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Bitcoin (BTC) provided a long awaited breakout into Sept. 7 as BTC price action dashed bulls’ hopes of a recovery.

$23,000 relief bounce "still likely" says trader

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured snap losses for BTC/USD later on Sept. 6, with overnight lows coming in at $18,540 on Bitstamp.

The pair put in its lowest levels since June 30, taking liquidity from the July floor and only marginally recovering on the day.

Downside price action followed almost a week of sideways movements and volatility was nowhere to be seen as market participants gritted their teeth hoping for an exit to the upside.

In the event, they were left disappointed, but for popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, there was still reason to believe that a relief bounce would occur.

An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15.

It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction.

Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismissed as Ether dropped 5.6% on Sept. 6, while Bitcoin's $860 loss represents a 3.8% change.

The market has been in a bit of a rut since Aug. 27 comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was followed by a $1.25 trillion loss in U.S. stocks in a single day. At the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said that larger interest rate hikes were still firmly on the table, causing the S&P 500 to close down 3.4% that day.

Let’s take a look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors have been pricing higher odds of a downturn.

On Sept. 6, Bitcoin (BTC) price crumbled below $20,000 and the asset looks ready to undergo further decline in September due to a strong U.S. dollar and an ominous technical analysis pattern.

Bitcoin eyes $15,000 next

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin risks dropping to $15,000 or below in the coming weeks after breaking out of its prevailing "bear flag" pattern.

For the unversed, bear flags form when the price consolidates higher inside a parallel, ascending range after a strong downtrend. They typically resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend's length.

Bitcoin has entered the so-called breakdown stage of its bear flag pattern, with its downside target lurking south of $15,000, as illustrated in the chart above.

Cash is king

The prospects of a weaker Bitcoin heading further into 2022 are growing mainly because of a worsening economic backdrop.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded in an increasingly narrow range on Sept. 6 as bets piled in over an imminent breakout.

Binance futures giant sucks in spent BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD staying under $20,000 for a fourth straight day with bulls failing to crack resistance.

As many wondered when and how the latest consolidation phase would end, two popular social media traders noticed an ongoing accumulation trend by an unknown large-scale Binance futures trading entity.

With retail investors selling, that entity had spent several days soaking up the liquidity, and the result was likely obvious.

“Bounce incoming,” Il Capo of Crypto predicted in part of an update on the phenomenon, describing the entity’s long BTC position as “massive” and “easily” worth 30,000 BTC or more.

The assumption that Ethereum will just transition to a fully functional proof-of-stake (PoS) network after the Merge somewhat ignores the risk and effort necessary to move an asset that has a $193 billion market capitalization and 400 decentralized applications (DApps).

That is precisely why monitoring vital network conditions is essential for anyone willing to trade the event which is scheduled for Sept. 14, according to ethernodes.org. More importantly, traders should be prepared to detect any alarming developments in case things go wrong.

Apart from the $34.2 billion in total value locked in smart contracts, another $5.3 billion in Ether is staked on the Beacon Chain. The network is currently used by many tokens, oracle providers, stablecoins, layer-2 scalability solutions, synthetic assets, nonfungible items (NFT), decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and cross-chain bridges.

This partially explains why the Merge has been postponed multiple times through the years and why it is deemed to be the most significant upgrade in the history of the network.

For this reason, three different testnets have undergone the Merge, with Goerli being the latest on Aug. 11. Curiously, minor issues were presented on all testnet implementations, including Ropsten and Sepolia. For instance, Ethereum developer Marius van der Wijden noted that “two different terminal blocks and lots of non-updated nodes” slightly slowed the process down.

Ethereum Classic (ETC) price rallied on Sept. 5 on back-to-back positive reports concerning its adoption among crypto miners.

Top mining pool supports Ethereum Classic

On the daily chart, ETC's price surged 14.5% to nearly $37.25 per token. Its massive gains came days after BTC.com, a blockchain explorer and crypto mining pool, launched a specialized Ethereum Classic pool with "zero-fee" mining for three months.

The announcement appeared after "the Merge," a long-awaited network update that would switch Ethereum's energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) protocol to a "cost-efficient" and scalable alternative, the proof-of-stake (PoS), on Sept. 19 or before.

But the switch to PoS will make Ethereum's PoW miners futile. On the other hand, Ethereum Classic, the original version of Ethereum, which still uses PoW, could become a haven for the miners affected by the Merge.

The network is already attracting PoW miners en masse, confirmed by its hashrate, which touched a record high of 41.81 Terrahash per second (TH/s) on Sept. 4. For the unversed, hashrate is the total computational power used to mine and process transactions on a PoW blockchain.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of September still trying to cement $20,000 as support as the bears clinch control.

