Decentral Block Post

The United States equities markets have been under a firm bear grip for a large part of the year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have declined for three quarters in a row, a first since 2009. There was no respite in selling in September and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to record its worst September since 2002. These figures outline the kind of carnage that exists in the equities market.

Compared to these disappointing figures, Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins have not given up much ground in September. This is the first sign that selling could be drying up at lower levels and long-term investors may have started bottom fishing.

In the final quarter of the year, investors will continue to focus on the inflation data. Any indication of inflation topping could bring about a sharp recovery in risk assets, but if inflation remains stubbornly high, then a round of sell-offs could follow.

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine if a recovery is on the cards.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) has been under intense selling pressure for the past few days but the bulls have held their ground. This indicates that bulls are buying the dips near 3,636.

Crypto lending firm Nexo (NEXO) risks losing half of its valuation by the end of 2022 as doubts about its potential insolvency grow in the market.

Is Nexo too centralized?

For the unversed: eight U.S. states filed a cease-and-desist order against Nexo on Sep. 26, alleging that the firm offers unregistered securities to investors without alerting them about the risks of the financial products.

In particular, the regulators in the state of Kentucky accused Nexo of being insolvent, noting that without its namesake native token, NEXO, the firm's "liabilities would exceed its assets." As of July 31, Nexo had 959,089,286 NEXO in its reserves. That's 95.9% of all tokens in existence.

"This is a big, big, big problem because a very basic market analysis demonstrates that Nexo would be unable to monetize a significant chunk of these tokens," noted @MikeBurgersburg, an independent market analyst and author of the Dirty Bubble Media Substack, adding:

"Given that fact, the true value of the $NEXO tokens on Nexo’s balance sheet is likely close to $0."

Crypto lending firm Nexo is at risk of losing half of the valuation of its native token by the end of 2022 as doubts about its potential insolvency grow in the market.

Is Nexo too centralized?

For the unversed: Eight U.S. states filed a cease-and-desist order against Nexo on Sep. 26, alleging that the firm offers unregistered securities to investors without alerting them about the risks of the financial products.

In particular, regulators in Kentucky accused Nexo of being insolvent, noting that without its namesake native token, NEXO, the firm’s “liabilities would exceed its assets.” As of July 31, Nexo had 959,089,286 NEXO in its reserves — 95.9% of all tokens in existence.

“This is a big, big, big problem because a very basic market analysis demonstrates that Nexo would be unable to monetize a significant chunk of these tokens,” noted Mike Burgersburg, an independent market analyst and author of the Dirty Bubble Media Substack, adding:

“Given that fact, the true value of the $NEXO tokens on Nexo’s balance sheet is likely close to $0.”

Bitcoin (BTC) swiftly climbed above $20,000 after the Sept. 30 Wall Street open as end-of-month volatility began. 

Bitcoin volatility back for monthly close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 3% in a single hourly candle to hit local highs of $20,171 on Bitstamp.

The move followed predictions from traders, who were looking for slightly higher levels to precede a fresh downside move.

"Moving my stop to my entry now at 19.3k but letting it ride first to 21.7k where I think there's some major resistance," popular trader Pentoshi wrote in part of a fresh Twitter update about his trading plans.

"Looks like strength to me," trading account IncomeSharks continued.

Bitcoin (BTC) miners remain under stress at current price levels as data shows large outflows from miner wallets returning.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, monthly miner sales totaled up to around 8,000 BTC in September.

Bitcoin miners see heavy sales

In contrast to the June lows, when BTC/USD hit its current multi-year floor of $17,600, miners are currently selling considerable amounts of BTC.

According to Glassnode, which tracks the 30-day change in miner balances, at the start of the month, miners were down a maximum 8,650 BTC over the month prior.

While this subsequently reduced, taking into account changes in the BTC price, miners are still selling more than they earn on a rolling monthly basis.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to intraday resistance on Sep. 30 as analysis predicted that $20,000 could break before a new comedown.

Crunch time for $20,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it circled $19,600 at the time of writing.

The pair had seen a bout of more volatile behavior the day prior, briefly losing $19,000 before bid support took the market higher.

The day looked to be an important one for bulls, with the monthly close combining with European Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Geopolitical events involving Russia’s official annexation of Ukrainian territory and associated implications were also on traders’ radar. Russian president Vladimir Putin was expected to speak at a ceremony during which he would formally ratify four Ukrainian regions joining Russia.