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Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week on a firm footing as bulls send BTC price to a new 10-month high weekly close.

After a relatively calm week, last-minute volatility is getting traders excited at the prospects of a repeat attack on $30,000 resistance — but a lot stands in the way.

In what is set to be a significant week of macroeconomic data releases, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for March is due April 12, along with fresh insights into Federal Reserve policy.

Add to that the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade and it’s a recipe for volatility. How will Bitcoin react?

Volatility correlations between the largest cryptocurrency and traditional risk assets are inverting, data shows, while sentiment data also suggests little appetite for sudden selling among the hodler base.

The long weekend has not produced any fireworks in Bitcoin (BTC) price, which continues to trade inside an ever-narrowing range. Bitcoin is on track to form a third consecutive Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This suggests that the Bitcoin bulls and the bears are not clear about the next directional move.

It is not only Bitcoin that is stuck inside a range. On April 7, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, tweeted that the S&P 500 Index had been stuck inside a range for the past nine months and a breakout was due “sooner or later.”

Bitcoin’s failure to break above the $30,000 level has attracted profit-booking in several altcoins but a few have witnessed shallow pullbacks. This indicates that traders are holding on to their positions expecting a move higher.

Let’s study the charts of select altcoins that may turn up and start an uptrend if Bitcoin breaks out to the upside. What are the resistance levels above which these five cryptocurrencies turn bullish?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been trading inside a tight range for the past two days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges are followed by an expansion in volatility.

Ethereum's Ether (ETH) token dropped by over 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. But ETH/BTC may wipe its year-to-date (YTD) losses entirely in April as Ethereum's long-awaited Shanghai hard fork is just days away.

The upgrade is set for April 12, enabling Ethereum stakers to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards — worth over $2 billion as of April 8. 

ETH price undergoes key technical bounce

Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For instance, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April so far.

As a result, the ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a nearly 8% rebound since March 20. 

The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a "sell zone" in the chart below.

Bitcoin (BTC) reduced its narrow trading range even further into April 8 as risk assets waited for fresh catalysts. 

Hopes for BTC price "impulse" to follow sideways action

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near $28,000 on Bitstamp.

The pair continued sideways behavior into the weekend after the Wall Street trading week offered few surprises.

Despite calls for $25,000 and $30,000 to enter as near-term targets, increasing order book liquidity either side of spot price appeared to offer the market increasingly little room for maneuver.

This liquidity remained in force on the day, with monitoring resource Material Indicators capturing the phenomenon on the Binance order book.

Despite regulatory pressure and worsening macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated bullishness holding near $28,000 for the past week. Furthermore, professional traders have maintained leveraged long positions on margin and in futures markets, indicating strength.

On the regulatory front, on April 4, the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce agreed to move forward and remove incentives for miners operating within the state's regulatory environment. If passed, Senate Bill 1751 would set a cap on compensation for load reductions on Texas' power grid during emergencies.

Risk of recession grows against rate hikes 

The risk of a recession grew after applications for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week ending March 25 were revised to 246,000, up 48,000 from the initial report.

Furthermore, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated on April 6 that economies in the U.S. and Europe should continue to struggle as higher interest rates weigh on demand.

Regarding the banking crisis, Georgieva advised central banks to keep raising interest rates, adding, "concerns remain about vulnerabilities that may be hidden, not just at banks but also non-banks — now is not the time for complacency."

Bitcoin (BTC) could rally toward $50,000 in 2023, according to a historical price fractal highlighted by popular market analyst Mags.

Bitcoin price trend in 2015 vs. 2023

The chart fractal highlights the similarities between Bitcoin’s ongoing price trends and those recorded after the completion of the 2013–2015 bear market.

That includes Bitcoin’s consolidation inside the $200–$300 range between January 2015 and August 2015, which appears identical to its consolidation between the $18,500–$25,000 range after the supposed completion of its 2021–2022 bear market.

BTC’s price broke above the $16,000–$25,000 range in March 2023, prompting Mags to highlight its resemblance to the breakout above the $200–$300 range in October 2015.

Since this resulted in a rally toward $700 in June 2016, the analyst sees the scenario potentially repeating in 2023, with BTC’s price doubling to $50,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed little interest in moving higher at the April 7 Wall Street open as fresh United States macro data boosted bets on further interest rate hikes.

