Decentral Block Post

The 10-year Treasury yield in the United States rose to its highest level since 2008. Although this type of rally is usually negative for risky assets, the U.S. stock markets recovered ground after the Wall Street Journal reported that some officials of the Federal Reserve were concerned about the pace of the rate hikes and the risks of over-tightening.

While it is widely accepted that the U.S. will enter a recession, a debate rages on about how long it could last. On that, Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said on Twitter that the recession could last “probably until spring of ‘24,” and added that it would be nice to spend “one year without a horrible global event.”

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has witnessed a massive drop from its all-time high but its hash rate remains strong. This has increased Bitcoin’s discount relative to its hash rate in October to its highest since the first quarter of 2020, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. The previous instance of the huge discount was followed by a massive rally that lasted till 2021. McGlone believes the same could happen again this time and Bitcoin may outperform most major assets.

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index (SPX), the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to spot any reversals.

SPX

The S&P 500 index rose above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (3,702) on Oct. 18 but the bulls could not build upon this strength and challenge the downtrend line. This suggests that the bears have not given up and are active at higher levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) and other riskier assets slipped on Oct. 21 as traders scrutinized macro indicators that suggest the Federal Reserve would continue to hike rates. Nonetheless, the BTC/USD pair remains rangebound inside the $18,000–$20,000 price range, showing a strong bias conflict in the market.

BTC price holding above $18K since June

Notably, BTC's price has been unable to dive deeper below $18,000 since it first tested the support level in June 2022. As a result, some analysts believe that the cryptocurrency is bottoming out, given it has already corrected by over 70% from its record high of $69,000, established almost a year ago.

"During the 2018 bear market, BTC saw a max drawdown from peak to trough of 84%, lasting 364 days, while the 2014 cycle lasted longer, bottoming after 407 days," noted Arcane Research in its weekly crypto market report, adding:

"Both bottoms were followed by unusually low volatility."

In addition, a flurry of widely-watched on-chain Bitcoin indicators also hints at a potential bullish reversal ahead. Let's look at some of the most historically significant metrics. 

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped further below $19,000 on Oct. 21 as rumors circulated over the United States Federal Reserve.

Fed still on track for major November rate hike

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD abruptly dropping before the Wall Street open, hitting lows of $18,660 on Bitstamp.

A recovery took the pair higher, and it was attempting reclaim $19,000 as support at the time of writing.

The action came as commentators claimed the Fed was softening its policy on rate hikes ahead of the Nov. 1–2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Citing mainstream media quotations from Fed officials, they suggested that the November hike could be the last 75-basis-point adjustment, with smaller ones following.

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.

In a tweet on Oct. 21, the Tesla CEO revealed his belief that the world would only exit recession in Spring 2024.

Musk: Recession will "probably" stay until Q2, 2024

After the United States entered a technical recession with its Q3 GDP data, debate continues over how much worse the scenario could get.

For Musk, while long predicting the U.S. economy would enter recession, the likelihood of a global downturn lingering is now real.

Asked on Twitter how long he considered a recession to last, the world’s richest man was noncommittal, but erred on the side of years rather than months.

Ethereum has witnessed a substantial drop in its daily active address (DAA) count over the last four months, raising fears about more downside for Ether (ETH) price in the coming weeks.

Stagnant Ethereum price spooks investors

The number of Ether DAA dropped to 152,000 on Oct. 21, its lowest level since June, according to data provided by Santiment. In other words, the plunge showed fewer unique Ethereum addresses interacting with the network.

Interestingly, the drop comes after Ether’s 80%-plus correction from its November 2021 high of around $4,850. This coincidence could mean two things: Ethereum users decided to leave the market and/or paused their interaction with the blockchain network after the market’s downturn.

Santiment analysts blamed the drop on “weak hands,” sentimental traders who drop out of the market during a bearish or stagnant phase, noting:

“Disinterest [is] at a high as [the Ethereum] prices have stagnated.”