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So what if Bitcoin price keeps falling! Here is why it’s time to start paying attention

For bulls, Bitcoin’s (BTC) daily price action leaves a lot to be desired, and at the moment, there are few signs of an imminent turnaround. 

Following the trend of the past six or more months, the current factors continue to place pressure on BTC price:

Persistent concerns of potential stringent crypto regulation.United States Federal Reserve policy, interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening.Geopolitical concerns related to Russia, Ukraine and the weaponization of high-demand natural resources imported by the European Union.Strong risk-off sentiment due to the possibility of a U.S. and global recession.

When combined, these challenges have made high volatility assets less than interesting to institutional investors, and the euphoria seen during the 2021 bull market has largely dissipated.

So, day-to-day price action is not encouraging, but looking at longer duration metrics that gauge Bitcoin’s price, investor sentiment and perceptions of valuation do present some interesting data points.

The market still flirts with oversold conditions

On the daily and weekly timeframe, BTC’s price is pressing against a long-term descending trendline. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands, a simple momentum indicator that reflects two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average, are beginning to constrict.

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What is regenerative finance (ReFi) and how can it impact NFTs and Web3?

On Sept. 30, NFT Steez, a bi-weekly Twitter Spaces hosted by Alyssa Expósito and Ray Salmond, met with Mashiat Mutmainnah to discuss how regenerative finance (ReFi) can provide more accessibility and inclusivity to blockchain technology. 

As a "mission-driven movement," Mutmainnah explains that ReFi enables users to redefine their relationship with the current financial system and their relationship with finance and wealth.

Currently, in many countries, millions of people lack basic, equitable access to the financial services that would allow them to meet their daily needs.

What if there were newer models that could sustainably alleviate this? According to Mutmainnah, ReFi can redefine what money means and how it's used.

What is the impact of ReFi? 

Mutmainnah emphasized that ReFi brings awareness to how the present financial systems operate in an "extractive" and "exploitative" manner. She also drew a comparison to fast fashion by explaining that what enables a user to purchase a shirt for $5 comes at the expense of a child laborer. 

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NEXO risks 50% drop due to regulatory pressure and investor concerns

Crypto lending firm Nexo is at risk of losing half of the valuation of its native token by the end of 2022 as doubts about its potential insolvency grow in the market.

Is Nexo too centralized?

For the unversed: Eight U.S. states filed a cease-and-desist order against Nexo on Sep. 26, alleging that the firm offers unregistered securities to investors without alerting them about the risks of the financial products.

In particular, regulators in Kentucky accused Nexo of being insolvent, noting that without its namesake native token, NEXO, the firm’s “liabilities would exceed its assets.” As of July 31, Nexo had 959,089,286 NEXO in its reserves — 95.9% of all tokens in existence.

“This is a big, big, big problem because a very basic market analysis demonstrates that Nexo would be unable to monetize a significant chunk of these tokens,” noted Mike Burgersburg, an independent market analyst and author of the Dirty Bubble Media Substack, adding:

“Given that fact, the true value of the $NEXO tokens on Nexo’s balance sheet is likely close to $0.”


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Bitcoin surges above $20K after 6% BTC rally gains steam ahead of the monthly close

Bitcoin (BTC) swiftly climbed above $20,000 after the Sept. 30 Wall Street open as end-of-month volatility began. 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin volatility back for monthly close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 3% in a single hourly candle to hit local highs of $20,171 on Bitstamp.

The move followed predictions from traders, who were looking for slightly higher levels to precede a fresh downside move.

"Moving my stop to my entry now at 19.3k but letting it ride first to 21.7k where I think there's some major resistance," popular trader Pentoshi wrote in part of a fresh Twitter update about his trading plans.

"Looks like strength to me," trading account IncomeSharks continued.

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Bitcoin sees first difficulty drop in 2 months as miners sell 8K BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) miners remain under stress at current price levels as data shows large outflows from miner wallets returning.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, monthly miner sales totaled up to around 8,000 BTC in September.

Bitcoin miners see heavy sales

In contrast to the June lows, when BTC/USD hit its current multi-year floor of $17,600, miners are currently selling considerable amounts of BTC.