Analyst: Fed will keep hiking “until something breaks”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it drifted around $27,900 on Bitstamp.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures, the main macro data focus of the week, came in slightly below expectations, indicating unemployment rising more slowly than predicted.

This in turn raised market expectations that the Federal Reserve would persist in raising interest rates to combat inflation — at the expense of crypto and risk asset performance.

The odds of another 25-basis-point rate hike in May topped 70% on the day, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, having previously circled 50%.

XRP (XRP) has risen by an impressive 60% in the first quarter of 2023, helped by rising speculation over Ripple's legal win versus the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and broader bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The XRP/USD pair now eyes more gains in the second quarter, primarily due to a classic bullish continuation pattern.

XRP price paints bull pennant

Late March, XRP broke above its multi-month ascending trendline resistance, averting a potential 35% correction. The rebound reached $0.58 on March 29, its highest level since May 2022.

Now, XRP has been consolidating sideways in what appears to be a bull pennant. This bullish continuation pattern forms when the price consolidates inside a symmetrical triangle after undergoing a strong rally.

A bull pennant resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. The pattern's breakout target is obtained by adding the height of the previous uptrend (flagpole) to the breakout point.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to a narrow trading range into April 7 as crypto analysts awaited the week’s main United States macroeconomic data.

$30,000 or $25,000 for Bitcoin?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed another day’s ranging around $28,000 for BTC/USD.

The pair had shunned volatility over most of the week, but now faced nonfarm payroll (NFP) numbers as a final potential catalyst for risk assets.

“Expectations are that we’ll be seeing 3.6%, similar to last month. Based on the financial numbers of this week, I’d rather expect 3.7-3.8%,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, summarized about his expectations.

“Result; $DXY down, $BTC unchanged and indices down/up depending on how far the outlier will be.”

Trader Joe has risen to the top five decentralized exchanges by trading volume after the launch of its V2 platform on Arbitrum on Feb. 1, 2023. 

The project launched a liquidity incentive program to boost deposits for ARB, ETH and USDC trading which shared 300,000 JOE token rewards worth around $171,000. The incentive program ends on April 6.

The project’s social media account reported that Trader Joe accounted for 15.7% of the total ARB trading volume in the first week.

While JOE token incentives played a hand in increasing the liquidity for ARB token, innovation from the team in developing the capital efficiency of the DEX is the primary reason behind its growth.

Trader Joe climbs up the ranks in DEX space

Trader Joe launched a Liquidity Book (LB) model with its V2 upgrade in Q4 2022, which competes against the Uniswap’s (UNI) V3 liquidity model.

Bitcoin's (BTC) 43% rally between March 10 and March 20 surprised options traders and this is proven by the minimal14% of the $1.12 billion open interest set to expire on April 7 being placed at $28,000 and higher. 

The positive price movement can be partially attributed to an increase in commodity demand, as investors perceive risks in the central bank's emergency funding programs, as injecting liquidity causes inflationary upward pressure.

According to Urban Angehrn, CEO of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), if Credit Suisse had not been rescued, "many other Swiss banks would probably have faced a run on deposits." Angehrn added that, "there was a high probability that the resolution of a global systemically important bank would have led to contagion effects and jeopardized financial stability in Switzerland and globally."

Investors' appetite for commodities vastly increased after the U.S. Treasury Department reportedly discussed the possibility of expanding the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insurance for bank deposits on March 21. Oil prices measured by the WTI have rallied 23.5% since March 20, and gold broke above $2,000 on April 5 — its highest daily close since Aug. 2020.

An unexpected shockwave on a $33 trillion asset class that was previously thought to be a safe haven for inflation could have benefited the commodity sector as well. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has issued a warning about the commercial real estate market, predicting trouble with refinancing.

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto may yet see a long-term correction thanks to central banks keeping liquidity tight, Bloomberg warned.

In its latest research, Bloomberg Intelligence revealed a cool stance on the ongoing 2023 crypto market rally.

Bloomberg: Expecting BTC price to hold “may be illogical”

Despite gaining 70% in Q1, Bitcoin is not convincing everyone that it will continue to climb or even maintain current levels near $30,000.