The largest cryptocurrency emerges from a sideways weekend with a weekly close almost exactly at the $20,000 mark — but that significant psychological level is already struggling.

Expectations already favored further downside during this month — the so-called “Septembear” phenomenon, which normally sees BTC price lose ground in September — and so far, there has been little evidence that this year will be different to most.

BTC/USD is down 1.5% in September 2022, and while the losses are modest, there are plenty of potential catalysts on the horizon.

Macroeconomic turmoil remains the name of the game in much of the world, the emphasis increasingly shifting to Europe as the energy crisis unfolds and the euro reaches twenty-year lows versus the United States dollar.

The decline in the United States equities markets last week extended the market-wide losing streak to three consecutive weeks. The Nasdaq Composite fell for six days in a row for the first time since 2019. The markets negative reaction to a seemingly positive August jobs report suggests that traders are nervous about the Federal Reserve’s future steps and its effects on the economy.

Weakness in the U.S. equities markets pulled Bitcoin (BTC) back below $20,000 on Sept. 2 and bears sustained the price below the level during the weekend. This pulled Bitcoin’s market dominance to just under 39% on Sept. 4, its lowest level since June 2018, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Although the sentiment remains negative and it is difficult to call a bottom, investors who believe in the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies could take the opportunity to gradually build positions at lower levels instead of trying to catch the bottom. However, investors could avoid chasing prices higher during bear market rallies and look to buy when the price falls to strong support levels.

If Bitcoin stages a recovery, select altcoins could move higher. Let’s study the charts of top-5 cryptocurrencies that are looking strong on the charts.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between $19,520 and $20,576 for the past few days which shows a balance between the buyers and sellers in the near term. Although bulls are buying on dips, they have failed to overcome the selling at higher levels.

When Bitcoin was trading above $60,000, the smartest analysts and financial-minded folk told investors that BTC price would never fall below its previous all time high. 

These same individuals also said $50,000 was a buy the dip opportunity, and then they said $35,000 was a generational buy opportunity. Later on, they also suggested that BTC would never fall under $20,000.

Of course, “now” is a great time to buy the dip, and one would think that buying BTC at or under $10,000 would also be the purchase of a lifetime. But by now, all the so-called “experts'' have fallen quiet and are nowhere to be seen or heard.

So, investors are left to their own devices and thoughts to contemplate whether or not the bottom is in. Should one be patient and wait for the forecast “drop to $10,000” or is now the time to buy Bitcoin and altcoins?

Generally, calling price bottoms is a futile task. What's really important to focus on is whether or not there are fundamental reasons for choosing to or not to invest in Bitcoin.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is not immune to downside risk in September after rallying approximately 90% from its bottom of around $880 in June.

Much of the token's upside move is attributed to the Merge, a technical upgrade that would make Ethereum a proof-of-stake (PoS) protocol, slated for Sep. 15.

But despite logging impressive gains between June and September, Ether still trades almost 70% below its record high of around $4,950 from November 2021. Therefore, its possibility of heading lower remains on the cards.

Here are three Ethereum bearish market indicators that show why more downside is likely. 

Sell the Ethereum Merge news

Ethereum options traders anticipate Ether's price to reach $2,200 from its current $1,540 level ahead of the Merge, according to Deribit data compiled by Glassnode. Some even see the price hitting $5,000, but enthusiasm looks flat post the PoS switch.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $20,000 on Sep. 3 as commodities declined on news of a G7 Russian energy ban.

All down after gloomy macro week

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed ongoing lackluster performance on BTC/USD, which traded around $19,800.

The largest cryptocurrency looked increasingly unable to flip $20,000 to firm support as the weekend began, and the mood among market participants was jaded.

Eyeing the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA), popular trader Cheds noted its strength as intraday resistance continuing into September.

United States equities closed out a troublesome week, the S&P 500 down 2.7% and Nasdaq Composite Index 3.25%, respectively.

Markets are scary right now, and while the situation is likely to worsen, it doesn’t mean investors need to sit out and watch from the sidelines. In fact, history has proven that one of the best times to buy Bitcoin (BTC) is when no one is talking about Bitcoin.

Remember the 2018–2020 crypto winter? I do. Hardly anyone, including mainstream media, was talking about crypto in a positive or negative way. It was during this time of prolonged downtrend and lengthy sideways chop that smart investors were accumulating in preparation for the next bull trend.

Of course, nobody knew “when” this parabolic advance would take place, but the example is purely meant to illustrate that crypto might be in a crab market, but there are still great strategies for investing in Bitcoin.

Let’s take a look at three.

Accumulation via dollar-cost averaging

It’s helpful to be price agnostic when it comes to investing in assets over the long term. A price agnostic investor is immune to fluctuations in value and will identify a few assets that they believe in and continue to add to the positions. If the project has good fundamentals, a strong, active use case and a healthy network, it makes more sense to just dollar-cost average (DCA) into a position.