According to Glassnode, which tracks the 30-day change in miner balances, at the start of the month, miners were down a maximum 8,650 BTC over the month prior.

Bitcoin miner net position change chart. Source: Glassnode

While this subsequently reduced, taking into account changes in the BTC price, miners are still selling more than they earn on a rolling monthly basis.

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Bitcoin price due 'big dump' after passing $20K, warns trader

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to intraday resistance on Sep. 30 as analysis predicted that $20,000 could break before a new comedown.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Crunch time for $20,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it circled $19,600 at the time of writing.

The pair had seen a bout of more volatile behavior the day prior, briefly losing $19,000 before bid support took the market higher.

The day looked to be an important one for bulls, with the monthly close combining with European Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Geopolitical events involving Russia’s official annexation of Ukrainian territory and associated implications were also on traders’ radar. Russian president Vladimir Putin was expected to speak at a ceremony during which he would formally ratify four Ukrainian regions joining Russia.

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Pro traders don’t expect Bitcoin to break and hold $20,000 anytime soon

One hundred and eleven days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) posted a close above $25,000 and this led some investors to feel less sure that the asset had found a confirmed bottom. At the moment, global financial markets remain uneasy due to the increased tension in Ukraine after this week’s Nord Stream gas pipeline incident. 

The Bank of England's emergency intervention in government bond markets on Sept. 28 also shed some light on how extremely fragile fund managers and financial institutions are right now. The movement marked a stark shift from the previous intention to tighten economies as inflationary pressures mounted.

Currently, the S&P 500 is on pace for a consecutive third negative quarter, a first since 2009. Additionally, Bank of America analysts downgraded Apple to neutral, due to the tech giant’s decision to scale back iPhone production due to "weaker consumer demand." Lastly, according to Fortune, the real estate market has shown its first signs of reversion after housing prices decreased in 77% of United States metropolitan areas.

Let's have a look at Bitcoin derivatives data to understand if the worsening global economy is having any impact on crypto investors.

Pro traders were not excited by the rally to $20,000

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets, but they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

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US Treasury yields are soaring, but what does it mean for markets and crypto?

Across all tradeable markets and currencies, U.S. Treasurys — government bonds — have significant influence. In finance, any risk measurement is relative, meaning, if one insures a house, the maximum liability is set in some form of money. 

Similarly, if a loan is taken from a bank, the creditor has to calculate the odds of the money not being returned and the risk of the amount being devalued by inflation.

In a worst-case scenario, let’s imagine what would happen to the costs associated with issuing debt if the U.S. government temporarily suspended payments to specific regions or countries. Currently, there is over $7.6 trillion worth of bonds held by foreign entities, and multiple banks and governments depend on this cash flow.

The potential cascading effect from countries and financial institutions would immediately impact their ability to settle imports and exports, leading to further carnage in the lending markets because every participant would rush to reduce risk exposure.

There is over $24 trillion in U.S. Treasurys held by the general public, so participants generally assume that the lowest risk in existence is a government-backed debt title.

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Bitcoin price slips under $19K as official data confirms US recession

Bitcoin (BTC) wobbled in its narrow trading range at the Sep. 29 Wall Street open as official data put the United States economy in recession. 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

U.S. meets technical definition of recession

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD still hovering just above $19,000 at the time of writing.

The pair weathered gloomy figures for the U.S., with the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimated at -0.6%. This, despite protests of the White House to the contrary, meant that the U.S. met the standard criteria for recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

"Everyone talks about recessions as if they should never happen," financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted.

"Any economy that is healthy in the long run will have many recessions. If you never have a recession, you just have a bubble. In this case, we just have a bubble and a recession. Fake markets don’t work."

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Bitcoin price skirts $19.3K amid fear over ‘mother of all rug pulls’

Bitcoin (BTC) traders lay in wait for fresh volatility on Sept. 29 as BTC/USD cooled near $19,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Volatility absent a day before the monthly close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView charted a calm overnight phase for the largest cryptocurrency, which hit intraday highs above $19,600 the day prior.

Those 6% gains were a welcome relief after heavy losses earlier in the week, but it no clear direction, market participants were still uncertain over how Bitcoin would handle the September monthly close.

“Can certainly build a case for local support holding in this range, at least until the monthly and quarterly close on Friday, unless, of course, we get the mother of all rug pulls,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators summarized.

Material Indicators referenced order book data which suggested that $18,000 could provide range support in the event of fresh market weakness.

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Bitcoin price charges higher, but whales line up to sell BTC at $20K

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a welcome comeback after the Sept. 28 Wall Street open as bulls faced off with whale-sized sellers.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Whales lie in wait at $20,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining over $1,000 on the day to see highs of $19,656 on Bitstamp.

The move characteristically copied an uptick for United States equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

Now, analysis warned that the area of around $20,000 was still flush with large-volume traders eager to continue profit-taking.

The BTC/USD chart on major exchange Binance “shows brown Mega Whales dumping into BTC support to minimize slippage,” analytics resource Material Indicators commented.

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Bitcoin holds $19K, but volatility expected as Friday's $2.2B BTC options expiry approaches

This week, the $20,000 resistance is proving to be stronger than expected and even after Bitcoin (BTC) price rejected this level on Sept. 27, BTC bulls still have reasons not to give up. 

According to the four-month-long descending triangle, as long as the $18,500 support holds, Bitcoin price has until late October to determine whether the downtrend will continue.

Bitcoin/USD 1-day price index. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin bulls might have been disappointed by the lackluster price performance as BTC has failed multiple times to break above $20,000, but macroeconomic events might trigger a rally sooner than expected.

Some analysts point to the United Kingdom's unexpected intervention in the bond market as the breaking point of the government’s debt credibility. On Sept. 28, the Bank of England announced that it would begin the temporary purchase of long-dated bonds to calm investors after a sharp yield increase, the highest since 1957.

To justify the intervention, the Bank of England stated, "were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to U.K. financial stability." Taking this measure is diametrically the opposite of the promise to sell $85 billion in bond holdings within 12 months. In short, the government's credibility is being questioned and as a result, investors are demanding much higher returns to hold U.K. debt.

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Bitcoin 'great detox' could trigger a BTC price drop to $12K — Research

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a “dire condition” when it comes to adoption — but a silver lining is already visible, new research says.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, the Week On-Chain, crypto analytics firm Glassnode said that Bitcoin was going through a “great detox.”

Bitcoin adoption returns to March 2020

Current BTC price action is pressuring everyone from long-term holders (LTHs) to miners, and relief is hard to come by.

Macro turmoil and resistance at $20,000 is keeping BTC/USD at levels visited only once since 2020.

With this week’s push above $20,000 accompanied by major profit-taking, warnings remain that more pain is due for the market first before a recovery takes place.

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BTC price stays under $19K amid hopes Q4 will end Bitcoin bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new weekly lows into Sept. 28 as risk asset drawdown continued overnight.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader: “First new lows” before Q4 recovery

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $18,461 on Bitstamp, down almost $2,000 versus the previous day’s high.

The change of direction came in lockstep with stocks, which turned red after initially heading marginally higher at the Wall Street open.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ultimately finished the day down 0.25% and up 0.25%, respectively.

Crypto, however, failed to recoup its losses, and while hopes were for Q4 to bring about a more solid recovery, traders were betting on the pain continuing first.

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Bitcoin price fails to hold $20K again, but there is a silver lining

Markets briefly flashed green on Sept. 27 as equities markets bounced back from Sept. 26’s pullback, bringing the Bitcoin (BTC) price back to the long-term descending trendline resistance, which currently resides at $20,100. 

Unfortunately for bulls, the positive momentum for stocks and cryptocurrencies rapidly eroded and Bitcoin price gave up a majority of the intraday gains as it slipped back below $19,000.

As has been the case since March 25, BTC price has been unable to kick above the resistance for more than a few hours and the Sept. 27 breakdown at the trendline continues the trend of successive bear flags that see a continuation to the downside.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

According to Arcane Research, Bitcoin’s tight rally above $20,000 is relatively insignificant, given that futures premiums are still low and it “contributes little to improving the market risk appetite.”

