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Dogecoin (DOGE) has surged nearly 100% quarter-to-date (QTD) on hopes that Elon Musk would integrate the token onto the Twitter platform. However, DOGE's potential to continue its uptrend in the coming weeks is low, one popular market analyst argues.

Short Dogecoin hard?

Independent market analyst GCR said he is moderately short on DOGE based on its price's recent reaction to a Musk tweet. Notably, DOGE formed a local top at $0.158 on Nov. 1. The same day, Musk shared a picture of his pet Shiba Inu wearing a t-shirt with the Twitter logo.

GCR argues that the Musk-effect is wearing off when it comes to Dogecoin's potential integration into Twitter, meaning that most of the gains are already priced in. Therefore, if the actual integration happens, it will likely become a sell-the-news event. 

Overbought correction begins

Meanwhile, Dogecoin continued its correction move on Nov. 4, three days after topping out at $0.158.

DOGE's price dropped to as low as $0.115 on Nov. 4, in part due to rumors of Twitter pausing its crypto wallet development project. That brought the token's net percentage correction from the Nov. 1 local top to nearly 27%.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $21,000 at the Nov. 4 Wall Street open as bulls tackled a formidable sell wall.

Sellers move aside for new multi-week highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD breaking through resistance to hit local highs of $21,262 on Bitstamp.

The pair had struggled to return to higher levels during the week, but the latest order book data from Binance showed asks now shifting up to north of $21,500.

The day’s high marked Bitcoin’s best performance since Sept. 13, beating previous local peaks.

Material Indicators, which provided the order book charts, noted that above-expected United States unemployment figures may be aiding risk assets by increasing the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate pivot.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $21,000 on Nov. 4 as bulls attempted to reclaim lost ground.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it rose overnight to put in new daily highs of $20,683 on Bitstamp.

$21,000 sell wall proves ugly

While so far a lower high on hourly timeframes compared to the Nov. 1 and 2 spikes, the move served to make up for losses, which came on the back of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike decision.

Potential for a push beyond $21,000 was limited, however, thanks to exchange sellers stacking asks at that level.

“If you want to sell, place your orders slightly lower than $21k,” Onchain Edge, a contributor at analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of a tweet alongside data from the Binance order book.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been lingering above $20,000 for the past nine days, but worsening conditions from traditional markets are causing traders to doubt if the support will hold.

On Nov. 3, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 3%, its largest single hike since 1989. The risks of a prolonged recession also increased as the Monetary Policy Committee struggled to contain inflationary pressure.

The U.K. monetary authority noted that its most recent growth and inflation projections present a “very challenging” outlook for the economy. The statement from the committee added that “high energy prices and tighter financial conditions weigh on spending,” thus negatively pressuring the employment data.

The U.S. Federal Reserve also hiked interest rates on Nov. 2, the fourth consecutive raise, which brings rates to the highest levels since January 2008. The confirmation of a conservative approach from central banks can partially explain why Bitcoin failed to break the $21,000 resistance on Oct. 29 and has since declined by 4.5%.

Let’s take a look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered lower on Nov. 3 as the aftermath of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike subsided.

Trading range forms with $20,000 at center

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering just above $20,000 on the day.

The pair had seen flash volatility as the Fed hiked 0.75%, with fakeout moves up and down triggering liquidations both long and short.

Cross-crypto liquidations for the past 24 hours at the time of writing totaled $165 million, data from Coinglass confirms.

Bitcoin ultimately finished slightly lower than its pre-Fed level, an area that continued to hold on the day as analysts awaited fresh cues.

After an impressive 23.7% rally between Oct. 25 and Oct. 31, Binance Chain BNB, has faced a strong rejection from the $330 resistance. Is it possible that the two-day 6% sell-off from the $337.80 peak could indicate that further trouble is ahead?

Let’s take a look at what the data shows.

Analysts pinned the recent rally to the Oct. 28 news that Binance had invested $500 million in Twitter. However, the network's deposits and decentralized applications metrics have not accompanied the improvement in sentiment.