Examining the macroeconomic climate, Bloomberg Intelligence became the latest voice to note the close relationship between crypto performance and global central bank liquidity levels.

As inflation bites, banks have been withdrawing liquidity from the economy, with risk assets declining as a result — including crypto. The United States Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT), which began in late 2021, coincided with the current all-time high for Bitcoin.

Tether (USDT) continues to benefit from the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin industry with its market capitalization growing significantly in Q1 2023 at other stablecoins' expense.

Tether market cap reaches $80 billion

On April 6, the circulating market cap of USDT surpassed $80 billion for the first time since May 2022 with a gain of $15 billion so far in 2023.

On the other hand, the market caps of its chief rivals, namely USD Coin (USDC) and Binance USD (BUSD), fell by about $12 billion and $9.4 billion, respectively.

Tether benefits from non-U.S. status

Crypto traders opted for Tether given the growing concerns around USD Coin and Binance USD.

Notably, USDC market capitalization slipped due to its $3.3 billion exposure to the now-collapsed Silicon Valley and Silvergate banks. While BUSD suffered after New York regulators ordered Paxos to shut down the stablecon's issuance.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw another failure to exit a tight trading range into April 6 as $28,000 again hung in the balance.

Analysis sees traders “compressing” BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading below the the $28,000 mark at the time of writing.

The pair had approached $29,000 the day prior, eating into ask liquidity in what analysis called a “choreographed” move by whales.

That appeared to be true, as upward momentum soon faded and spot price remained in an increasingly narrow range.

The cloud of liquidity around $30,000 thus remained untested, much to the frustration of those hoping for an easy continuation of the 2023 upside.

With one week to go until the Ethereum Shanghai and Capella upgrades on April 12, all eyes are on Ether(ETH). The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization shrugged off rumors and regulatory action against exchanges to hit a seven-month high of $1,922 on April 5. 

Ether price has momentum, and here are three strong reasons why.

Multiple positive price achievements

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Ether price has posted gains on the seven-day, one-month and three-month timeframes despite market volatility. Ether price gains are also notable from the year-to-date perspective, showing 59% growth.

Ether’s ability to break resistance levels is leading some analysts to believe a $3,000 price target is on the horizon in Q2 2023. The trend shows that whale accumulation remains strong, growing by 0.5% in March, according to data from analytics provider Santiment.

The bullish buying activity may prove on-chain data correct that Ether sell pressure after the Shanghai hardfork will be a non-event.

Ether’s (ETH) price had been battling the $1,850 resistance level, but it broke through on April 4 when Ether rallied to a seven-month high above $1,900. Recently there has been a lot of speculation on Ether price catalysts. Let’s see if it’s possible to identify any fundamental factors behind the price movement. 

The upcoming Shanghai hard fork could be one factor in Ether’s recent bullish momentum. On April 12, the ability for validators to withdraw their deposits opens, giving staking participants freedom of movement but also creating a sell-off risk for Ether.

There are now 17.81 million ETH staked on the Beacon Chain, though some safeguards have been put in place to prevent a flood of Ether from disrupting the market. For example, because there is a daily limit of 2,200 withdrawals, the maximum daily unlocks are 70,000 ETH.

Scalability and selfish validator risks are still present

The upcoming Shanghai fork, however, does not address some of the most pressing issues currently plaguing the Ethereum network. Scalability continues to be a major issue for most users, as the average transaction fee has hovered around $5 in recent weeks, driving users away from decentralized applications (DApps).

Furthermore, the current consensus mechanism favors rogue miners who outperform other network participants, a phenomenon known as miner extractable value (MEV). They can quickly duplicate all winning deals from the mempool and execute their transactions ahead of others by ultimately deciding which transactions are completed in the block.

Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving cycle, a longtime market participant said.

In a new analysis published on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, doubled down on his bullish BTC price outlook for the years ahead.

Filbfilb keeps faith in Bitcoin halving cycles

With BTC/USD approaching $30,000 but traders highly suspicious of the 2023 rally, sky-high BTC price predictions have been poorly received.

Two current $1-million forecasts, from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase executive Balaji Srinivasan, respectively, continue to divide opinion in the aftermath of the 2022 crypto winter.

Considering whether either has merit, Filbfilb turned to raw math to determine some likely macro tops and bottoms for Bitcoin after its next block subsidy halving.