing” on inflation, a new analysis says.

In a YouTube update on Feb. 5, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, warned that the tide is due to turn for risk assets.

U.S. “probably” headed for recession — Van de Poppe 

Amid confusion over how incoming U.S. macroeconomic data may affect market sentiment, Van de Poppe says there is an increasing chance that the rebound seen in crypto and stocks this year may flip bearish.

Bitcoin, for example, saw 40% gains in January, but like some others, he believes that a disappointing February is a real possibility.

“I think that people should understand that there is no soft landing, that there is likely a continuation of this downward trend on the markets,” he said about the longer-term status quo.

The price of Fantom (FTM) risks pulling back in February due to a growing divergence between its price and momentum in recent weeks.

FTM price rallies 230% after Cronje’s 2023 roadmap

FTM’s price has grown by 230% in the past five weeks, trading at $0.61 on Feb. 5. The rally came as a part of a broader crypto market recovery but outperformed most top-ranking crypto assets due to the hype created by Andre Cronje.

Cronje is the co-founder and architect of Fantom’s layer-1 blockchain. On Dec. 26, 2022, the developer released a letter discussing the goals and priorities for the Fantom ecosystem in 2023, including his intention to allow decentralized app developers to earn 15% of the network’s revenue.

The FTM price has seen five weeks of gains in a row since Cronje’s letter to the Fantom Foundation team.

The FTM/USD pair looks ready to close the week ending Feb. 5 with at least a 25% profit, helped by Cronje’s latest Twitter thread that gives 13 reasons why Fantom will be one of the best layer-1 blockchains in 2023. 

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) price was at the lowest versus its top rival, Dogecoin (DOGE), in November 2022. Three months later, the dynamics have flipped. 

SHIB price rises 100% versus DOGE

On Feb. 4, 2023, the SHIB/DOGE pair reached 0.00001638 DOGE, up almost 100% three months after bottoming out at 0.00000993 DOGE, its lowest level on record.

The sharp recovery came as investors’ focus shifted to the impending launch of Shibarium, a Shiba Inu-backed layer-2 blockchain built on the Ethereum mainnet, announced on Jan. 16.

As Cointelegraph reported, the SHIB price rebound gained momentum amid reports that Shibarium will go live on Feb. 14.

In comparison, Dogecoin’s fundamentals looked pale, with Elon Musk suspending a DOGE tipping bot for violating Twitter’s rules.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $23,500 on Feb. 4 as bulls refused to give up support in out-of-hours trading.

Bitcoin price conjures 2020 memories

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD holding a narrow range in place since the Feb. 3 Wall Street open.

Macroeconomic data releases from the United States provided modest volatility but no overall trend change as traders bided their time heading into the weekend.

Opinions on the longer-term outlook were mixed, however, with some maintaining that there was little reason to trust that Bitcoin’s rally would continue.

“Seeing $50,000 calls already on Bitcoin and we have yet to complete a higher high and higher low market structure change,” popular trader Crypto Tony summarized in part of a tweet on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell prior to the Feb. 3 Wall Street open as fresh United States economic data came in “hot hot hot.”

“Think again” over U.S. recession

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it erased gains from earlier in the day to center on $23,000 support.

The pair reacted negatively to U.S. unemployment data for January, which beat expectations so considerably that overall jobless figures fell to their lowest since 1969.

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) data likewise outperformed, while average hourly earnings conformed to forecast 0.3% growth.

“HUGE beat in NFP,” popular analytics account Tedtalksmacro responded on Twitter.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $23,000 on Feb. 3 after a night of losses erased bulls’ latest progress.

Dollar rebound halts crypto party

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $23,329 on Bitstamp.

The pair had come off a second trip above the $24,000 mark at the Feb. 2 Wall Street open, with buyers failing to sustain momentum amid macro market volatility.

In classic style for interest rate announcements by the United States Federal Reserve, an initial move was soon countered, with Bitcoin returning to its prior position.

