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Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a new “speculation cycle” typical of a bull run, new analysis says.

In a tweet on May 16, Philip Swift, creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, revealed history repeating itself according to the RHODL Ratio metric.

RHODL Ratiocreator on BTC price: "Zoom out"

RHODL Ratio is a method of tracking BTC price behavior based on the realized price of the supply — the price at which coins last moved.

Created by Swift in 2020, it compares the relative ages of coins which moved one week ago to those which moved 1-2 years ago.

This ratio gives an insight into the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs), and by extension the extent to which speculation is present on the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) looked poised to give up $27,000 as support on May 17, with traders waiting for new lows.

Whales meet low liquidity

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near $26,800 at the time of writing.

The pair had staged multiple crosses of the $27,000 mark the day before, with that level forming a low-timeframe focus now at risk of breaking down.

“3 wave up into resistance, followed by a retest and a rejection off resistance zone,” popular trader Crypto Tony summarized about recent activity.

He added that a potential target to wait for was now $26,400.

Since May 12, Ether’s price has been struggling to sustain its $1,800 support level, as investors face pressures from a worsening crypto regulatory environment and the Ethereum network’s high gas fees. Also negatively impacting Ether’s (ETH) price are three indicators signaling reduced demand for its decentralized applications (DApps) and a lack of leverage buying demand from professional traders.

Regulators signal their plan to further limit crypto intermediaries

According to court documents filed on May 15, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given a formal response in court in relation to Coinbase’s petition for clear crypto regulation. The SEC stated that any rulemaking may take years and that enforcement actions will continue in the meantime.

On May 16, the Economic and Financial Affairs Council of the European Union — comprising finance ministers of all member states — approved the highly anticipated Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which will come into effect by mid-2024.

Some argue that MiCA facilitates business growth in the region. Others focus on the privacy risks for personal users’ data and the risks imposed on non-custodial solutions, including decentralized finance applications.

The drop in DApp deposits is concerning

The price of Lido DAO (LDO) has rebounded to its three-week high of $2.21 as of May 16, up 40% when measured from its local low of $1.57, established four days ago.

This impressive double-digit recovery appeared in tandem with other top-ranking crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). However, LDO has greatly outperformed the broader crypto market (TOTAL), which is up only 4.5% since May 12.

But what are the reasons why Lido DAO is outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market right now? Let’s take a closer look at the three biggest factors likely driving up LDO’s price.

Ether depositors’ return after Shapella

The LDO price recovery coincides with the net positive inflows into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) contract in recent days.

Lido DAO is primarily an Ethereum liquid staking platform. It enables users to pool their funds to become validators on Ethereum, thus bypassing the network’s requirement of depositing at least 32 ETH.

Bitcoin (BTC) surfed $27,000 on May 16 as traders stayed buoyant about upside continuation.

$24,000 BTC price still in play, says trader

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD still focusing on the $27,000 mark, having dipped to $26,870 after the daily close.

Still lacking direction, traders hoped the pair would either attempt to exit its narrow range or touch more significant levels up or down.

For popular trader Crypto Ed, potential targets included the “gap” in CME futures created at the weekend.

“It’s really on the lower timeframe where the action is now; higher timeframe is not really exciting,” he summarized in his latest YouTube update on the day.

Bitcoin’s price broke below its 55-day resistance at $27,000 on May 12, down 12.3% in 30 days. But more importantly, it decoupled from the S&P 500 Index, which is basically flat from 30 days ago and 15% below its all-time high.

As the chart indicates, for some reason, Bitcoin (BTC) investors believe that the favorable macroeconomic trends for risk markets were overshadowed by the increasing risk perception of the cryptocurrency sector.

Financial crisis could fuel Bitcoin’s price increase

For starters, there’s the impending United States government debt ceiling crisis, which, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, could cause an “economic and financial catastrophe." The increased risk of default should, in theory, be beneficial for scarce assets, as investors seek shelter from a weaker U.S. dollar.

The $5.6 trillion commercial real estate market in the U.S. is subject to additional risks due to high interest rates and troubled regional banks. Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer Anne Walsh stated, “We’re likely going into a real estate recession, but not across the entire real estate market."

There is also positive news on the cryptocurrency regulatory front, as the industry gathers additional support against the regulatory efforts of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed an amicus brief on May 9, defending the Coinbase exchange and accusing the SEC of deliberately creating a precarious and uncertain landscape.

Bitcoin saw five-day highs on May 15 as a rebound continued after the Wall Street open.

$40,000 “still a magnet” for BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $27,666 on Bitstamp.

Bitcoin (BTC) on Bitstamp held strength on hourly timeframes after a weekly close just below the $27,000 mark.

With United States equities in a tight range on the day, crypto analysts looked for cues over where markets might go next.

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the outlook was good.

Bitcoin (BTC) is fighting for the bull trend as the new week begins with the market acting within a crucial zone.

After closing the weekly candle at just below $27,000, BTC/USD is attempting to cement support as a stubborn trading zone holds.

The stakes are already high, with last week seeing a flash dip below $26,000 and two-month lows for Bitcoin, making traders fearful of a larger bearish breakdown to come.

While this has not materialized, nerves remain on both shorter and longer timeframes.

Where is price action likely headed next? A relatively calm week of macro triggers means less chance of volatility from external sources.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to recover $27,000 into the May 14 weekly close as volatility picked up out of hours.

BTC price gains over 7% in two days

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $27,200 on Bitstamp.

