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Bitcoin’s (BTC) lack of volatility has been the dominant discussion point among traders for the past two weeks and the current sideways trading within the $18,000 to $25,000 range has been in effect for 126 days. A majority of traders agree that a significant price move is imminent, but exactly what are they basing this thesis on? 

Let’s take a look at three data points that predict a spike in Bitcoin volatility.

Muted volatility and seller exhaustion

According to Glassnode research, the “Bitcoin market is primed for volatility,” with on- and off-chain data flashing multiple signals. The researchers note that 1-week realized volatility has fallen to 28%, a level that is typically followed by a sharp price move.

Exploration of Bitcoin’s aSOPR, a metric which “measures an average realized profit/loss multiple for spent coins on any given day” shows:

“A large divergence is currently forming between price action, and the aSOPR metric. As prices trade sideways or decline, the magnitude of losses that being locked in are diminishing, indicating an exhaustion of sellers within the current price range.”

The amount of Bitcoin (BTC) flowing out of cryptocurrency exchanges picked up momentum on Oct. 18, hinting at weakening sell-pressure, which could help BTC price avoid a deeper correction below $18,000.

Bitcoin forming a "bear market floor"

Over 37,800 BTC left crypto exchanges on Oct. 18, according to data tracked by CryptoQuant. This marks the biggest Bitcoin daily outflow since June 17, wh traders withdrew nearly 68,000 BTC from exchanges.

Moreover, over 121,000 BTC, or nearly $2.4 billion at current prices, has left exchanges in the past 30 days. 

A spike in Bitcoin outflows from exchanges is typically seen as a bullish signal because traders remove the coins that they wish to hold from platforms. Conversely, a jump in Bitcoin inflows into exchanges is typically considered bearish given that the supply is immediately available for selling increases.

For instance, Bitcoin bottomed out locally at around $18,000 when its outflows from exchanges reached nearly 68,000 BTC on June 17. The cryptocurrency’s price rallied toward $24,500 in the following weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break $20,000 despite a new weekly high on Oct. 18 as market watchers waited for action.

Bitcoin meanders as stocks climb

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD defying volatility once again on the day.

The pair stayed noticeably stable despite stronger moves for United States equities at the Wall Street open. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were up 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

“We are now witnessing another well overdue relief rally in stocks,” financial commentary resource the Kobeissi Letter told Twitter followers.

“After over a month of near straight-line down price action, a bounce was needed.”

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to hit a massive $2 million within six years, asset management guru Lawrence “Larry” Lepard believes.

In his latest appearance on the Quoth the Raven podcast Oct. 16, Lepard said that BTC/USD could “easily” deliver 100X returns from current prices.

Lepard: “I personally believe Bitcoin’s going to go up 100X”

With Bitcoin in a downtrend for almost a year, bullish BTC price predictions are few and far between.

Lepard, already known for his optimism on both Bitcoin and precious metals, has become one of the lone voices forecasting a seven-figure BTC price tag in the current environment.

In his podcast appearance, the Equity Management Associates founder revealed that he is still dollar-cost averaging into BTC — buying a fixed amount every week, regardless of the price.

Ether (ETH) price has been unable to close above $1,400 for the past 29 days and it has been trading in a relatively tight $150 range. At the moment, the $1,250 support and the $1,400 resistance seem difficult to break, but two months ago, Ether was trading at $2,000. The current price range for Ether simply reflects how volatile cryptocurrencies can be.

From one side, investors are calm as Ether trades 50% above the $880 intraday low on June 18. However, the price is still down 65% year-to-date despite the most exciting upgrade in the network's sev-year history.

More importantly, Ethereum's biggest rival, BNB Chain, suffered a cross-chain security exploit on Oct. 6. The $568 million exploit caused BNB Chain to temporarily suspend all transactions on the network, which holds $5.4 billion in smart contracts deposits.

Ether underperformed competing smart contracts like BNB, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) by 14% since September, even though its TVL in ETH terms increased by 9% during the period. This suggests that the Ethereum network's issues, such as the $3 average transaction fees, weighed on the ETH price.

Traders should look at Ether's derivatives markets data to understand how whales and market makers are positioned.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell to a new year-to-date low last week and closed the week with a loss of 1.55% and 3.11%, respectively.

The scenario changed drastically on Oct. 17 after the earnings,  season ramped up and a sharp policy reversal from U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt added detail to the government's plan to fix his predecessor's (Kwasi Kwarteng's) fiscal package, which had triggered a record fall in the value of the GBP and a near liquidation of pension plans in the United Kingdom.

At the time of writing, the Dow is up 1.78%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq present 2.57% and 3.26% respective gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to stay well above its year-to-date low showing short-term outperformance.

