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Bitcoin (BTC) and other riskier assets slipped on Oct. 21 as traders scrutinized macro indicators that suggest the Federal Reserve would continue to hike rates. Nonetheless, the BTC/USD pair remains rangebound inside the $18,000–$20,000 price range, showing a strong bias conflict in the market.

BTC price holding above $18K since June

Notably, BTC's price has been unable to dive deeper below $18,000 since it first tested the support level in June 2022. As a result, some analysts believe that the cryptocurrency is bottoming out, given it has already corrected by over 70% from its record high of $69,000, established almost a year ago.

"During the 2018 bear market, BTC saw a max drawdown from peak to trough of 84%, lasting 364 days, while the 2014 cycle lasted longer, bottoming after 407 days," noted Arcane Research in its weekly crypto market report, adding:

"Both bottoms were followed by unusually low volatility."

In addition, a flurry of widely-watched on-chain Bitcoin indicators also hints at a potential bullish reversal ahead. Let's look at some of the most historically significant metrics. 

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped further below $19,000 on Oct. 21 as rumors circulated over the United States Federal Reserve.

Fed still on track for major November rate hike

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD abruptly dropping before the Wall Street open, hitting lows of $18,660 on Bitstamp.

A recovery took the pair higher, and it was attempting reclaim $19,000 as support at the time of writing.

The action came as commentators claimed the Fed was softening its policy on rate hikes ahead of the Nov. 1–2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Citing mainstream media quotations from Fed officials, they suggested that the November hike could be the last 75-basis-point adjustment, with smaller ones following.

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.

In a tweet on Oct. 21, the Tesla CEO revealed his belief that the world would only exit recession in Spring 2024.

Musk: Recession will "probably" stay until Q2, 2024

After the United States entered a technical recession with its Q3 GDP data, debate continues over how much worse the scenario could get.

For Musk, while long predicting the U.S. economy would enter recession, the likelihood of a global downturn lingering is now real.

Asked on Twitter how long he considered a recession to last, the world’s richest man was noncommittal, but erred on the side of years rather than months.

Ethereum has witnessed a substantial drop in its daily active address (DAA) count over the last four months, raising fears about more downside for Ether (ETH) price in the coming weeks.

Stagnant Ethereum price spooks investors

The number of Ether DAA dropped to 152,000 on Oct. 21, its lowest level since June, according to data provided by Santiment. In other words, the plunge showed fewer unique Ethereum addresses interacting with the network.

Interestingly, the drop comes after Ether’s 80%-plus correction from its November 2021 high of around $4,850. This coincidence could mean two things: Ethereum users decided to leave the market and/or paused their interaction with the blockchain network after the market’s downturn.

Santiment analysts blamed the drop on “weak hands,” sentimental traders who drop out of the market during a bearish or stagnant phase, noting:

“Disinterest [is] at a high as [the Ethereum] prices have stagnated.”

The current crypto bear market has induced panic, fear and uncertainty in investors. The dire situation started when the global crypto market capitalization dropped below the $2 trillion mark in January 2022. Since then, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by over 70% from its all time-high of $69,044.77 it reached on November 10, 2021. Similarly, the values of other major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have decreased by around 90%. 

So does history tell us anything about when the bear market will end? Let’s start by examining the causes of the 2022 bear market.

Catalysts of the 2022 bear market

There are several factors that caused the current bear run.

First off, the build up to the bear market started in 2021. During this period many regulatory authorities threatened to introduce stringent laws governing cryptocurrencies. This created fear and uncertainty in the market. For example, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a lawsuit against Ripple. China banned bitcoin mining resulting in most BTC miners to relocate to other countries.

A global increase in inflation and rising interest rates instilled fear and uncertainty in the market resulting in lower crypto investment than expected. Although there is much publicity pertaining to the United States inflation and interest rate, other countries such as India have experienced similar challenges.