Decentral Block Post

The explosiveness and high dollar value of nonfungible tokens (NFTs) seem to either distract investors from upping their operational security to avoid exploits, or hackers are simply following the money and using very complex strategies to exploit collectors’ wallets.

At least, this was the case for me way back when after I fell for a classic message sent to me over Discord that caused me to slowly but all too quickly lose my most valuable assets.

Most of the scams on Discord occur in a very similar fashion where a hacker takes a roster of members on the server and then sends direct messages to them in hopes they will bite at the bait.

“It happens to the best of us,” are not the words you want to hear in relation to a hack. Here are the top three things I learned from my experience on how to double-up on security, starting with minimizing the use of a hot wallet and simply ignoring DM’d links

A quick crash course in hardware wallets

After my hack, I was immediately reminded and I cannot reiterate it enough, never share your seed phrase. No one should be asking for it. I also learned that I could no longer forego security at the privilege of convenience.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trying to break out of a descending trend for the past week and the first attempt on June 16 failed to break the $22,600 resistance. The second attempt at $21,400 on June 21 was followed by an 8% price correction. After two failed breakouts, the price currently trades below $20,000 and raises questions on whether $17,600 was really the bottom.

The longer it takes for BTC to break from this bearish pattern, the stronger the resistance line becomes and traders are following the trend closely. That is precisely why it’s important for bulls to show strength during this week’s $2.25 billion monthly options expiry.

Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh down on crypto markets after European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde voiced her conviction on the necessity of tighter scrutiny. On June 20, Lagarde expressed her thoughts on the sector’s staking and lending activities: "[...] the lack of regulation is often covering fraud, completely illegitimate claims about valuation and very often speculation as well as criminal dealings."

Bitcoin miners being forced to liquidate their BTC holdings is adding more negative pressure to BTC price and data from Arcane Research shows that publicly-listed Bitcoin mining firms sold 100% of their BTC production in May compared to the usual 20% to 40% in previous months. Collectively, miners hold 800,000 BTC, which creates concerns about a possible sell-off. The Bitcoin price correction drained miners' profitability because the production cost has, at times, exceeded their margins.

The June 24 options expiry will be especially alarming for investors because Bitcoin bears are likely to profit by $620 million by suppressing BTC below $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) checked losses while United States equities drifted down on June 22 as the Federal Reserve kept quiet on monetary policy.

Powell keeps quiet on Fed moves

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near $20,500 at the June 22 Wall Street open.

The pair had wicked below the $20,000 mark overnight before recovering, still down from the previous day's $21,700 highs.

Markets braced for last-minute surprises from testimony to Congress by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the day, this ultimately providing no fresh insight into the central bank's approach to taming rampant inflation.

"We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy," a copy of Powell's testimony released before his appearance read.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a dramatic change of mood into June 22 as multi-day highs gave way to a fresh dive under $20,000.

BTC could see accumulation below key trendline

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD abruptly halting its latest gains to hit lows of $19,947 on Bitstamp.

The largest cryptocurrency had passed $21,700 the day before, its best performance since June 16, but momentum waned during Wall Street trading.

For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, there was danger in BTC/USD being unable to reclaim its 200-week moving average (MA).

As a classic support line in previous bear markets, Bitcoin had formerly retained the 200-week MA as support with wicks below it characterizing macro price bottoms.

Avalanche (AVAX) is down 45% in 30 days and in the same time the cryptocurrencies total market capitalization shrank by 29%.

Despite the recent downturn, this decentralized application (DApp) platform remains a top contender in the layer-1 and layer-2 race and it ranks high in terms of smart contract deposits and active addresses. Yet, the lackluster token price is still causing investors to rethink whether the network remains a “serious” competitor.

The brutal sell-off on risk assets caused AVAX to test the $14.80 support multiple times, while the current market capitalization stands at $4.8 billion. It’s important also to note that the network’s total value locked (TVL) holds an impressive $3.2 billion.

As a comparison, Solana (SOL) offers incredibly low network fees and holds a $2.1 billion TVL. Yet, SOL token’s market cap stands at $12.9 billion, which is almost three times larger than Avalanche’s valuation at the $14.80 price level.

The TVL indicator is extremely relevant because it measures the deposits on the network’s smart contracts. If we use Polygon (MATIC), an Ethereum layer-2 solution, as a proxy, the network holds a $1.8 billion TVL while the token's market capitalization stands at $3.5 billion.

There is good reason to be afraid. Previous down markets have seen declines in excess of 80%. While tightfisted hodling might hold wisdom among many Bitcoin (BTC) maximalists, speculators in altcoins know that diamond handing can mean near (or total) annihilation. 

Regardless of one’s investment philosophy, in risk-off environments, participation flees the space with haste. The purest among us might see a silver lining as the devastation clears the forest floor of weeds, leaving room for the strongest projects to flourish. Though, doubtlessly, there are many saplings lost who would grow to great heights themselves if they had a chance.

Investment and interest in the digital asset space are water and sunlight to the fertile ground of ideas and entrepreneurship. Less severe declines better serve the market; better a garden than a desert.