Let's rewind the tape to the end of 2021 when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $47,000, which at the time was 32% lower than the all-time high. During that time, the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock market index held 15,650 points, just 3% below its highest-ever mark.

Comparing the Nasdaq's 75% gain between 2021 and 2022 to Bitcoin's 544% positive move, one could assume that an eventual correction caused by macroeconomic tensions or a major crisis, would lead to Bitcoin’s price being disproportionately impacted than stocks.

Eventually, these “macroeconomic tensions and crises” did occur and Bitcoin price plunging another 57% to $20,250. This shouldn’t be a surprise given that the Nasdaq is down 24.4% as of Sept. 2. Investors also must factor in that the index’s historical 120-day volatility is 40% annualized, versus Bitcoin's 72%, which is roughly 80% higher.

That’s the core reason why investors should re-evaluate investing in Bitcoin. The risk-to-reward potential after the downward adjustment in risk assets possibly leaves more upside for the cryptocurrency considering three factors: higher volatility during a moderate recovery, equity offerings and resistance to regulatory sanctions.

The problem is the market is now in a drawn-out bear trend and there are no signs that point to a quick recovery because double-digit inflation in many countries continues to pressure the central banks to sustain a tighter stance. Notice below how both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have struggled throughout 2022.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $20,400 for the first time this month on Sept. 2 as United States economic data outperformed expectations.

Declining dollar accompanies BTC price rebound

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $20,500 after the Wall Street open, marking new highs for September.

The pair had responded well to U.S. non-farm payroll data, which in August showed inflows dropping less than expected.

A further boost came from news that the G7 had agreed to implement a price cap on Russian oil, with the European Union also planning to target the country’s gas imports.

While the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both added 1.25% after the first hour’s trading, the U.S. dollar conversely fell in step, looking set to dive below 109 at the time of writing.

The price of CEL soared by nearly 50% as traders assessed its parent firm Celsius Network’s inclination to return a portion of the locked funds to its customers.

No CEL-ling pressure for now

On the daily chart, CEL surged to its intraday high of $1.67 per token on Sept. 2 after lows of $1.15 the day before. However, the token’s sharp rally accompanied lower trading volumes, suggesting a lack of conviction among traders about further upside moves.

CEL’s gains appeared after Celsius Network filed a motion with the Bankruptcy Court, requesting that its clients with “certain Custody and Withhold accounts should be able to withdraw the amount of digital assets owed to them.”

Celsius pulled itself up by taking cryptocurrencies from its clients and offering them mouth-watering returns by deploying their deposits in the broader crypto lending market.

But the market downturn this year created a $2.85 billion hole in Celsius’s balance sheet, prompting the firm to freeze its clients’ accounts, thus trapping billions of dollars of more than a million accounts. In July, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $20,000 on Sep. 2 amid renewed bets on a “short squeeze” higher.

Trader eyes $20,700 short squeeze trigger

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering from another dip below the $20,000 mark on the day, continuing rangebound behavior.

The pair gave little insight into which direction the next breakout could be, with opinions differing on the surrounding environment.

Amid downside pressure on risk assets and a strong U.S. dollar, overall consensus appeared to favor long-term weakness continuing.

For popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, however, there was still reason to believe that a relief bounce could enter first. Thanks to the majority of the market expecting immediate losses to continue, a “squeeze” of short positions could hit, pushing spot price out of its multi-day trading range to target as much as $23,000.

From a bearish perspective, there's a fair probability that the crypto market entered a descending channel (or wedge) on Aug. 15 after it failed to break above the $1.2 trillion total market capitalization resistance. Even if the pattern isn't yet clearly distinguishable, the last couple of weeks have not been positive.

For example, the $940 billion total market cap seen on Aug. 29 was the lowest in 43 days. The worsening conditions have been accompanied by a steep correction in traditional markets, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has declined by 12% since Aug. 15 and even WTI oil prices plummeted 11% from Aug. 29 to Sept. 1.

Investors sought shelter in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank's commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. As a result, investors took profits on riskier assets, causing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to reach its highest level in over two decades at 109.6 on Sept 1. The index measures the dollar's strength against a basket of top foreign currencies.

More importantly, the regulatory newsflow remains largely unfavorable, especially after U.S. federal prosecutors requested internal records from Binance crypto exchange to look deeper into possible money laundering and recruitment of U.S. customers. Since late 2020, authorities have been investigating whether Binance violated the Bank Secrecy Act, according to Reuters.

Crypto investor sentiment re-enters the bearish zone

The risk-off attitude caused by Federal Reserve tightening led investors to expect a broader market correction and is negatively impacting growth stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies.