Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) price lost steam after a failed rupture of the $27,500 resistance on May 15, putting bears in a better position for the May 19 expiry. The regulatory newsflow likely played a key role in trimming investors’ risk appetite as governments seek more control over the sector.

In a memo circulated among committee members, Democrats in the United States legislature sought to cement the SEC’s authority over crypto. The document was made public on May 10, including the argument that nearly all digital assets constitute securities. Moreover, according to Gensler’s view, even network nodes are in violation of securities laws.

The United Kingdom’s Treasury Committee “strongly recommended” on May 17 regulating retail crypto trading and investment activity as gambling, consistent with the principle of “same risk, same regulatory outcome.” Treasury Committee Chair Harriett Baldwin described Bitcoin and Ether as accounting for two-thirds of the total market capitalization of crypto assets, both of which she claimed are “unbacked.”

The $735 million Bitcoin weekly options expiry on May 19 might play a decisive role in determining whether the price will capitulate by falling below $26,000.

Bitcoin could be making a short-term bottom

Bitcoin bears will try to take advantage of the negative regulatory environment, and uncertainty caused by the risk of the U.S. Treasury ‘running out of funds’ as the debt ceiling approaches. Such a pessimistic scenario partially explains why some Bitcoin traders decided to reduce exposure over the past couple of weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a new “speculation cycle” typical of a bull run, new analysis says.

In a tweet on May 16, Philip Swift, creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, revealed history repeating itself according to the RHODL Ratio metric.

RHODL Ratiocreator on BTC price: "Zoom out"

RHODL Ratio is a method of tracking BTC price behavior based on the realized price of the supply — the price at which coins last moved.

Created by Swift in 2020, it compares the relative ages of coins which moved one week ago to those which moved 1-2 years ago.

This ratio gives an insight into the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs), and by extension the extent to which speculation is present on the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) looked poised to give up $27,000 as support on May 17, with traders waiting for new lows.

Whales meet low liquidity

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near $26,800 at the time of writing.

The pair had staged multiple crosses of the $27,000 mark the day before, with that level forming a low-timeframe focus now at risk of breaking down.

“3 wave up into resistance, followed by a retest and a rejection off resistance zone,” popular trader Crypto Tony summarized about recent activity.

He added that a potential target to wait for was now $26,400.

Since May 12, Ether’s price has been struggling to sustain its $1,800 support level, as investors face pressures from a worsening crypto regulatory environment and the Ethereum network’s high gas fees. Also negatively impacting Ether’s (ETH) price are three indicators signaling reduced demand for its decentralized applications (DApps) and a lack of leverage buying demand from professional traders.

Regulators signal their plan to further limit crypto intermediaries

According to court documents filed on May 15, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given a formal response in court in relation to Coinbase’s petition for clear crypto regulation. The SEC stated that any rulemaking may take years and that enforcement actions will continue in the meantime.

On May 16, the Economic and Financial Affairs Council of the European Union — comprising finance ministers of all member states — approved the highly anticipated Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which will come into effect by mid-2024.

Some argue that MiCA facilitates business growth in the region. Others focus on the privacy risks for personal users’ data and the risks imposed on non-custodial solutions, including decentralized finance applications.

The drop in DApp deposits is concerning

The price of Lido DAO (LDO) has rebounded to its three-week high of $2.21 as of May 16, up 40% when measured from its local low of $1.57, established four days ago.

This impressive double-digit recovery appeared in tandem with other top-ranking crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). However, LDO has greatly outperformed the broader crypto market (TOTAL), which is up only 4.5% since May 12.

But what are the reasons why Lido DAO is outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market right now? Let’s take a closer look at the three biggest factors likely driving up LDO’s price.

Ether depositors’ return after Shapella

The LDO price recovery coincides with the net positive inflows into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) contract in recent days.

Lido DAO is primarily an Ethereum liquid staking platform. It enables users to pool their funds to become validators on Ethereum, thus bypassing the network’s requirement of depositing at least 32 ETH.