A brief history of crypto bear markets

In order to solve a problem, we must first understand its catalyst. Bitcoin and the wider digital asset space have survived a number of bear markets since its inception. By some accounts, depending on one’s definition, we are currently in number five.

The first half of 2012 was fraught with regulatory uncertainty culminating in the closure of TradeHill, the second-largest Bitcoin exchange. This was followed by the hacks of both Bitcoinica and Linode, resulting in tens of thousands of Bitcoin lost and dropping the market by some 40%.¹ But, the price rebounded, albeit briefly, finding new heights above $16 until further hacks, regulatory fears and defaults from the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Ponzi Scheme collapsed the price yet again, down 37%.¹

Bitcoin (BTC) saw continued strength on June 21 as Wall Street trading opened with a trip to near $21,500.

Analyst eyes diminishing BTC stocks correlation

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it reached $21,633 on Bitstamp, its best performance since June 16.

The largest cryptocurrency managed to avoid fresh losses into the new week; so far, these are reserved for the weekend. As such, futures markets reopened without being subjected to the dip to $17,600.

While some planned to short BTC at current levels, the mood among market participants was broadly one of "wait and see" as U.S. equities opened up. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both added around 2.5% on the open. 

Popular trader Bierre was eyeing the 200-period moving average (MA) on the four-hour chart. For him, breaking it on the day would be a sign of strength not seen for multiple weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) megahodler MicroStrategy can ride out further BTC price declines, even if it falls to just $3,500, its CEO confirms.

In a tweet on June 14, Michael Saylor sought to allay fears that his firm's BTC exposure may be about to cost it dearly.

Saylor stays calm as MSTR dips further

With the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, MicroStrategy has felt the pain of this year's BTC price declines — at least on paper.

According to the monitoring resource Bitcoin Treasuries, the firm's 129,218 BTC stack is currently being held at a net loss of $1.06 billion — around two-thirds of its total market cap.

This week, rumors over a potential default on a $205 million used to purchase those reserves intensified. Specifically, BTC/USD dropping below $21,000 would trigger a margin call, potentially losing MicroStrategy its position if it did not respond with extra capital.

Bitcoin (BTC) came within $1,000 of its previous cycle all-time highs on June 14 as liquidations mounted across crypto markets. 

Bitcoin price hits 18-month lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $20,816, on Bitstamp, its lowest since the week of December 14, 2020.

A sell-off that began before the weekend intensified after the June 13 Wall Street opening bell, with Bitcoin and altcoins falling in step with United States equities.

The S&P 500 finished the day down 3.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 4.7% ahead of key comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its anti-inflation policy.

The worst of the rout was reserved for crypto, however, and with that, BTC/USD lost 22.4% from the start of the week to the time of writing.

Bitcoin's (BTC) month-long choppy price action came to an end on June 13 after a deep market sell-off pressed the top cryptocurrency under the $29,000 support. The move took place as equities markets also sold off sharply, hitting their lowest levels of the year. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the Bitcoin sell-off began late in the day on June 12 and escalated into midday on June 13, when BTC hit a low of $22,592.

Here’s a look at what several market analysts are saying about Bitcoin's drop and whether this is the final capitulation event before the long-awaited price bottom.

Is there solid support at $23,000?

Previous instances of bear market capitulation have seen a solid level of support at Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, as shown in the following chart posted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Rekt Capital.”

Based on the trend from the last two cycles, Rekt Capital suggested that it's possible that BTC could see a “macro double bottom at the 200-week moving average” moving forward if the price action plays out in a similar fashion.

On June 13, cryptocurrency prices plunged deeper into bear market territory after Bitcoin (BTC) sliced through its current trading range and briefly touched $22,600, its lowest level se since December 2020.

According to BTC historical data, the market has now reached valuation metrics that show the price is severely oversold and perhaps near a bottom. Bitcoin has now fallen below its realized price, which represents the average price of every coin in supply based on the time it was last spent on-chain.

While the pain that this most recent capitulation has wrought across the ecosystem can’t be understated, the one glimmer of hope it offers weary crypto traders is that the worst of the decline could have occurred. The coming days will confirm this theory and proof would be institutions and retail traders stepping in to buy the dip.

"Shrimps and whales" accumulate

On-chain data shows that not all traders feel devastated about Bitcoin at yearly lows. Shrimp wallets, wallets that hold less than 1 BTC, and whale wallets with more than 10,000 BTC have been in accumulation mode since the old Terra (LUNA), now known as Luna Classic (LUNC), collapsed in early May.

According to data from blockchain intelligence provider Glassnode, shrimp wallets “have seen a net balance growth of +20,863 since the May 9th Luna crash,” and a total increase of 96,300 BTC since November's all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $28,000 support on June 12 following worsening macroeconomic conditions. The United States Treasury 2-year note yield closed on June 10 at 3.10%, its highest level since December 2007. This shows that traders are demanding higher rates to hold their debt instruments and expect inflation to remain a persistent challenge.

Louis S. Barnes, a senior loan officer at Cherry Creek, stated that as the United States reported its highest inflation in 40 years, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets had zero buyers. Barnes added:

"Stocks are down 2% today [June 10], but would be down a hell of a lot more if considering what a full-stop to housing will mean."

