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Risky assets marginally extend their up-move in April. The S&P 500 Index rose around 1.5% in April while Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end the month with gains of more than 4%. Could the rally continue in May or is it time for a pullback?

The recovery could face headwinds if the United States banking woes escalate further. JPMorgan Asset Management chief investment officer Bob Michele said in an interview with Bloomberg that the turmoil at First Republic Bank is unlikely to be limited to the bank only, and could cause a domino effect.

If that happens, then the U.S. equity markets may witness a correction. However, it is difficult to predict how Bitcoin will react to such a crisis because, in the past few days, BTC price rose while legacy banking troubles deepened. But in case of a major upheaval in the U.S. banking sector, it is possible that Bitcoin will also face a correction sooner or later.

In the near term, Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing strength. Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that may outperform over the next few days.

Bitcoin price analysis

After two days of low volatile trading in Bitcoin, the bulls are trying to assert their supremacy on April 30.

It now costs Bitcoin (BTC) miners at least $17,000 to produce one BTC in the U.S. versus the $5,000-10,000 range a year ago, according to Bitcoin mining data resource Hashrate Index and Luxor.

Bitcoin hashprice has dropped 58% in a year

Unsurprisingly, soaring electricity rates across the U.S. states have contributed to rising Bitcoin mining costs.

Notably, between January 2022 and January 2023, the commercial electricity tariff surged at an average of 10.71% per U.S. state, higher than the average consumer price index surge of 6.4%.

Coupled with Bitcoin's downward performance in 2022, which saw a maximum drawdown from around $48,000 to below $15,000, it is evident that active miners generated consistent losses due to the increase in operational costs and lower returns.

But this changed in Q1 of this year as the miners' hashprice, or the USD price per tera-hash per second per day (TH/s/d), rose 31% thanks to Bitcoin's price recovery toward $30,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) narrowed volatility on April 30 as the weekly and monthly candle closes loomed.

Trader sees BTC price upside capped at $32,500

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it loitered just above $29,000 throughout the weekend.

After unsettled price action earlier in the week, Bitcoin returned to sideways trading, with markets witnessing an eerie calm despite the potential for volatility thanks to lower weekend liquidity.

As such, traders were hopeful that no unwelcome surprises would greet the candle closes.

“Nothing has changed,” popular trader Elizy summarized in part of a recent Twitter analysis of the three-day chart.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed choppy at the April 28 Wall Street open, while United States macro data conformed to expectations.

PCE offers “nothing to shock”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD fluctuating around the $29,000 mark on Bitstamp.

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data, tipped as the macro event of the week, failed to deliver a performance catalyst as numbers broadly conformed to what markets had already priced in.

“The trend is our friend, however core sticky for now - hovering at 4.6% since December,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro responded, adding in Twitter comments that the latest numbers were “overall nothing to shock the market.”

U.S. equities thus showed little movement at the open, while for Bitcoin, Binance order book data showed modest bid liquidity moving toward spot price, compressing potential volatility.

On April 26, House Republicans scarcely passed their bill to increase the U.S. debt ceiling. This led to analysts already weighing its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), ranging from extremely bearish to overly bullish.

Ultimately, U.S. dollar liquidity is the key to both of these opposing viewpoint.

"Deflationary recession" to produce 2020-like BTC rally?

Some analysts, including Jesse Meyers, the COO of investment firm Onramp, believe raising the debt ceiling would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money, thus boosting capital inflows into "risky" assets like Bitcoin.

The debt ceiling represents the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.

Related: Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?

Bitcoin (BTC) traders may be gearing up for a sell-off as data shows tens of thousands of coins moving to exchanges.

The latest figures from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirm that global trading volume leader Binance’s BTC balance rose by over 50,000 BTC ($1.5 billion) in the past 30 days.

Binance takes lion’s share of exchange BTC balance increase

With BTC/USD setting multimonth highs regularly since mid-March, the temptation to sell for both long-term and short-term holders has undoubtedly increased.

As Cointelegraph reported, actual selling pressure has thus far remained muted by historical standards, but on-chain data suggests this could easily change.

According to Coinglass, Binance alone now has 51,000 BTC more on its books than 30 days ago. Compared with March 10, when BTC/USD briefly challenged $20,000 support, its balance is up by almost 100,000 BTC, separate data from analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms.

The Ether price has held above $1,820 for the past three weeks, despite facing a 13.7% correction between April 18-21. Still, analyzing a broader time frame provides a more constructive view, as Ether (ETH) has gained 20.8% in three months while the S&P 500 stock market index has stood flat. However, according to ETH options and futures metrics, the gains have not been enough to make professional investors bullish.

Worsening macroeconomic conditions have driven cryptocurrencies’ positive momentum in 2023, including the ongoing banking crisis. According to Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, if the government refuses to bail out First Republic Bank, it could set off a dangerous chain reaction of insolvencies.

Recession risks increased after the United States economy grew at a modest 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, well below the 2% expected. Meanwhile, inflation continues to hurt the economy, as the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.2% in the first quarter.

Driving the bearishness from whales and market makers is the diminishing total value locked (TVL) and average transaction fees above $4 since February on the Ethereum network. According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum decentralized applications reached 15.3 million ETH in TVL on April 24. That compares with 22.0 million ETH six months prior, a 30% decline.

Ether’s inability to break above $2,000 could also reflect traders anticipating the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again on May 3. Higher interest rates make fixed-income investments more attractive, while businesses and families face additional costs to refinance their debts, creating a bearish environment for risk assets, including ETH.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $29,000 at the April 27 Wall Street open as United States GDP growth missed expectations.

U.S. GDP figures reveal surprise slowdown

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD once again stagnant after flash volatility the day prior.

The largest cryptocurrency had liquidated over $300 million in long and short positions after a snap correction over claims that Mt. Gox and U.S. government bitcoins had left their wallets.

A subsequent rebound rescued some of the losses, but $30,000 remained out of reach as macro data failed to offer a suitable catalyst.

This came in the form of GDP growth, which at 1.1% fell far short of predictions.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls might be disappointed after the $31,000 resistance proved stronger than expected on April 14. However, looking at a broader time frame, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in 2023, gaining over 74% year-to-date at $29,000.

Positioning for weaker dollar, debt ceiling

It is worth noting that gold is merely 4% behind its all-time high, likely indicating a weaker U.S. dollar as investors increase the odds of recession and further fiscal turmoil for the world’s biggest economy.

Behind the bullish price momentum for Bitcoin are the weakness in the U.S. financial system, namely the $100 billion in quarterly net withdrawals at First Republic Bank and the legislative effort to approve an increase to the urgent $31.6 billion national debt ceiling.

For Bitcoin investors, a financial crisis is a net positive as it forces the U.S. Federal Reserve to expand its emergency funding programs and take out additional unprofitable long-term debt from the system.

Cryptocurrency traders are uncomfortable with the regulatory environment, and the April 25 statement from the New York Federal Reserve further added to the uncertainty. The guidelines disclosed could potentially hinder the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin issuer Circle’s access to the Fed’s securities reverse-repurchase program, the safest vehicle to get yield on deposits.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to a familiar range on April 27 as panic over alleged Mt. Gox and United States government transactions faded.

"Rough" price action keeps Bitcoin traders cautious

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD traded near $29,000 on Bitstamp, up nearly $2,000 from the prior day’s low.

Snap volatility had kicked in following the Wall Street open as bulls’ trip to $30,000 was rudely interrupted by fears that BTC from wallets controlled by the U.S. government and entities related to defunct exchange Mt. Gox were on the move.

As Cointelegraph reported, the claims turned out to be false, but not before wiping a large slice of open interest from derivatives markets and sending BTC/USD down 7%.

A subsequent recovery returned the pair to $29,500 before consolidation kicked in.

Bitcoin (BTC) tagged $30,000 into the April 26 Wall Street open as bulls gained further momentum from United States banking woes.

Hayes: "Uncertainty" driving BTC price, gold

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed as it briefly reclaimed the psychological line in the sand, capping 11% gains versus its local lows from April 24.