Its highest in several days, the performance reflected gains of around 7.5% versus local lows from the week’s final Wall Street trading session.

“Strong movements on Bitcoin as it swept all the lows in recent moves and grinds back up to $27.2K,” an optimistic Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

“Patience, as flipping $27.2K is the first serious trigger for continuation upwards. In that case, close to a temporary bottom & potentially new highs to $36-42K still possible.”

Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied nearly 60% to around $27,000 in 2023 amid anticipations that the Federal Reserve would pause its quantitative tightening amid the U.S. banking crisis. Still, BTC price has failed to move beyond $30,000 decisively.

Buying exhaustion at this key psychological level led to a price correction toward $25,000 over the past week. Interestingly, the decline has strengthened Bitcoin's correlation with several traditional financial metrics.

But does this raise the risk of Bitcoin continuing its downtrend in Q2? Let's have a closer look.

U.S. dollar index's double bottom

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, rose 1.4% to 102.70 in the week ending May 14. The rise marked the dollar's best week since September 2022.

Interestingly, the dollar's rise left behind a potential double bottom pattern, confirmed by two low points near a similar horizontal price level of around 100.75. A double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal setup, suggesting DXY could rise toward 105.85 in the next few months.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to pass $27,000 on May 13 after a “scam wick” produced new two-month lows.

Traders: BTC price must retain $26,500

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it recovered from a flash dip to $25,800 on Bitstamp.

The pair saw weakness after the start of the week’s final Wall Street trading session, briefly cutting through the key 100-day and 200-week moving averages (MAs) before rebounding.

As the weekend began, market participants were split over the likely course of events to come.

“Nice daily close. Has to hold 26.5K going forward. That’s the line in the sand for me,” Daan Crypto Trades told Twitter followers.

The market valuation of Pepecoin (PEPE) has dropped by 65% as of May 12, a week after its record high of $1.54 billion.

Profit-taking appears to be the primary reason behind the extreme price correction, after it rallied from almost nothing to as high as $0.00000372 after its launch on April 14, while emerging as the fastest-growing ERC-20 token in the crypto market's history.

What is PEPE?

Pepecoin captures people's attention by mimicking features of memecoins, based on popular internet memes. The most well-known is Dogecoin (DOGE), which uses the famous Shiba Inu dog meme as its logo. 

Pepecoin is based on the "Pepe The Frog" meme, created by Matt Furie in his 2005 cartoon “Boys Club.” The humanoid frog went on to become a mainstream meme in the mid-2010s, with singers Katy Perry and Nicki Minaj using it in their tweets.

In 2021, BarnBridge founder Tyler Ward launched a low-resolution Pepecoin NFT collection that reaped over $60 million in sales on the OpenSea auction platform.

Bitcoin’s price (BTC) broke below its 55-day support at $27,000 on May 12. In result, the two-day, 7% correction to $26,155 caused $100 million worth of long BTC futures contracts to be liquidated.

However, Bitcoin margin and futures markets displayed strength during the down-move, fueling hope of a recovery toward $28,000.

Regulatory pressure, stronger U.S. dollar bite

Regulatory uncertainty in the United States significantly increased after Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital received yet another subpoena. The publicly traded mining company informed investors on May 10 that it received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning whether it may have violated federal securities laws, among other things, by using related-party transactions.

Furthermore, there’s the additional risk of the 627,522 Bitcoins held by the Grayscale GBTC Trust Fund, which has been trading at a steep discount for over a year while Grayscale’s holding company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), struggles with some failing subsidiaries. DCG’s crypto lending and trading firm, Genesis Capital, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January.

Despite having separate corporate structures, Genesis Capital had "intercompany obligations" with the holding company DCG, so the consequences for the administration of the Grayscale funds are unknown. Additionally, the group reportedly owes Gemini's clients about $900 million, and the U.S. SEC charged Genesis and Gemini in January.

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering prime “buy the dip” territory as the clock ticks down to the 2024 block subsidy halving.

That is the conclusion of several well-known market participants this month, with Bitcoin just one year away from its “very interesting” next halving.

Bitcoin vs. the halving: Time to buy?

Bitcoin halving cycles are known to follow patterns when it comes to price activity in a given period.

These four-year “epochs” have so far contained a macro high and macro low for BTC price, with those events likewise four years apart from one another.

What’s more, in each cycle, the macro low has tended to occur a little over one year before the next halving. For longtime Bitcoin figures, including crypto media guru Pete Rizzo, there is thus little reason to believe that the future will be substantially different.

Bitcoin (BTC) neared two-month lows on May 12 amid fears that a “head-and-shoulders” pattern would put bears ahead.

Analysis of BTC price: “Welcome to bearadise”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $26,100 on Bitstamp — its lowest since March 17.

Despite encouraging macroeconomic conditions for risk assets, Bitcoin failed to capitalize on the potential for gains as bid liquidity headed lower.

“Welcome to bearadise,” on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators summarized.

A chart uploaded to Twitter the day before showed principal buy support now around $25,750, with BTC/USD eating liquidity higher overnight.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $27,000 after the May 11 Wall Street open as bulls failed to show strength.

BTC price “rolls over” after brief recovery

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it risked a further loss of support.

After a modest recovery from local lows seen the day prior, the pair remained weak, even as new United States macro data offered bullish cues.

“Dump was retraced but then price quickly rolled over again,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized.

“We’re still trading at the range lows and until broken I think shorts aren’t great R:R. Bulls need to show strength by retaking the daily open for me to consider a possible reversal scenario.”