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Bitcoin (BTC) slid below $29,000 around the May 4 Wall Street open as United States equities showed jitters over the resurgent banking crisis.

“Too much all at once” for U.S. banks

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD losing ground as the S&P 500 shed 0.7%.

The risk asset comedown accompanied more mayhem for U.S. regional bank stocks, with PacWest Bancorp once again leading the way, falling over 50% on the day.

The embattled lender had already seen major losses and, at the time of writing, was down 86.5% year-to-date. In a statement, the bank nonetheless described its position as “solid.”

As Cointelegraph reported, reassurances of U.S. authorities over the banking system stability appeared at odds with reality for many commentators, with confusion only increasing as the crisis continued.

For the past 14 days, cryptocurrency markets have been trading within an unusually tight 7.1% range. In other words, investors are unwilling to place new bets until there’s additional regulatory clarity, especially in the United States.

The total crypto market capitalization fell by 1% to $1.2 trillion over the seven days ending May 4, primarily as a result of Bitcoin’s (BTC) 1.1% price decline, Ether’s (ETH) 0.2% loss and BNB (BNB) trading down 1.4%.

Notice that the exact same $1.16 trillion–$1.22 trillion total market capitalization range previously stood for 12 days between March 29 and April 10. The conflicting forces: regulatory uncertainty weighing it down and the banking crisis pushing prices upward are likely the reason for the lack of risk appetite on both sides.

SEC’s crypto crackdown could backfire

The Coinbase exchange, for instance, has been battling the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding the need for clear rules for trading digital assets. The stakes were raised after the exchange was handed a Wells notice, a “legal threat” for “possible violations of securities laws,” on March 22.

However, the latest decision has been favorable to Coinbase, as the court has instructed the SEC to clarify the security rules for digital assets within 10 days.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $29,000 overnight into May 4 as the United States banking crisis risked spawning new victims.

Gold, Bitcoin benefit from U.S. banking mayhem

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a swift mood change for BTC/USD, which hit $29,242 on Bitstamp.

The pair had sunk to daily lows at the previous day’s Wall Street open as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.

At the same time, more U.S. regional bank stocks were suffering, with the trend remaining as the Fed confirmed its much-anticipated 0.25% hike.

One lender, PacWest Bancorp, reportedly announced that it was considering a buyout, pressuring the regional bank sector even further while boosting havens, including Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin (BTC) price has successfully defended the $28,000 support on May 2, but has yet to prove the strength needed to reclaim the $29,200 level from April 30.

$30K becomes crucial for Bitcoin bulls

Some analysts will pin the recent downtrend to the expectation of an interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on May 3, but in reality, the market is pricing 92% odds of a modest 25 basis point increase to its highest level since September 2007.

As the market intelligence platform Decentrader pointed out, the comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell are more likely to bring surprise elements, either pointing to further measures to slow down the economy or signaling higher odds of the terminal interest rate being close to 5%. Powell is set to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

From an employment perspective, the central bank has reason to believe that the market continues to overheat. The U.S. government reported 1.6 job openings for every unemployed worker in March. Moreover, according to the ADP National Employment report released on May 3, private payrolls increased by 296,000 jobs in April, well above the 148,000 market consensus.

However, raising interest rates has negative consequences for families and small businesses, in particular. Financing and mortgages become more costly, while investing in fixed income becomes more attractive. Such an undesired effect of curbing inflation could further shake the core of the financial system, as shown by the latest bank failure of First Republic Bank.

New meme-coin Pepe (PEPE) has entered a sharp correction phase after surging by more than 2,000% since its debut a few weeks ago.

On May 3, the PEPE price dropped to $0.00000089, down about 35% from its record high of $0.00000138 established two days ago. As a result of the correction, its market capitalization slipped by nearly $80 million, thus pushing it out of the top-100 top cryptocurrency index. 

A mix of technical and fundamental indicators hint at further downside for PEPE price. 

Retail interest falls

PEPE's daily trading volumes declined across centralized (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) as prices fell. The same happened to the Google trends for the keyword "Pepe Coin," whose score is down from 100 to 7 in a day, suggesting that the retail hype has subsided in the past 48 hours.

PEPE whale distribution is worrisome

The top 100 richest PEPE addresses, aka "whales," control 45% of the token's circulating supply, according to data tracked by CoinCarp.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit daily lows at the May 3 Wall Street open as markets counted down the hours to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Fed set to hike into banking crisis

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $28,152 on Bitstamp, down 2.2% from the day’s highs.

The pair continued volatility into the May 3 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the event that accompanies interest rate adjustments.

As Cointelegraph reported, market sentiment has priced in a 90%+ chance of the Fed hiking 0.25% to copy its March moves, with little expectations of a surprise instead.

The odds of the hike materializing stood at 83% at the time of writing, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, around 15% lower than the previous day.

Litecoin (LTC) can make some big gains versus Bitcoin (BTC), particularly as the August halving event gets closer, according to Litecoin's creator Charlie Lee.

Litecoin up 85% since record lows versus Bitcoin

Lee argues that LTC/BTC could rally to 0.025 BTC, or over 700%, in the next bull cycle, with Litecoin having "higher throughput by design, scalability with extension blocks, better fungibility, and privacy from MWEB."

Lee:

"I can see an upside target of 10% (0.025 LTC/BTC). In the next bull market, 5% (0.0125) shouldn't be too hard to achieve. I honestly don't see it going much below 1% (0.0025) on the downside. The next halving will be in ~92 days. This is going to be fun."

His statements appeared after Litecoin's 85% price recovery from its record low of 0.001716 BTC in June 2022. LTC is still down about 90% below its record high of 0.051 BTC from November 2013, owing to rising competition in the altcoin market.

