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After a failed rally above $31,000 on June 23, Bitcoin (BTC) has sustained the $30,300 resistance for the past three days. Curiously, this happened while gold reached its lowest level in three months, trading at $1,910 on June 22, down from a $2,050 peak in early May.

Investors now question how solid Bitcoin’s $30,000 support is. So analyzing what caused the recent price rally is essential to understanding how traders are positioned on BTC margin and futures markets.

Why did BTC price break above $30,000? 

Some analysts attribute Bitcoin’s recent 21.5% gains in 11 days to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing. But other events might have fueled the cryptocurrency gains. For instance, on June 26, HSBC Bank in Hong Kong reportedly introduced its first local cryptocurrency services using three listed crypto ETFs.

Moreover, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, a Bitcoin futures fund, experienced its largest weekly inflow in a year at $65 million, with its assets topping $1 billion. It was the first BTC-linked ETF in the United States and is one of the most popular among institutional investors.

But, more importantly, the U.S. crypto regulatory environment may be improving after a period marked by enforcement actions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) aimed at exchanges supposedly operating as unregistered securities brokers.

Bitcoin (BTC) may see a “market correction” should BTC price action go much beyond $33,000, research warns.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, analytics firm Glassnode flagged speculative selling risk on the horizon.

Bitcoin speculator profits average 12%

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) — the more speculative BTC investors — have returned to the spotlight this year.

Recently, their aggregate cost basis appeared to form wider BTC price support near $26,000. For Glassnode, which observed the cost basis’ significance in recent weeks, the opposite effect could soon appear.

As part of its coverage of short-term and long-term holder (LTH) activity, researchers highlighted levels at which speculators should take profit en masse.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $30,500 at the June 26 Wall Street open as bulls held newfound support.

Bitcoin ETF hype puts demands on U.S. session

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action retaining $30,000 around the weekly close.

The largest cryptocurrency began the week on a stable note as U.S. markets began trading, with observers hoping for a copycat move from the week prior.

Then, the United States provided the lion’s share of buyer interest, following multiple announcements of institutional product applications based on the Bitcoin spot price.

“Last week, most action and buying pressure, happened during the US Stock Market Open Hours,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a solid position above $30,000 after its latest rapid gains.

BTC price action continues to deliver on bulls’ expectations after weeks of sideways trading offered little relief. Can it continue?

That is the question on every trader’s mind this week. $30,000 held into the weekly close and beyond, but in a volatile crypto market, anything can and does happen.

The macroeconomic climate is somewhat “standard” for the final week of June, offering some potential risk asset price catalysts but avoiding several major data releases at once.

The weekend’s news out of Russia appears to have had little impact on market performance elsewhere, having mostly concluded before the start of the week’s trading.

Bitcoin (BTC) made a new 52-week high on June 23, indicating that bulls are on fire. Buyers have managed to hold onto a large part of the gains made during the week, signaling that they are in no hurry to book profits. Bitcoin climbed 16% this week, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which fell 1.39%.

Not only Bitcoin but even Ether (ETH) is showing signs of starting a bullish move. Glassnode data shows that Ether balances on exchanges dropped sharply in the past 30 days and hit a new low of 12.6%.

A similar dip in Ether exchange balances happened in November 2022, which was followed by a sharp rally of 33%. Although a rally is possible, traders need to be cautious because the fall in exchange balances this time may have been triggered by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s actions against Binance and Coinbase.

The crypto recovery is not limited to Bitcoin and Ether. Several altcoins have risen sharply from their respective lows, indicating solid buying at lower levels. This implies that the bearish sentiment may be waning.

Could the return of the buyers start a new bull move in cryptocurrencies, or will higher levels attract selling by the bears? Let’s study the charts of the top-five cryptocurrencies that may rise in the short term.

United States Government bonds, or Treasurys, have a tremendous influence across all tradeable markets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). In that sense, risk calculation in finance is relative, so every loan, mortgage and even cryptocurrency derivatives depend on the cost of capital attributed to U.S. dollars.

Assuming the worst-case scenario of the U.S. government eventually defaulting on its own debt, what happens to the families, businesses and countries holding those bonds? The lack of interest debt payments would likely cause a global shortage of U.S. dollars, triggering a cascading effect.

But, even if that scenario comes to fruition, history shows us that cryptocurrencies may work as a hedge during periods of uncertainty. For instance, Bitcoin vastly outperformed traditional wealth preservation assets during the U.S.-China trade war in May 2021. Bitcoin gained 47% between May 5 and May 31, 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 8.7%.