The strong upward movement was largely based on reports that Binance was preparing to assist Twitter in eradicating bots. The speculation emerged after billionaire Elon Musk raised the $44 billion required to complete his purchase of the social media platform.

In absolute terms, BNB's year-to-date performance reflects a 40% decline, but it ranks ahead of competitors as Ether (ETH) is down by 59%, Solana (SOL) 82% and Polygon (MATIC) registers a 79% correction.

Polygon (MATIC) emerged as the best-performing asset among the top-ranking cryptocurrencies on Nov. 3 as the market’s attention turned to the latest Instagram and JPMorgan announcements.

Polygon in high-profile partnerships

Notably, Meta, the parent company of Instagram, named Polygon as its initial partner for its upcoming nonfungible token (NFT) tools that allow users to mint, showcase and sell their digital collectibles on and off the social media platform.

Meanwhile, banking giant JPMorgan used Polygon to conduct its first live trade (worth about $71,000) on a public blockchain, marking a concrete step toward integrating cryptocurrencies into traditional financial frameworks. 

MATIC, a utility and staking token within the Polygon blockchain ecosystem, rose over 13% to $0.985 after the announcements, accompanied by an uptick in daily trading volume.

MATIC’s upside move came as a part of a broader recovery rally across the crypto sector that started in mid-June. MATIC’s price has rebounded by more than 200%, a trend that will likely sustain in the coming months.

The price of Litecoin (LTC) could skyrocket by up to 200% by July 2023, coinciding with its halving event, reducing miner block rewards by 50%.

Litecoin has bottomed out?

Litecoin has undergone two halvings since its launch in October 2011. The first one occurred in August 2015, which reduced its block reward from 50 LTC to 25 LTC. The second happened in August 2019, which slashed the 25 LTC reward to 12.5 LTC.

Interestingly, each Litecoin halving event occurred after a volatile LTC price cycle, namely an enormous price pump, followed by a similarly massive correction, a price bottom, and recovery to a local top.

After the Litecoin halvings, LTC’s price corrected from its local top, established another bottom and followed it with another massive price rally to a new record high, as shown below,

Litecoin's third halving is scheduled to occur sometime in July 2023. Meanwhile, market analysts are already pointing out that LTC's price is undergoing the same pre-halving trajectory as before the 2011 and 2019 events, now in the bottoming-out stage.

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers may not have capitulated enough, but current trends are “typical” of the end of bear markets.

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, seller behavior suggests that a macro price bottom is forming.

Analyst: Seller exhaustion is “near” bear market lows

In the latest hint that Bitcoin’s latest bear market is nearing its end, Glassnode has revealed that the network is currently weathering a “perfect storm” of low volatility and high on-chain losses.

The Seller Exhaustion Constant, calculated from one-month rolling volatility and on-chain transaction profitability, is thus at long-term lows of its own.

As a Twitter post explains, such lows are rare, having only appeared seven times before. Six of those times, upside volatility resulted, implying that Bitcoin could soon put an end to its bearish trend.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) price can rise by nearly 150% versus its top meme-coin rival, Dogecoin (DOGE), in the coming months, based on a technical fractal.

SHIB hits record low against DOGE

The bullish setup appears as the SHIB/DOGE pair rebounded slightly after dropping to 0.0000841 — its lowest level ever — on Nov. 1. The price level coincided with a descending trendline that has served as strong support for the pair since November 2021.

For instance, Shiba Inu’s previous drop to the said trendline occurred in May 2022, which preceded a 100% recovery rally in the next three months. Similarly, in January 2022, the SHIB/DOGE pair rebounded by more than 50% in less than a month.

Interestingly, all the SHIB/DOGE’s rebound moves reached the 0.0002186-0.0002536 range as their primary upside targets. This area coincides with the pair’s 0.786-1 Fib line range, derived from the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the 0.0002536 swing high to the 0.0000899 swing low, as shown in the chart below.