Bitcoin (BTC) miners have profited roughly 37% from mining Bitcoin since its inception, new data reveals.

Calculations from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode suggest that since 2010, fees and block reward subsidies have netted miners over $50 billion.

Bitcoin miner revenue passes $50 billion mark

Amid an ongoing debate over miner costs and susceptibility to Bitcoin price dips, new figures suggest that miners are firmly in the black in the long term.

According to Glassnode, miners’ total all-time income is almost 40% higher than their estimated costs, coming in at $50.2 billion versus $36.6 billion, respectively.

Researchers generated the numbers using two metrics: thermocap and transaction fees, which are “the cumulative sum of issuance multiplied by spot price in addition to all-time generated fee revenue” and difficulty production cost.

The share of Ethereum (ETH) held by so-called whale addresses has dropped since Ethereum's Shapella upgrade in mid April, suggesting that large investors may be leaning bearish in t near term.

ETH whale population shrinks post-Shapella

The amount of Ether held by addresses with 1,000-10,000 ETH, or "whales," was over 14.033 million ETH on May 1, according to Glassnode data. In comparison, the count was 14.167 million ETH on April 12, when Shapella went live on Ethereum.

Interestingly, a week before the Shapella upgrade, the Ethereum whale cohort held 14.303 million ETH, the highest amount in 2023

"Shrimps" only ones buying ETH since Shapella

Ether's price is down over 3.5% since the Shapella upgrade— suggesting that several whales may have indeed "sold the news."

Interestingly, other address cohorts also showed a decline, including sharks (100-1,000 ETH), fishes (10-100 ETH), crabs (1-10 ETH), and even mega-whales (10,000+ ETH).

Bitcoin (BTC) has room to drop below $25,000 to flush out a recent influx of speculators, research shows.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode flagged the ongoing influence of “short-term holders” (STHs) on BTC price action.

Profitability reset point lies below $25,000

BTC/USD has struggled to overcome $30,000 resistance in recent weeks, and multiple fakeouts have frustrated Bitcoin bulls.

In its latest investigation into on-chain activity, Glassnode revealed that market newcomers may be responsible — speculative behavior, including profit-taking, has become prevalent in 2023.

Among the metrics contributing evidence is market value to realized value (MVRV), which tracks spot price and the on-chain cost basis of specific investor segments. STH-MVRV reflects the relationship as it impacts STHs, defined as those hodling Bitcoin for 155 days or less.

Ether’s (ETH) price has shown weakness after failing to break above the $1,950 resistance on April 26. The subsequent correction drove ETH to $1,810 on May 1, nearing its lowest level in four weeks. Curiously, the movement happened while First Republic Bank (FRB) was seized by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with JPMorgan to protect FRB depositors, estimating a $13 billion loss.

Commented on the latest major U.S. bank failure, UBS analyst Erika Najarian stated:

“This deal does not change the rates, recession and regulatory headwinds that regional banks are facing.“

ETH price ignores banking crisis

Curiously, the VIX indicator, which measures how traders are pricing the risks of extreme price oscillations for the S&P 500 index, reached its lowest level in 18 months at 15.6% on May 1.

Bitcoin (BTC) fought for $28,000 support on May 2 after the month opened to multiday lows.

BTC price: “Big volatility on the horizon”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it returned to the $28,000 mark on Bitstamp.

The previous day’s Wall Street open had brought the latest wave of downside volatility, with the pair dipping below $27,700.

This followed a leg lower immediately after the weekly and monthly close, with $30,000 and upward feeling increasingly out of reach.

Market participants’ BTC price targets reflected the mood. Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, argued that a rematch with both $25,000 and $30,000 was still on the table.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $28,000 support after the May 1 Wall Street open as markets digested fresh United States banking jitters.

Suspicions mount over First Republic contagion

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to multi-day lows at the time of writing.

The pair continued a comedown that began after the weekly and monthly candle close, shedding over $1,000 since that time.

The start of the week saw a potential volatility catalyst during Asia trading as First Republic Bank was sold to JPMorgan Chase by the U.S. government.

Amid suspicions over the legitimacy of the move, First Republic became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw considerable volatility between April 25 and May 1, ranging between $27,200 and $30,000. From a trading perspective, the 10.5% move sounds alarming, resulting in $340 million in leveraged BTC futures contract liquidations.

However, from a broader angle, Bitcoin price is up 72% year-to-date in 2023, while the S&P 500 stock market index accumulated 9% gains.

BTC price climbs on weaker US dollar, banking crisis

Bitcoin’s bull run happened while the dollar strength index (DYX), which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of foreign exchanges, was nearing its lowest level in 12 months.

The indicator stands at 102, down from 105.3 eight weeks prior, as investors priced in higher odds of further interventions from the U.S. Treasury to contain the banking crisis.

On May 1, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation closed down First Republic Bank (FRB) and transferred control to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC then entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with JPMorgan to protect depositors. FRB joined Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to become the latest U.S. bank to collapse in 2023.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week digesting major macroeconomic news as the United States sees the second-largest bank failure in its history.

After a sideways weekend, BTC/USD was already volatile into the new weekly and monthly candle as the downside kicked in.

After steadying below $29,000, BTC price action is already facing more potential pressure, with First Republic Bank being placed in public receivership and taken over by JPMorgan Chase.

The move, announced during Asia trading but before the Wall Street open, precedes an already heavy week in which the Federal Reserve will reveal its next interest rate shift.

With much to take in, the potential for continued surprises in crypto markets is clearly evident.