Conditions worsened thanks to a rebound in U.S. dollar strength, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) putting in a conspicuous bounce, which it began to consolidate on the day.

On Feb. 1 and Feb 2. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price surpassed even the most bullish price projections after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 

Even though Fed chair Jerome Powell told investors not to wait for interest rate cuts in 2023, during his press conference he did clearly state that the employment data is currently the main focus.

The results of the ADP payroll survey revealed on Feb. 1 that U.S. private-sector hiring was significantly slower in January. ADP’s measure of private sector payrolls was 106,000, well below the 160,000 market consensus. This data fueled investors’ expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Fed going forward.

After testing the $22,500 support on Feb. 1, Bitcoin gained 6.5% in five hours and has since been flirting with the $24,000 level. While the recent gains are exciting, traders should note that the improvement in crypto market sentiment tracked the risk-on attitude seen in traditional markets.

Stocks with negative operating margin presented significant gains on Feb. 2, including Coinbase (COIN) 20%, Cloudflare (NET) 15%, Unity Software (U) 12% and DoorDash (DASH) 10%. That factor alone should be a warning sign that the gains of the last few weeks might not be sustainable. It’s also important to remember that Bitcoin’s 40-day correlation to the S&P 500 remains above 75%.

The memecoin phenomenon didn’t prove as effective in the last month's start of year crypto market rally, as the gains of the top cryptocurrencies in this category barely outperformed Bitcoin. The monthly gain of BTC stood at 44.5%, while the top two meme-based coins DOGE and SHIB gained 27% and 40.7%, respectively.

Doge needs a market moving catalyst

Dogecoin is losing its popularity as its most prominent supporter Elon Musk is reportedly developing an independent Twitter Coin instead of integrating his favorite cryptocurrency with the social media platform owned by the entrepreneur.

For the greater part of 2022, DOGE/USD performed poorly except for when Elon Musk acquired Twitter. The acquisition raised hopes in the Dogecoin community about increased cryptocurrency usage.

However, without any tangible announcements or reports from Twitter hinting at Dogecoin usage, the 100% price surge from October 2022 reversed in the following two months. The Google search volume for the token has also subsided since Q1 2022.

Dogecoin is losing its popularity as its most prominent supporter Elon Musk is reportedly developing an independent Twitter Coin instead of integrating his favorite cryptocurrency with the social media platform owned by the entrepreneur.

Ether (ETH) has been struggling with the $1,680 resistance since Jan. 20. Still, the ascending triangle pattern and improvements in investor sentiment in ETH derivatives provides hope that Ether price could reach $1,800 or higher by the end of February. This, of course, depends on how the Ether price behaves as it reaches the pattern deadline by mid-February. 

From one side, traders are relieved that Ether is trading up 33% year-to-date, but the repeated failures to break the $1,680 resistance coupled with negative newsflow might give bears the power to cancel the bullish triangle pattern.

According to a Jan. 30 report from Axios, New York State's Department of Financial Services is reportedly investigating cryptocurrency exchange Gemini over claims that the firm made regarding assets in its Earn lending program. The suspicions followed reports that multiple Gemini Earn users believed their assets had been protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

On Jan. 12, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged the Gemini exchange with offering unregistered securities through Earn. In addition, Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss has claimed that Genesis and DCG owe $900 million to Gemini's clients.

Several United States senators have reportedly penned a letter requesting answers from Silvergate Bank, according to a Jan. 31 Bloomberg report. The policymakers were not fully satisfied with the bank's previous answers about its alleged role in handling FTX user funds. Silvergate reportedly cited restrictions on disclosing "confidential supervisory information."

Avalanche (AVAX) bulls should brace themselves for impact led by a growing divergence between several key indicators on the daily-timeframe chart.

AVAX price chart paints bearish divergence

The daily AVAX chart shows a classic bearish divergence between its price and relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator forming since Jan. 11.

In other words, the price of AVAX has been making higher highs since the said date. But, on the other hand, the coin’s daily RSI has been forming lower highs. This divergence suggests a slowdown in the momentum of the AVAX/USD pair, which may lead to a price reversal.