Therefore, SHIB could once again see a sharp bullish reversal versus DOGE if history repeats, with the upside target in the 0.0002186-0.0002536 range. In other words, at least a 150% price rally by Q1 2023.

The past few months have been painful for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls, but they are not alone. The United States Federal Reserve’s tightening economic policy has led investors to seek protection in cash positions and inflation-protected bonds. 

Surging inflation and recession signals have caused the S&P 500 stock market index to retreat 19% year-to-date. Even gold — previously considered a safe asset — is suffering the consequences, trading down 20% from its all-time high.

The increasing costs of a home mortgage added fear that a housing crisis might be underway. Since the Fed started raising interest rates in March, borrowing costs have gone up and up, and mortgage rates have reached multi-decade highs.

Regardless of the prevailing bearish sentiment, Bitcoin bulls could still profit by $270 million on Friday's options expiry.

$640 million in options expire on Nov. 4

According to the Nov. 4 options expiry open interest, Bitcoin bears concentrated their bets between $16,000 and $20,000. These levels might seem gloomy right now, but Bitcoin was trading below $19,500 two weeks ago.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw instant volatility on Nov. 2 as the United States Federal Reserve enacted a fourth consecutive 0.75% interest rate hike.

Fed hints more hikes to com

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD initially dropping to $20,200 before momentarily rebounding to $20,800.

The Fed confirmed the 0.75% hike, which marks its most intensive hiking schedule in forty years, in a statement.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent,” it stated.

“The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market have been in a bear market for almost a year. The top cryptocurrency has seen its market valuation plummet by more than $900 billion in the said period, with macro fundamentals suggesting more pain ahead.

Another bear cycle produces more BTC hodlers

But the duration of Bitcoin’s bear market has coincided with a substantial rise in the percentage of BTC’s total supply held by investors for at least six months to one year.

Notably, the percentage of coins held for at least a year has risen from nearly 54% on Oct. 28, 2021, to a record high of 66% on Oct. 28, 2022, data shows.

This evidence suggests that long-term investors are increasingly looking at Bitcoin as a store of value, asserts Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset fund Capriole Investments.

“Despite the worst year in stocks and bonds in centuries, Bitcoiners have never held on to more Bitcoin,” the analyst noted while highlighting how the floor and ceiling in Bitcoin held for the long term have been increasing after each cycle.

A simple but elegant Bitcoin (BTC) price metric has returned to lows from before the 2017 bull market.

As noted by its creator, Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, the Bitcoin Yardstick is now at its second lowest level in history.

Yardstick prints second-lowest reading ever

As on-chain metrics converge to put in a classic macro bottom for BTC/USD, a new candidate is suggesting that Bitcoin is even more oversold than the average hodler believes.

The Bitcoin Yardstick measures the ratio of Bitcoin market cap to hash rate — two fundamental metrics which, when compared to one another, offer key price insights.

As Edwards explains, the lower the value, the “cheaper” Bitcoin is — more hash rate is being applied to secure low-priced coins.

As November begins, analysts are busy dissecting the major market movements that occurred in October. While Bitcoin (BTC) stayed relatively unchanged with only 5.89% growth in October, Arcane Research senior analyst, Vetle Lunde mapped out the direction the market might take in the next few months.

“Uptober,” a reference to Bitcoin's bullish historical performance in the month of October, was a common theme across many threads on Crypto Twitter and, according to Lunde, this performance appears to have happened once again. Data shows BTC and exchange tokens outperformed the large caps index up until Oct. 26.

Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover helped push the large caps index above Bitcoin with a staggering 20% monthly gain. Dogecoin (DOGE) helped cement the large-cap strength by producing a 144% gain in the last seven days.

October’s Bitcoin spot market was driven by increased volume and lower volatility, while benefiting from a short squeeze that briefly invigorated the market. According to Lunde, the last week of October saw the largest short liquidation volume in crypto since July 26, 2021.