Some analysts expect that Bitcoin could be closer to a bottom. Twitter trader Alan said that the stochastic indicator on Bitcoin’s monthly chart has reached levels similar to those seen during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, indicating a likely macro bottom.

Similarly, LookIntoBitcoin creator Philip Swift said in an interview with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could be close to major cycle lows. Citing various metrics, Swift said that Bitcoin may face another two to three months of pain but should start its outperformance in 2023.

While Bitcoin (BTC) investors may not consider the United States midterm elections a significant event, an eerie fractal from 2018 may provide a clue to what could happen before the year ends.

Bitcoin to hit $12K–$14K after midterms?

Comparing Bitcoin’s price actions prior to the midterm elections of 2018 with those of 2022 shows a strikingly similar bear market trend.

For instance, BTC price trended lower in 2018 while holding a horizontal level near $6,000 as support, only to break below it after the midterm elections.

In 2022, the cryptocurrency has halfway mirrored this trend. Its price now awaits a close below the current horizontal support level of around $19,000. With the midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the said breakdown scenario could occur sooner or later, as illustrated below.

Independent market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy thinks Bitcoin’s price will fall into the $12,000-$14,000 range if a similar breakdown occurs. He further notes that the cryptocurrency could bottom out in November or December 2022, just like in 2018.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $20,000 as United States equities gained at the Oct. 17 Wall Street open.

Stocks climb as U.S. dollar heads lower

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $19,672 on Bitstamp, up 3.5% versus the weekend’s lows.

The pair rose in line with stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively within thirty minutes’ trading.

The action combined with weak U.S. economic data in the form of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which fell to -9.1 for October, heavily below the forecast -4.3 and September’s -1.5 reading.

“Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the October survey,” the New York Federal Reserve summarized in commentary on the data.

XRP (XRP) has made considerable gains over the past month as traders continue to shower confidence on Ripple’s legal win against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

For instance, the XRP price gained 25% thirty days after Ripple and the SEC filed for an immediate ruling on whether or not XRP sales violated U.S. securities laws. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are down 4% and 11% over the same period, respectively.

Now, a flurry of indicators, ranging from on-chain to technical, hints XRP can continue its uptrend going into 2023.

XRP price “bull pennant”

Bull pennants are bullish continuation patterns that form as the price consolidates in a triangle-like range after a strong upside move. In other words, they resolve after the price breaks out in the direction of its previous uptrend. 

On the daily chart, XRP has been trending inside a similar technical structure since late September, as shown below. While at it, the token has also attempted to break above the pennant twice, albeit to no success. It now eyes another breakout in the coming days.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week keeping everyone guessing as a tiny trading range stays in play.

A non-volatile weekend continues a familiar status quo for BTC/USD, which remains just above $19,000.

Despite calls for a rally and a run to lower macro lows next, the pair has yet to make a decision on a trajectory — or even signal that a breakout or breakdown is imminent.

After a brief spell of excitement seen on the back of last week’s United States economic data, Bitcoin is thus back at square one — literally, as price action is now exactly where it was at the same time last week.

As the market wonders what it might take to crack the range, Cointelegraph takes a look at potential catalysts in store this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed rigidly tied to $19,000 into the Oct. 16 weekly close as analysts warned that volatility was long overdue.

Analyst: BTC volatility a “matter of time"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured a lackluster weekend for BTC/USD as the pair barely moved in out-of-hours trading.

After United States economic data sparked a series of characteristic fakeout events over the week, Bitcoin returned to its original position, and at the time of writing showed no signs of leaving its established range.

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading platform Eight, it was a question of not if, but when unpredictability would return to crypto.

“Matter of time until massive volatility is going to kick back into the markets, after four months of consolidation,” he told Twitter followers on the day, adding:

Bitcoin BTC stayed rigidly tied to $19,000 into the Oct. 16 weekly close as analysts warned that volatility was long overdue.

Analyst: BTC volatility a "matter of time"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured a lackluster weekend for BTC/USD as the pair barely moved in out-of-hours trading.

After United States economic data sparked a series of characteristic fakeout events over the week, Bitcoin returned to its original position, and at the time of writing showed no signs of leaving its established range.

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading platform Eight, if was a question of “not ‘if,’ but ‘when’” unpredictability would return to crypto.

“Matter of time until massive volatility is going to kick back into the markets, after four months of consolidation,” he told Twitter followers on the day.

U.S. investors have been waiting for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval since May 2014 when the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust filed an amendment request at the Securities and Exchange (SEC). 

