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Ethereum futures backwardation hints at 30% 'airdrop rally' ahead of the Merge

Backwardation reflects a market condition wherein spot prices trade higher than future prices.

Ethereum futures backwardation hints at 30% 'airdrop rally' ahead of the Merge

Ether (ETH) bulls like a positive spread between its spot and ETH futures prices because the so-called contango reflects optimism about a higher rate in the future. But as of Aug. 1, the Ethereum futures curve slid in the opposite direction.

Ethereum quarterly futures in backwardation

On the daily chart, Ethereum futures quarterly contracts, scheduled to expire in December 2022, have slipped into backwardation, a condition opposite to contango, wherein the futures price becomes lower than the spot price.

The spread between Ethereum's spot and futures price grew to -$8 on Aug. 1. 

ETH230-ETHUSD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

One one hand, the current ETH spot price being higher than its year-end outlook appears like a bearish sign. However, the conditions surrounding the current negative spread between the Ether spot and futures price suggests traders may actually be bullish on ETH.

For instance, Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 15% since its futures entered backwardation in late June for the first time in a year. 

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Cleaning up crypto: How much enforcement is too much?

Many blockchain companies now believe that regulation is inevitable, but there’s a growing debate over where to draw the line between protecting users and strangling the lifeblood out of the industry — or forcing it outside the United States. 

“Whether we like it or not, regulation is coming,” Sheila Warren of the Crypto Council for Innovation tells me during an interview in the lead up to the recent Collision conference in Toronto, Canada.

The CEO of the industry lobby group for blockchain technology explains that rather than trying to stop the inevitable, many companies are now focused on lobbying for rules that work for them instead.

Why the change? With every week seeming to bring new stories of loopholes, hacks and algo stablecoin failures — from the popular Netflix QuadrigaCX documentary to the dizzying world of crypto transaction mixers and the steps law enforcement used to track two Americans accused of selling fraudulent NFTs — increased regulation is starting to look like a better idea. And not just for businesses but also for legislators worried about being reelected. People seem to love hearing about crypto scams and lost money… as long as it’s not their own.

 

Collision

Cleaning up crypto: How much enforcement is too much?

Many blockchain companies now believe that regulation is inevitable, but there’s a growing debate over where to draw the line between protecting users and strangling the lifeblood out of the industry — or forcing it outside the United States. 

“Whether we like it or not, regulation is coming,” Sheila Warren of the Crypto Council for Innovation tells me during an interview in the lead up to the recent Collision conference in Toronto, Canada.

The CEO of the industry lobby group for blockchain technology explains that rather than trying to stop the inevitable, many companies are now focused on lobbying for rules that work for them instead.

Why the change? With every week seeming to bring new stories of loopholes, hacks and algo stablecoin failures — from the popular Netflix QuadrigaCX documentary to the dizzying world of crypto transaction mixers and the steps law enforcement used to track two Americans accused of selling fraudulent NFTs — increased regulation is starting to look like a better idea. And not just for businesses but also for legislators worried about being reelected. People seem to love hearing about crypto scams and lost money… as long as it’s not their own.

 

Collision

Cleaning up crypto: How much enforcement is too much?

Many blockchain companies now believe that regulation is inevitable, but there’s a growing debate over where to draw the line between protecting users and strangling the lifeblood out of the industry — or forcing it outside the United States. 

“Whether we like it or not, regulation is coming,” Sheila Warren of the Crypto Council for Innovation tells me during an interview in the lead up to the recent Collision conference in Toronto, Canada.

The CEO of the industry lobby group for blockchain technology explains that rather than trying to stop the inevitable, many companies are now focused on lobbying for rules that work for them instead.

Why the change? With every week seeming to bring new stories of loopholes, hacks and algo stablecoin failures — from the popular Netflix QuadrigaCX documentary to the dizzying world of crypto transaction mixers and the steps law enforcement used to track two Americans accused of selling fraudulent NFTs — increased regulation is starting to look like a better idea. And not just for businesses but also for legislators worried about being reelected. People seem to love hearing about crypto scams and lost money… as long as it’s not their own.

 

Collision

FCA cracks down on the ads of high-risk assets, but not crypto

British financial watchdog will tighten the guidelines for promoting high-risk products to individual investors.

The rise of fake cryptocurrency apps and how to avoid them

Scammers are using fake crypto apps to steal funds from investors. Some malicious apps find their way into official app stores.

Dubai regulation check: Which companies got approvals recently?

In July, exchanges flocked to get approvals under Dubai’s Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) to expand their operations within the region.

First Binance soulbound token BAB targets KYC user credentials

Binance's new Binance Account Bound token is aimed at many use cases in the decentralized society but will initially only serve as Binance KYC user credentials.

Huobi gets green light as exchange provider in Australia

Gibraltar-based cryptocurrency exchange Huobi has received the regulatory greenlight to offer its services in Australia.

Huobi gets green light as exchange provider in Australia

Gibraltar-based cryptocurrency exchange Huobi has received the regulatory greenlight to offer its services in Australia.

Croatian retail giant sees rise in crypto payments despite the bear market

Croatia has been enjoying the growing cryptocurrency adoption despite the ongoing crypto winter, Konzum's director of business applications Ines Barbir said.

Market correction vs. bear market: Key differences explained

Market corrections and bear markets both involve price declines, but knowing how to differentiate between the two is crucial in protecting your investment portfolio.

$200M BitGet BTC-USDT protection fund hints at investor-centric trend

Bitget’s reasoning behind using a combination of a stablecoin and Bitcoin in the protection fund is to counter massive unforeseen volatility in crypto markets.

$200M BitGet BTC-USDT protection fund hints at investor-centric trend

With the ultimate goal to regain investor confidence amid a prolonged bear market, crypto derivatives exchange Bitget launched a $200 million fund to safeguard users’ assets. Bitget joins the growing list of crypto companies, such as Binance, that have taken an investor-centric approach to gain investors’ trust via protection funds.

The Bitget Protection Fund comprises 6,000 Bitcoin (BTC) and 80 million Tether (USDT), valued at $200 million at the time of writing. Considering the fact that crypto winter currently shows almost no signs of slowing down, Bitget pledged to secure the value of the fund for the next three years.

While Bitget chose to self-fund the entire protection fund without relying on a third-party insurance policy, Binance set up its user protection insurance fund, Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU), by allocating 10% of the trading fee. Starting off in 2018, SAFU reached a $1 billion valuation by early 2022. Sharing details about the newly founded fund, Gracy Chen, managing director of Bitget, added:

“The protection fund will help us mitigate investors’ concerns and attract potential users. As we continue to endure the crypto winter, it is crucial that our users can rest assured that their funds are kept safe.”

Bitget’s reasoning behind using a combination of stablecoin and BTC in the protection fund is to counter massive unforeseen volatility in crypto markets. Further safeguarding investors, Bitget implemented stringent Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policies to disallow bad actors from using its services.

Country-specific crypto markets a bad idea, CZ says after gov't talks

Binance CEO Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao has stressed the importance of market liquidity after various countries ask for segregated order books.

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