Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $21,000 on July 26 after it emerged that major the United States cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase was under investigation.

$21,000 now “super critical” for BTC bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a swift reversion to lower levels for BTC/USD as reports emerged of fresh legal problems for Coinbase over securities trading.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Bloomberg originally reported, was looking into whether the exchange had allowed users to trade unregistered securities.

Part of a wider battle between the U.S. crypto industry and regulators over compliance, the move appeared to frighten the market, coming amid parallel allegations that a former executive conducted insider trading.

With that, Bitcoin was back to defending $21,000 as support on the day, with commentator Mark Cullen stressing that the level must hold for bulls to stay in control.

While public acceptance remains key to crypto’s existence, the road to mainstream crypto adoption requires governments to set up a supporting infrastructure that complements the requirements of the technology and the people. 

Factors such as crypto ATM installations, pro-crypto regulations, startup culture and a fair tax regime signal a country’s readiness to adopt cryptocurrencies. Considering these factors, a Forex Suggest study revealed Hong Kong’s position as the best-prepared country for widespread cryptocurrency adoption, with a crypto-readiness score of 8.6. Despite having a bigger crypto infrastructure than the island nation, the United States and Switzerland made it to the top three with lower crypto-readiness scores of 7.7 and 7.5, respectively, as shown below.

The biggest factors considered in the study to calculate a country’s readiness were the number of crypto ATM installations proportional to the population and geographical size of the jurisdiction and the number of blockchain startups per 100,00 people. As a result, Hong Kong’s smaller land mass helped the country top the list. 

CoinATMRadar data shows that the U.S. houses 88% of the global crypto ATM installations. On the contrary, Hong Kong installed a network of 146 crypto ATMs, representing just 0.4% of crypto ATMs worldwide. Owing to the smaller area, Hong Kong residents are never more than 4.3 miles (7 kilometers) away from a crypto ATM.

On the other hand, Switzerland has a crypto ATM every 161.5 miles (260 km), while the U.S. has installed crypto ATMs every 168.3 miles (271 km). 

Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals. 

BTC's price has rallied roughly 25% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2021 high of $69,000.

The recovery seems modest, however, and carries bearish continuation risks due to prevailing macroeconomic headwinds (rate hike, inflation, etc.) and the collapse of many high-profile crypto firms such as Three Arrows Capital, Terra and others.

But some widely-tracked indicators paint a different scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin's downside prospects from current price levels are minimal. 

That big "oversold" bounce

The first sign of Bitcoin's macro bottom comes from its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560.

The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period.

Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrencies and actions from the United States Federal Reserve could have the largest impact on price action.

Furthermore, the sit and wait mentality could be a reflection of important macroeconomic events scheduled for the week ahead. Broadly speaking, worse than expected data tends to increase investors' expectations of expansionary measures, which are beneficial for riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 26 and 27, and investors expect the United States central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moreover, the second quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity — will be released on July 27.

The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560.

The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period.

Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrencies and actions from the United States Federal Reserve could have the largest impact on price action.

Furthermore, the sit and wait mentality could be a reflection of important macroeconomic events scheduled for the week ahead. Broadly speaking, worse than expected data tends to increase investors' expectations of expansionary measures, which are beneficial for riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 26 and 27, and investors expect the United States central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moreover, the second quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity — will be released on July 27.