Over the years, the SEC has rejected every applicant and the latest denial was issued to WisdomTree’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF on Oct. 11. The SEC concluded that the offer did not have the ability “to obtain information necessary to detect, investigate, and deter fraud and market manipulation, as well as violations of exchange rules and applicable federal securities laws and rules.”

Bitcoin investment trust vehicles have existed since 2013, but they have been restricted to accredited investors. Launching a spot-based BTC ETF would open the market to retail investors and a broader array of mutual funds in the industry.

At the moment, U.S. regulators are reluctant to release what many believe would be a more fair and transparent product for Bitcoin. A conflicting reality is, while BTC spot ETFs continue to be rejected, the exact same product has long been available for bonds, global currencies, gold, Chinese equities, real estate, oil and silver.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC), a U$ 12.3 billion investment fund, is currently trading at a record-high 36.7% discount versus its Bitcoin holdings, but this might not be a buy the dip-type of discount. The gap started after the Toronto Stock Exchange launched the Purpose Bitcoin ETF in February 2021, which is a spot investment product.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing textbook macro bottom signs in a “business as usual” bear market, data suggests.

In fresh findings published on Oct. 13, popular Twitter trader Alan revealed that BTC price action is closely mimicking prior cycles.

Trader on Stoch data: "Don't be shaken out"

While some are concerned about the current state of Bitcoin and crypto markets, on-chain indicators have long suggested that the 2022 bear market is comfortingly similar to previous ones.

Eyeing the one-month stochastic chart for BTC/USD, Alan highlighted Bitcoin repeating a structure common to both the 2014 and 2018 bear markets.

Stochastic oscillators are classic tools for identifying price cycles and bullish and bearish interplay.

This week, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price took a tumble as a hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report showed high inflation remains a persistent challenge despite a wave of interest rate hikes from the United States Federal Reserve. Interestingly, the market’s negative reaction to a high CPI print seemed priced in by investors, and BTC’s and Ether’s (ETH) prices reclaimed all of their intraday losses to close the day in the black. 

A quick look at Bitcoin’s market structure shows that even with the post-CPI print drop, the price continues to trade in the same price range it has been in for the past 122 days. Adding to this dynamic, Cointelegraph market analyst Ray Salmond reported on a unique situation where Bitcoin’s futures open interest is at a record high, while its volatility is also near record lows.

These factors, along with other indicators, have historically preceded explosive price movements, but history will also show that predicting the direction of these moves is nearly impossible.

So, aside from multiple metrics hinting that a decisive price move is brewing, Bitcoin is still doing more of the same thing it’s done for the past 4.5 months. With that being the case, it is perhaps time to start looking elsewhere for emerging trends and possible opportunities.

Here are a few data points that I’ve continued to be intrigued by.

Bitcoin (BTC) cooled near $19,200 after the Oct. 14 Wall Street open as stocks struggled to preserve their “bear trap.”

Analyst: "Abandon all hope" for asset price rebound

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it came off one-week highs on the day to circle $19,300.

The pair had seen intense volatility on the back of United States economic data the day prior, this sparking hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations from both long and short positions.

Now, after turning the tables and adding almost $2,000 in 24 hours, Bitcoin was again losing momentum as U.S. equities turned red on the day.

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was down 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index traded a gruesome 5.4% lower.

Bitcoin (BTC) may see more pain in the near future, but the bulk of the bear market is already “likely” behind it.

That is one of many conclusions from Philip Swift, the popular on-chain analyst whose data resource, LookIntoBitcoin, tracks many of the best-known Bitcoin market indicators.

Swift, who together with analyst Filbfilb is also a co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, believes that despite current price pressure, there is not long to go until Bitcoin exits its latest macro downtrend.

In a fresh interview with Cointelegraph, Swift revealed insights into what the data is telling analysts — and what traders should pay attention to as a result.

How long will the average hodler need to wait until the tide turns and Bitcoin comes storming back from two-year lows?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), looks ready to undergo a massive rally due to a mix of technical and fundamental factors.

From a technical perspective, ETH’s price now eyes a 35% rebound by the end of October after holding testing a key support level. This level is a rising trendline that has capped Ether’s downside attempts since June 2022, as shown below.

In other words, traders have shown interest in buying Ethereum tokens near this level in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the accumulation sentiment has prompted the price to rise toward another significant level — a horizontal trendline resistance near $1,800, about 35% above the current price. 

Ether supply drops by 6K ETH

The bullish technical outlook for Ether takes further take cues from its depleting supply in recent days.

Ether supply has dropped by nearly 6,000 ETH, or around $7.9 million, since Oct. 8. That marks the Ethereum network’s first deflationary move — where more ETH is being destroyed than created — since its switch from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) via the Merge one month ago.