MicroStrategy and Celsius leverage use raised alarms

Bitcoin’s sell-off is adding more pressure to the cryptocurrency market and various media are discussing whether the U.S. Nasdaq-listed analytics and business intelligence company MicroStrategy and its $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank will add to the current crypto collapse. The interest-only loan was issued on March 29, 2022, and secured by Bitcoin, which is held in a mutually authorized custodian's account.

As stated by Microstrategy's earnings call by chief financial officer Phong Le on May 3, if Bitcoin plummeted to $21,000, an additional amount of margin would be required. However, on May 10, Michael Saylor clarified that the entire 115,109 BTC position could be pledged, reducing the liquidation to $3,562.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) fell to as low as $950 on Uniswap—a decentralized crypto exchange— this June 13, about 20% lower than its spot rate across other exchanges.

Over $130M ETH sold in six hours

The incident happened at around 3:00 am UTC after a whale dumped 65,000 ETH for multiple "stablecoins," including USD Coin (USDC), Tether (USDT) and Dai (DAI).

A piece of evidence noted that the whale sold its ETH holdings to pay off nearly $73 million worth of debt at Oasis.app, a DeFi lending platform. The duration of the sell-off saw ETH's liquidation price dropping from $1,200 to $875.

The Oasis borrower continued the selling spree—dumping another stash of nearly 28,000 ETH five hours after the first selloff—to pay back another $32 million in debt. This time, the liquidation price rose from $892 to $1,200, as shown below.

As a result, the whale dumped around 93,000 ETH within just six hours. The amount equals toroughly $112 million at June 13's ETH/USD price.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its lowest since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.

As the weekend sell-off intensifies, BTC/USD has now broken below its realized price for the first time since March 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

Bitcoin clings to realized price

At around $23,400, the realized price — the average price at which each BTC last moved — is acting as the first solid support so far on lower timeframes.

Previous levels, including those highlighted as potential bottoms, have failed to hold, and sentiment continues to favor further sell-side pressure thanks to the Celsius aftermath, inflation and forthcoming actions by the United States Federal Reserve.

Where BTC/USD could put in a final macro floor, meanwhile, is now a topic of heated debate.

Older Bitcoin (BTC) mining rigs are finding it difficult to generate positive revenues during the ongoing crypto market decline.

75% drop in Bitcoin mining profitability

The profitability of many Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) machines has dropped into the negative zone after Bitcoin's fall below $24,000 this June 13, data fetched by F2Pool shows. Those machines include Antminer S11 and AvalonMiner 921, which are now close to their "shutdown price."

Notably, Bitmain's Antminer S11 offers a maximum hash rate of 20.5 Terra-hash per second (TH/s) for a power consumption of 1,530 watts.

The cost of running an Antiminer 211 is 0.13 kilowatts per hour (KW/h) based on the global average electricity cost. As a result, it would consume around $4.5 worth of power every day versus the roughly $2 income in the same period, according to data gathered by ASIC Miner Value.

Similarly, the cost of running Canaan's AvalonMiner 921 comes to be around $5 per day compared to its income of over $2 in the same period.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced continued selling pressure before the June 13 Wall Street open as Ether (ETH) revisited multiyear lows.

Bitcoin battles for $24,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD eclipsing its 10-month lows set in mid-May.

The largest cryptocurrency faced bearish triggers on multiple fronts, these coming from both within and beyond the crypto sphere.

Fintech protocol Celsius appeared on the brink of meltdown after operations were halted, turning billions of dollars in collateral into new risk for crypto markets. In an event ironically similar to that which caused the May rout, Bitcoin and altcoins kept falling as fresh uncertainty filled the air.

Macro conditions were hardly better, with Asian markets selling off and Wall Street futures looking set to continue the downtrend that set in last week.

Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with a totally different feel to last as BTC/USD seals its lowest weekly close since December 2020.

A night of losses into June 13 means that the largest cryptocurrency is now edging closer to beating its ten-month lows from May.

The weakness has left few guessing: shock inflation data from the United States last week sparked a chain reaction across risk assets and low weekend liquidity appeared to exacerbate the consequences for crypto assets.

The macro pain continues this week. The Federal Reserve is due to provide information on rate hikes and the economy more broadly — the first official policy update since the inflation figures.

The mood among analysts on both Bitcoin and altcoins — while not unanimously bearish — is thus one of resignation. A period of painful trading and hodling conditions may have to be endured before a return to the upside, something which at least chimes with the historical patterns of Bitcoin’s halving cycles.

Bitcoin (BTC) focused on $21,000 into the weekend amid warnings that volatility could still consume the market before June 27.

S&P 500 sees second best week of 2022

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD broadly higher in its recent trading range after United States stocks ended the week strong.

As noted by markets commentators Holger Zschaepitz, the S&P 500 sealed its second best week of 2022, indicative of modest relief across risk assets.

Bitcoin was on track to log slights gains at its weekly close, the first weekly green candle — albeit small — since May.

Before then, however, anything could happen, according to on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators (MI).