BTC perpetual contract funding rate versus Bitcoin price. Source: Arcane Research

Additional data from Arcane Research shows funding rates flipping neutral for the first time since Sept. 13, but generally, traders are reluctant to add longs, given the concerns over macro challenges and the continuous threat of unfriendly crypto regulation.

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Bitcoin price loses $20K as trader warns US dollar 'not quite topped out'

Bitcoin (BTC) crossed under $20,000 after the Sept. 27 Wall Street open as United States equities inched higher.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

U.S. dollar has room to run — trader

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed the $20,000 mark barely remaining as tentative support on the day.

BTC/USD had managed local highs of $20,344 on Bitstamp overnight, while retracing U.S. dollar strength gave modest relief to risk assets across the board.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index had been up 0.4% and 0.65%, respectively, after two hours’ trading, but subsequently reversed.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was down 0.15% on the day, back below the 114 mark but still near its highest since mid-2002.

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Bitcoin, British Pound trading volume soars 1150% as UK's currency risks dollar parity

Bitcoin (BTC) will see increased interest from the United Kingdom “very quickly” as fiat currency volatility makes BTC look like a stablecoin.

That was the conclusion from Gabor Gurbacs, strategy adviser at investment giant VanEck, one of many flagging Bitcoin’s appeal over the pound this week.

UK becomes fertile ground for Bitcoin "orange pill"

As the U.S. dollar runs rampant, its strength has come at the expense of trading partner currencies, notably the euro, pound and Japanese yen.

The pound’s disintegration gathered pace this week, however, as GBP/USD hit its lowest on record at nearly $1.03.

With the United Kingdom’s central bank, the Bank of England, avoiding interventions so far, nerves are showing as purchasing power takes a double hit from currency weakness and inflation at forty-year highs.

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Ethereum fork token ETHPoW climbs 150% after smart contract hack — A fakeout rally?

ETHW has logged a significant price rebound despite its blockchain network, ETHPoW, suffering a smart contract hack in the first week after its launch.

Bull trap risks surround ETHW market

ETHW rebounded more than 150% eight days after the attack and traded for around $10.30 on Sept. 27.

Fundamentally, this suggests that traders ignored the hack and trusted ETHPoW's long-term viability as a blockchain project.

But from a technical perspective, the ETHW price rally has accompanied weaker trading volumes. In other words, fewer traders have been involved in the pumping of the ETHPoW token's price in the past eight days, as the Bitfinex exchange data shows in the chart below.

ETHW/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The growing divergence between ETHW's rising prices and falling trading volumes suggests that traders' interest in the ETHPoW token has been dwindling. In other words, ETHW's price risks a sharp correction in the coming days.

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More ancient Bitcoin leaves its wallet after 10-year hibernation

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing some of its oldest coins come back to life after a decade lying dormant.

The latest on-chain data reveals that two-year BTC price lows have reawakened the most ancient part of the supply.

"Very old" Bitcoin come back to life

As BTC/USD returns to levels not seen since Q4 2020, questions are arising over how long-term holders will respond.

The on-chain picture is mixed — the dormant supply is aging, but certain old hands are showing signs of wanting to sell at current prices.

The latest piece of the puzzle comes in the form of BTC returning to circulation after remaining in the same wallet for at least ten years.

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Bitcoin gains 5% to reclaim $20K, eyes first 'green' September since 2016

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered long-anticipated volatility on Sep. 27 as a squeeze higher resulted in a push beyond $20,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price 9-day highs greet traders

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it added over 7% after the Sep. 26 close.

Local highs of $20,344 appeared on Bitstamp before the pair began consolidating at around $20,200.

The move naturally did not go unnoticed by in trading circles, but opinions differed over the outcome, amid warnings that the whole episode may end up trapping overoptimistic traders taking late long positions.

“No [rejection] yet, but soon. Expecting higher for now,” popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto summarized, sticking by a theory which demanded new lower lows than the sub-$19,000 levels seen over the past week.

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