The pair continued to respond positively to the rapidly-evolving next chapter of the U.S. banking crisis. This centered around First Republic Bank, which revealed a $100 billion reduction in deposits this week.

The U.S. government was reportedly uninterested in intervening on the day, according to a source cited by CNBC, as the bank’s stock, FRC, opened down another 22% before being halted for volatility. Weekly stock price losses thus totaled over 50%.

Responding, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, smelled blood.

Bitcoin (BTC) price broke above $29,800 on April 26, totaling 9.6% gains in 24 hours, reaching as high as $30,024 on Bitstamp. Some commentators argue that the 50% drop in First Republic Bank (FRB) shares on April 25 has been the catalyst for Bitcoin’s rally.

Bitcoin gains from banking crisis 

Despite the positive shift, its price remains 22.5% down in twelve months, which explains why bulls are far from optimistic. 

The FRB debacle comes after the bank’s earnings report, which showed that clients’ deposits shrank by 40.8% during the quarter as customers pulled out their money. Notably, the bank received a $30 billion cash injection in March, but the quarterly outflows topped $100 billion.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it would hike interest rates above 5%. By increasing the cost of capital, the central bank might succeed in taming inflation, but the unintended consequence is a weaker economy and a bearish market structure for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Some analysts pin the $31,000 resistance rejection to the harsh cryptocurrency regulatory environment, especially in the U.S.— which became more evident after Coinbase filed a court action to force the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to clarify industries’ rules.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $29,000 on April 26 after overnight gains marked a solid rebound.

Bitcoin short squeeze risk on the rise

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD advancing swiftly during Asia trading to deliver 6.5% upside versus its local lows.

The pair had begun its comeback after the April 25 Wall Street open amid fresh concerns over United States bank stability.

These came as First Republic Bank reported a dramatic fall in deposits, its share price tanking 50% on the day.

A familiar catalyst for crypto markets, the banking crisis reminded investors that it had gone nowhere since March, with crypto sources already predicting its next chapter.

Bitcoin (BTC) is done with its bear market, but the coming months may see a return to $20,000.

That is the outlook for Philip Swift, a veteran Bitcoin market analyst who co-founded trading suite DecenTrader and data resource Look Into Bitcoin.

In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, Swift takes a look at what the near to long-term future holds for BTC price action.

After predicting the end of the bear market at the end of 2022, Swift is sticking by his appraisal of underlying price strength, while staying cautious on the odds of a deeper correction than last week’s 10% dip.

Bulls face many obstacles on the road to new all-time highs, he said, with government policy particularly troubling when it comes to potential price suppression.

Last week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record high in Argentine peso (ARS) terms following persistent inflation in Argentina.

Argentina’s inflation pushes BTC’s price to all-time high

On April 18, the BTC-to-ARS exchange rate crossed over 6.59 million ARS, according to aggregated price data tracked by Google Finance.

Since the peak, the rate has corrected to around 6 million ARS, down 9%, but still up more than 100% year-to-date (YTD).

Bitcoin’s growth in the Argentine markets coincides with the continuous ARS devaluation. For instance, traders were paying as low as 460 ARS to buy $1 from the black market on April 24 — more than double the official spot rate that pays 220 ARS for the dollar. 

FMyA, a United States-based consultancy firm, noted that the Argentine central bank’s reserves have dropped by half to an estimated $1.3 billion since 2019.

Bitcoin (BTC) is keeping everyone on their toes when it comes to price trajectory — where will it go next?

BTC price down 10% after bad week 

After a week in which BTC/USD fell by 10%, sentiment is getting a reset and traders are eyeing key support levels closer to $25,000.

At the same time, consensus is far from unanimous over market health — some believe that the next phase of upside is around the corner.

As macro markets gear up for a new period of crucial data and moves from the United States Federal Reserve, volatility catalysts are waiting in the wings, with Bitcoin potentially not staying calm for long.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the upcoming scenarios that could cause BTC/USD to quit its short-term sideways trading pattern.