Decentral Block Post

Crypto markets are flashing a bit of green on Sept. 22 as Bitcoin (BTC) price tacked on a 4.7% gain to trade above $19,300 and Ether (ETH) surged 6.5% to recapture the $1,300 level. 

RSR and Astar Network (ASTAR) also surged by 23% and 17% respectively, but the more notable mover of the day was XRP.

Currently, XRP price reflects a near 25% gain and the asset is up 41% in the past month. According to defense lawyer James K. Filan, on Sept. 18, Ripple Labs filed a motion for summary judgment — a legal process that involves the court making a final decision based on the provided facts, rather than ordering a trial — and a decision on whether XRP is a security is expected by mid-December.

Excitement over the news could be improving investor sentiment about the longer-term prospects for XRP.

Related: Crypto and stocks soften ahead of Fed rate hike, but XRP, ALGO and LDO look ‘interesting’

Crypto markets are flashing a bit of green on Sept. 22 as Bitcoin (BTC) price tacked on a 4.7% gain to trade above $19,300 and Ether (ETH) surged 6.5% to recapture the $1,300 level. 

RSR and Astar Network (ASTAR) also surged by 23% and 17% respectively, but the more notable mover of the day was XRP.

Currently, XRP price reflects a near 25% gain and the asset is up 41% in the past month. According to defense lawyer James K. Filan, on Sept. 18, Ripple Labs filed a motion for summary judgment — a legal process that involves the court making a final decision based on the provided facts, rather than ordering a trial — and a decision on whether XRP is a security is expected by mid-December.

Excitement over the news could be improving investor sentiment about the longer-term prospects for XRP.

Related: Crypto and stocks soften ahead of Fed rate hike, but XRP, ALGO and LDO look ‘interesting’

Bitcoin’s (BTC) and Ether’s (ETH) agonizing 60% and 66% respective drops in price are drawing a lot of criticism from crypto critics and perhaps this is deserved, but there are also plenty of stocks with similar, if not worse, performances. 

The sharp volatility witnessed in crypto prices is partially driven by major centralized yield and lending platforms becoming insolvent, Three Arrows Capital’s bankruptcy and a handful of exchanges and mining pools facing liquidity issues.

For cryptocurrencies, 2022 has definitely not been a good year, and even Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings in Q2 at a loss. The quasi-trillion dollar company still holds a $218 million position, but the news certainly did not help investors’ perception of Bitcoin’s corporate adoption.

Cryptocurrencies are not the only assets impacted by central banks withdrawing stimulus measures and increasing interest rates. A handful of multi-billion dollar companies around the globe have also suffered, with losses that surpass 85% in 2022 alone.

Cash hungry companies saw steep declines in their stock price

Unlike cryptocurrencies, companies, especially those listed on stock markets, rely on financing — whether the cash is used for mergers and acquisitions or day-to-day operations. That is why interest rates set by central banks dramatically impact debt-intensive sectors such as energy, auto sales and technology.

Cryptocurrencies have been in a bear trend since mid-August after they failed to break above the $1.2 trillion market capitalization resistance. Even with the current bear trend and a brutal 25% correction, it has not been enough to break the 3-month-long ascending trend.

The crypto markets' aggregate capitalization declined 7.2% to $920 billion in the 7 days leading to Sept. 21. Investors wanted to play it safe ahead of the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, which decided to increase the interest rate by 0.75%.

By increasing the cost of borrowing cash, the monetary authority aims to curb inflationary pressure while increasing the burden on consumer finance and corporate debt. This explains why investors moved away from risk assets, including stock markets, foreign currencies, commodities and cryptocurrencies. For instance, WTI oil prices ceded 6.8% from Sept. 14, and the MSCI China stock market index dropped 5.1%.

Ether (ETH) also saw a 17.3% retrace during the 7-day period and many altcoins performed even worse. The Ethereum network Merge and its subsequent impact on other GPU-mineable coins caused some skewed results among the worst weekly performers.

Chiliz (CHZ) rallied 21.5% following two successful fan token launches from MIBR esports team and the VASCO soccer team from Brazil.

Cryptocurrencies have been in a bear trend since mid-August after they failed to break above the $1.2 trillion market capitalization resistance. Even with the current bear trend and a brutal 25% correction, it has not been enough to break the three-month-long ascending trend.

The crypto markets' aggregate capitalization declined 7.2% to $920 billion in the seven days leading to Sept. 21. Investors wanted to play it safe ahead of the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, which decided to increase the interest rate by 0.75%.

By increasing the cost of borrowing cash, the monetary authority aims to curb inflationary pressure while increasing the burden on consumer finance and corporate debt. This explains why investors moved away from risk assets, including stock markets, foreign currencies, commodities and cryptocurrencies. For instance, WTI oil prices ceded 6.8% from Sept. 14, and the MSCI China stock market index dropped 5.1%.

Ether (ETH) also saw a 17.3% retrace during the seven-day period and many altcoins performed even worse. The Ethereum network Merge and its subsequent impact on other GPU-mineable coins caused some skewed results among the worst weekly performers.

Chiliz (CHZ) rallied 21.5% following two successful fan token launches from MIBR esports team and the VASCO soccer team from Brazil.

A Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator, which tracks the amount of coin supply held by long-term holders (LTHs) in losses, is signaling that a market bottom could be close.

Eerily accurate Bitcoin bottom pundit

As of Sept. 22, approximately 30% of Bitcoin's LTHs were facing losses due to BTC's decline from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $19,000 now. That is about 3%–5% below the level that previously coincided with Bitcoin's market bottoms.

For instance, in March 2020, Bitcoin price declined below $4,000 amid the COVID-19-led market crash, which happened when the amount of BTC supply held by LTH in loss climbed toward 35%, as shown below.

Similarly, Bitcoin's December 2018 bottom of around $3,200 concurred alongside the LTH loss metric rising above 32%. In both cases, BTC/USD followed up by entering a long bullish cycle.

Hence, the number of LTHs in loss during a typical bear market tends to peak in the 30%–40% range. In other words, Bitcoin's price still has room to drop — likely into the $10,000–$14,000 range —for "LTHs in loss" to reach the historic bottom zone.