As the general public owns over $29 trillion in the U.S. Treasury, they are deemed the lowest risk in existence. Still, the price for each of those government bonds, or the yield traded, will vary depending on the contract maturity. Assuming there’s no counterparty risk for this asset class, the single most important pricing factor is the inflation expectation.

Let’s explore whether Bitcoin’s and Ether’s price will be impacted by the growing demand for U.S. Treasurys.

Bitcoin (BTC) tapped $31,000 for a third time this year on June 25 as the weekly close promised volatility.

BTC price challenges $31,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price movements focusing on yearly highs.

BTC price remained strong over the weekend as attention focused on geopolitical events in Russia and surrounding states.

With tensions lessening on the day, curiosity over markets’ reactions at the June 26 open remained, with the weekly candle close — already a classic source of volatility — coming first.

In a recent analysis, popular trader Rekt Capital put the “most bullish scenario” for the weekly close above the pivotal $30,000 mark.

Ethereum’s on-chain movements indicate bullish pressure building around Ether as its exchange balances reached an all-time low and staking deposits keep surging. 

Ether’s (ETH) technical charts suggest that the asset can reclaim $3,000 if buyers are able to push above the resistance between $1,900 and $2,000.

ETH held on exchanges hits an all-time low

Exchange balances for ETH reached a new low of 12.6%, dropping sharply in the last 30 days, according to Glassnode data. Reduced supply on exchanges is usually a bullish sign, as it means fewer tokens are readily available for selling.

The netflow volume of deposits and withdrawals from exchanges shows a steep surge in withdrawals at the start of June amid a regulatory crackdown on Binance and Coinbase.

The data should be taken with a grain of salt, as withdrawals were caused by investors spooked by centralized exchanges.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading above $31,000 after its 24.3% rally between June 15 and June 23, which caught many off guard. For bears, that meant facing $165 million in short futures contract liquidations, but the unexpected rally also brought some degree of discomfort for investors using Bitcoin derivatives.

Inflation remains the biggest question mark for traditional markets, a point highlighted by the recent 50-basis-point interest rate increase by the Bank of England, followed by similar moves in Norway and Switzerland, leading to the highest cost of capital in over a decade for the region.

In response to questions from lawmakers on the United States House Financial Services Committee on June 21, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that “the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go” and reiterated that “nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.”

According to JPMorgan strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, “the economy’s recent resilience may delay the onset of a recession,” so the impacts of the monetary tightening movement by the central bank are yet to be felt, “and ultimately a recession will likely be necessary to return inflation to target.”

Investors now question whether Bitcoin has the strength to trade above the $30,000 resistance amid the bearish pressure emerging from a potential economic recession and further central bank activity aimed at curbing the demand for capital.

A few months ago Pepecoin came and went, bringing quick, unimaginable riches to early investors and turning latecomers into reluctant bag holders.

While the chart resembles the standard crypto pump-and-dump scheme, Pepecoin’s (PEPE) price action this week suggests that the frog-themed token could be the newest contender to Dogecoin (DOGE) in the memecoin sector.

Dogecoin has dominated the memecoin space for years. Many copycats of dog-themed tokens, like Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Floki (FLOKI), have challenged DOGE’s position over the years but eventually faded.

SHIB briefly surpassed DOGE in market capitalization after rising 1,000% to a peak valuation of $41.1 billion on Oct. 28, 2021. At the time, Dogecoin’s market capitalization was $31.5 billion.

However, the near-vertical rally faded in the following weeks, and Dogecoin reclaimed its top spot in the memecoin category.

Bitcoin (BTC) denied the market fresh volatility at the June 23 Wall Street open as traders attempted to guess its next targets.

Bitcoin lacks “strong confirmation” of new upside

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action continuing to hover around $30,000.

A second day of sideways trading thus greeted market participants as prior upside stalled close to the yearly high at $31,000.

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that this area represented a popular invalidation point for those shorting BTC after its recent upside.

“Most of the shorts that entered during this consolidation will likely have their stops sitting above that local high at ~$30.8K,” part of a tweet read on the day.

Bitcoin’s 15% rally toward $30,300 between June 19 and June 21 caught most traders by surprise, triggering $125 million in liquidations of leveraged short futures contracts. Narrowing down the trigger for the rally is complicated, but some analysts point to the potential inflow of institutional investors if BlackRock’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) application gets regulatory approval.

ARK Invest CEO and chief investment officer Cathie Wood explained the rationale for the firm’s bullishness on the Bitcoin (BTC) price, specifically its $1 million target. According to Wood, even in a deflationary environment, Bitcoin can still outperform by offering a solution to the traditional financial system’s counterparty risk.