In addition, the declining volumes during the course of AVAX’s ongoing uptrend also hint at the same bearish cues.

The price-RSI and price-volume divergences appear as AVAX price continues its 2023 uptrend. Notably, Avalanche has rallied by more than 100% year-to-date to $22.50 as of Feb. 2, helped by improving risk-on sentiments and news of its partnership with Amazon.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a sink-or-swim resistance test to confirm its “macro breakout,” a new analysis says.

In a tweet on Feb. 2, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators flagged key levels to flip to support after BTC/USD spiked above $24,000.

Bitcoin price gears up for trend line showdown

In what was ultimately a boon for Bitcoin bulls, the United States Federal Reserve delivered what risk-on traders wanted to hear on Feb. 1.

With Chair Jerome Powell using the word “disinflation,” hopes immediately began to bet on rate hikes ending sooner and easier monetary conditions returning in their place.

The mood was palpable across crypto, with BTC price action reversing an initial drop to see new six-month highs of $24,250 on Bitstamp.

Bitcoin's (BTC) price has been trading above $22,500 for 12 days. Of course, this situation can change even if Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell issues positive statements about the economy in today’s post-FOMC presser. 

Even if the decision matches the market consensus, the post-meeting statement should be investors' primary area of focus. Specific areas to focus on would be clues for the next meeting in March.

Troubling news for the largest stablecoin Tether (USDT), could also cause a meaningful impact after a Celsius bankruptcy examiner report showed that "Tether's exposure eventually grew to over $2 billion" in Sep. 2021. However, it is unclear if iFinex — Tether’s issuer — suffered any losses. iFinex CTO Paolo Ardoino denied exposure to Celsius and suggested that the examiner had "mixed up" prepositions in the report.

Is a strong correction in stock market ahead?

Legendary portfolio manager Michael Burry, known for being one of the most vocal critics of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 to 2008, posted a short note on Twitter on Feb. 1, suggesting that investors "sell."

While the message lacks a supporting thesis, one could conclude that Burry expects a meaningful correction in traditional markets. Considering the 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index at 75%, the odds of a BTC price retrace become evident.

Bitcoin (BTC) preserved its active trading range into the Feb. 1 Wall Street open as markets looked to the day’s key macroeconomic data.

$23,500 becomes the level to beat for Bitcoin bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it continued to move in a narrow corridor around $23,000.

An upcoming interest rate hike and commentary from the United States Federal Reserve preoccupied traders across risk assets, potentially sparking fresh volatility in line with previous months.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was due to speak at 2:30 pm Eastern Time on the day.

On the Binance order book, resistance shifted higher on the day, broadening price targets in the event of a catalyst moving the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $23,000 on Feb. 1 after sealing its best January performance in 10 years.

End of Bitcoin bear market is “default view”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed a monthly close of around $23,100 for BTC/USD — its highest since July 2022.

The largest cryptocurrency finished the first month of the year up 39.6%, according to statistics from Coinglass.

The impressive performance emboldened bulls, many of whom had kept the faith despite mass misgivings from more conservative market participants.

“Bitcoin closes with a Monthly swing low,” trader, entrepreneur and investor Bob Loukas reacted.

Bitcoin (BTC) had a rough time all throughout 2022.

But fresh on-chain and futures market data show positive signs that the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization has started to recover.

After a bevy of short liquidations, the futures market is pointing toward renewed equilibrium. According to data from Glassnode, short position liquidations cleared out unhealthy market speculators, on-chain and exchange data now point to an improving spot market and exchange netflows.

A large group of investors that were previously at a loss is now back in the category that Glassnode analysts label as “unrealized profits.”

Massive short liquidations set the groundwork for new investors to thrive

Futures data typically hold an equilibrium between longs and shorts. As the market moves, investors tend to update their futures to avoid liquidation. Conversely, in mid-January, investors were caught off guard which resulted in an all-time high of 85% short liquidations.