While this activity helped push Bitcoin up by 6%, Ether (ETH) and BNB (BNB) saw more substantial gains at 18% and 19% respectively.

Novice traders are usually drawn to futures and options markets due to the promise of high returns. These traders watch influencers post incredible gains, and at the same time, the multiple advertisements from derivatives exchanges that offer 100x leverage are at times irresistible for most. 

Although traders can effectively increase gains with recurring derivatives contracts, a few mistakes can quickly turn the dream of outsized gains into nightmares and an empty account. Even experienced investors in traditional markets fall victim to issues particular t cryptocurrency markets.

Cryptocurrency derivatives function similarly to traditional markets because buyers and sellers enter into contracts dependent on an underlying asset. The contract cannot be transferred across different exchanges, nor can it be withdrawn.

Most exchanges offer options contracts priced in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), so the gains or losses will vary according to the asset’s price fluctuations. Options contracts also offer the right to acquire and sell at a later date for a predetermined price. This gives traders the ability to build leverage and hedging strategies.

Let’s investigate three common errors to avoid when trading futures and options.

While Bitcoin (BTC) price support may be psychological for some traders, the statistics behind BTC remaining over $20,000 for a week are strong indicators of price support or in other words, a new bear market floor. Multiple Bitcoin data points might be able to establish a $20,000 support level. 

Last week Bitcoin reached a high of $20,961. However, it never sustained its upward momentum as the rally fizzled out, failing to break $21,000 support. As a result of the rally as well as the rejection, Glassnode, in the most recent report, analyzes if Bitcoin is hammering out a bear market floor.

Realized price distribution

Bitcoin’s realized price charts the average cost buyers paid for their BTC holdings. If the price of Bitcoin goes below a user’s realized price, they are technically experiencing an unrealized loss. For visual effect, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows the percentage of supply distributed across the acquisition price.

The 2019 bear market shows that 30% of BTC’s total supply was concentrated within the realized price range. In April 2019, the price broke out above the realized price, signaling the start of a new bull market.

Looking at the current market and applying the same methodology, Bitcoin’s realized price is concentrating 20% of supply between $17,000 and $22,000. While this suggests that more redistribution may need to occur, the consolidation is significant and highlights a resilient holder base.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed motionless at the Nov. 1 Wall Street open as traders rooted for clues over a possible direction.

Hopes of a breakout remain despite BTC sell wall

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a narrow range in place for BTC/USD overnight, the day seeing local highs of $20,681 on Bitstamp.

Markets were keenly awaiting news from the United States Federal Reserve on interest rates, which is scheduled for 2:00 pm Eastern Time on Nov. 2.

Until then, it i a case of “wait and see,” while on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators noted sell-orders already increasing.

“The binance order book is starting to look like a game of Tetris,” it summarized.

Cryptocurrencies broke the $1 trillion market capitalization resistance on Oct. 26, which had been holding strong for the previous 41 days. Despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) modest 5.5% weekly gains, the aggregate value of 20,000 listed tokens increased by 8.5% between Oct. 24 and 31.

The cryptocurrency market was positively impacted by a 6.3% weekly rally in the Russell 2000 mid-capitalization stock market index. Some encouraging news accompanied the positive tailwinds from traditional markets.

For instance, 55,000 BTC was withdrawn from Binance on Oct. 26, a record high. Typically, analysts consider the reduced number of coins deposited on exchanges a bullish indicator, as the immediate selling pressure eases.

Moreover, exchange and wallet provider Blockchain.com partnered with payment processing giant Visa to launch a crypto card. The cryptocurrency company revealed on Oct. 26 that there would be no sign-up or annual fees, no transaction fees and users would earn 1% of all purchases back in digital assets.

Instead of focusing on Bitcoin, cryptocurrency traders have spread their bets across altcoins. Consequently, comparing the winners and losers among the top 80 coins provides skewed results, as seven rallied 20% or more over the past week.