Furthermore, the negative regulatory pressure eased on June 16 after Binance was able to strike a temporary agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to avoid a potential asset freeze. The event further cemented Bitcoin bears’ opportunity to profit on the $715 million weekly BTC options expiry.

Bears made a mistake when BTC’s price dropped below $25,000

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $26,300 on June 10, fueling bearish bets by traders using options contracts. Such a level was only recouped on June 16, which explains why bears have concentrated their bets on Bitcoin trading below $27,000.

The 0.82 put-to-call ratio reflects the difference in open interest between the $415 million call (buy) options and the $300 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome will be lower, as bears were caught by surprise as Bitcoin gained 10% in two days.

Bitcoin (BTC) will hit new all-time highs in 2023, and October is the favorite month for it, a popular trader says.

In a Twitter update on June 22, Credible Crypto argued that the next four months should deliver the bullish BTC price momentum needed to tackle $69,000.

October “fairly logical” for new Bitcoin all-time highs

Bitcoin has put in a solid performance this month, and Credible Crypto is increasingly optimistic for continuation. To do so, BTC/USD needs to present increasingly larger green monthly candles to keep it in line with previous impulse periods.

“Whats clear with any parabolic advance is that momentum increases exponentially and peaks at the top. We can see this in both prior impulsive moves from 3k-14k and from 10k-60k,” he explained.

This time around, Bitcoin has delivered a successful retest of support on monthly timeframes, with $25,000 now possibly a springboard for a new “parabolic advance.”

Some news sources have been fond of making comparisons between Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action and that of other assets. In particular, the two most commonly compared asset classes are gold and tech stocks.

While a correlation holds, it tends to be a big news story. Throughout much of 2022 and early 2023, for example, the “Bitcoin trades in tandem with tech stocks” narrative was prevalent. Since that correlation has broken down, however, there doesn’t seem to be much related news coverage.

Now a new narrative has taken the spotlight: that of Bitcoin’s correlation to gold. Ever since the failures of Silvergate, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank in March, both assets have rallied. Both of these narratives make sense on the surface. If Bitcoin is to be seen as a speculative asset, then it might trade similar to a tech stock. And if Bitcoin is more of a safe-haven asset, a correlation to gold seems reasonable.

It’s important to note, however, that correlations can come and go. Just because two assets share a correlation for a time doesn’t always mean they share a place in the market long-term. And when zooming out to larger timeframes, it might be possible to rule out correlations of any kind.

Let’s examine both of these correlations on a one-year basis and see if there’s any merit to them.

Altcoins offer diverse, innovative features, promising technological advancements, and potentially lucrative investment opportunities.

Many-a-time specific altcoins post handsome gains that surpass Bitcoin (BTC), popularly known as altcoin season. However, K33 Research analysis shows over the long-term, ‘Bitcoin only’ has been a better investment strategy than an altcoin portfolio.

Altcoin portfolio underperformed Bitcoin over the long run

Bitcoin has had three consecutive bull and bear market cycles, starting in 2013 with the latest one coming in 2021. In each cycle, Bitcoin’s price rose parabolically in a very short span, usually a few months, after surpassing the peak of its previous cycle.

In 2013, BTC peaked around $1,175 and after that followed a downtrend for two years. At the time, the altcoin market was in its nascent stage. The fiat onramps to Bitcoin were limited and exchanges to convert them to altcoins were rare.

However, by the end of 2015, a number of altcoins, including the invention of Ethereum had occurred. A few exchanges had also propped up that supported conversion of Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies, paving the way for an altcoin market.

Bitcoin (BTC) will unlikely see its first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States soon.

That is the opinion of trading firm QCP Capital, which in its latest market update on June 22 warned over spot ETFs’ prospects.

SEC's Gensler presents Bitcoin ETF roadblock

BTC price action has offered more than 20% gains since BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, applied to list a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.

This would be the first of its kind, as all such spot ETF applications have been rejected so far by U.S. regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

While institutional involvement in the Bitcoin space is destined to increase, QCP says, the current makeup of the SEC means that spot ETFs getting the go-ahead remains unlikely.

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered near $30,000 on June 22 as traders sought opportunities to “buy the dip.”

Bitcoin dip-buyers "ready" for $28,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD volatility calming overnight after rapid gains.

BTC price performance had wowed the day prior, the largest cryptocurrency returning to the $30,000 mark for the first time since mid-April.

Now, hopes were increasing over a modest correction next, enabling lucrative entry points for further long positions.

“Bitcoin looking at this scenario,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, told Twitter followers.