Decentral Block Post

Key points:

Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.

Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.

If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could rally by mid-July and possibly reach $140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on cryptocurrency prices. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins perform poorly when investors fear that employment and consumer data are weakening. 

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.

The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.

The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook.

The shift comes one day after Canada, America’s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada’s ongoing trade war with the US.

US Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly told Republican lawmakers that the chamber would address a bill on stablecoin regulation before the May 26 Memorial Day holiday.

According to an April 29 Politico report, Thune made the comments in a closed-door meeting with Republican senators, who hold a slim majority in the chamber. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, was introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty in February and passed the Senate Banking Committee in March.

Thune did not mention any crypto or blockchain-related bills in his public comments on US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office. Since his Jan. 20 inauguration, Trump has signed several executive orders with the potential to affect US crypto policy, including one affecting stablecoins. Still, many of the actions do not carry the force of law without an act of Congress.

Related: $649B stablecoin transfers linked to illicit activity in 2024: Report

The proposed GENIUS bill could essentially restrict any entity other than a “permitted payment stablecoin issuer” from issuing a payment stablecoin in the United States. The House of Representatives, also controlled by Republicans, has proposed a companion bill to the legislation: the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act.

Key Takeaways:

Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin is undervalued and the firm holds an optimistic mid-term outlook.

The JOLTS report shows a sharp drop in open US jobs, raising investors’ hope for Fed interest rate cuts.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s (BTC) mid-term outlook dropped to an “optimism” zone, as the investment firm noted that BTC is trending toward “undervaluation.”

As proof, the firm cited the ‘Bitcoin Yardstick’ metric, which measures BTC’s market cap divided by its hashrate. A lower ratio suggests that Bitcoin is “cheaper” relative to the energy security of its network.

The Bank of Italy identified Bitcoin and other digital assets as emerging risk factors in a recent report, citing concerns for both investors and the financial system.

In its April 2025 Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Italy flags crypto volatility and rising integration with the broader economy, singling out stablecoins and non-financial firms’ crypto exposure as key concerns.

"The strong growth of Bitcoin and of other crypto-assets with high price volatility means risks not only for investors but also potentially for financial stability, given the growing interconnections between the digital asset ecosystem, the traditional financial sector and the real economy,” the report notes.

The Bank of Italy’s report also addressed the trend of non-financial corporations holding Bitcoin, stating that it exposes them to “marked price volatility” driven by “the belief that Bitcoin can support their share prices.”

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) helped popularize the corporate purchase of Bitcoin, beginning its acquisitions in August 2020. Since then, several companies have followed its lead, including Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, and GameStop.

A court in India has ordered the encrypted email service Proton Mail blocked in the country for refusing to share information with authorities.

In an April 29 hearing of the High Court of Karnataka, Justice M Nagaprasanna ordered the government to “block forthwith” domain names associated with Proton Mail, citing authority under the country’s Information Technology Act of 2008. The order stemmed from a complaint filed in January by a New Delhi-based design firm, alleging that some of its employees received offensive emails through the service.  

It’s unclear whether the ban will take effect or face other possible challenges in court. The Proton team reported in March 2024 that Indian authorities had similarly proposed ordering the service blocked in response to alleged “hoax bomb threats,” but it continued to operate in the country.

The crackdown on Proton Mail appeared to be part of a larger global trend to pursue action against platforms based on users’ activities, such as the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France in part for allegedly failing to moderate illicit content. Cointelegraph reached out to Proton for comment but did not receive any response at the time of publication.

Related: Crypto projects prepare to battle for privacy in Switzerland

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed deciding on whether to greenlight two proposed cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding Dogecoin and XRP, filings show. 

The US regulator has delayed its deadline for ruling on the proposed ETF listings until June, according to two filings reviewed by Cointelegraph. 

The filings were responses to March requests from US exchanges NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchange to list Bitwise’s Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF and Franklin Templeton’s XRP (XRP) ETF, respectively. 

They came on the same day that Nasdaq, another US exchange, asked for permission to list a 21Shares Dogecoin ETF. 

Dogecoin is the world’s most heavily traded memecoin, with a market capitalization of around $26 billion as of April 29, according to data from CoinGecko. XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger blockchain network. It has a market capitalization of approximately $133 billion, CoinGecko data shows.

Bitget, a cryptocurrency exchange with 100 million users, has announced a partnership with Avalanche to support community initiatives across India, one of the fastest-growing areas for crypto and Web3 developers.

The partnership will see at least $10 million doled out in mini-grants, scholarships, hackathons, and workshops to the Web3 community in the country. The initial focus will be in Delhi and Bangalore. Delhi is the most populous city in India, and Bangalore is known as the local “Silicon Valley.”

Cryptocurrency activity in India has surged over the past two years. According to CoinSwitch, a local exchange, crypto investment across the country accelerated in 2024, with the highest concentrations in Delhi (20.1%), Bengaluru (9.6%), and Mumbai (6.5%). Youth 18- to 35-years-old now account for nearly 75% of the country's crypto investors. While Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) remained popular choices, Dogecoin (DOGE) attracted the most investment in 2024, with other memecoins like Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE) also gaining significant traction.

Related: India has no plans to regulate crypto sales and purchases

India's tech market

The growth of India’s crypto ecosystem coincides with a wave of global exchanges either reentering the market or actively exploring a return. In February 2025, Bybit registered with local authorities and restored services in the country. In the same month, Coinbase began discussions with regulators seeking a comeback in the Indian market.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin tends to rally significantly when low leverage meets stronger-than-expected retail sales and hawkish Federal Reserve signals.

In three separate 7-week periods, Bitcoin rose 50% to 84%.

Upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could benefit Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies are frequently linked to investors’ inflation concerns or data that surpasses expectations for economic growth, yet clear signals of an impending rally are rare. However, a combination of three independent events has historically coincided with BTC price surges of 50% or more.

Update (April 29 at 8:54 pm UTC): This article has been updated to include comments from Bunq's CEO to Cointelegraph.

Europe’s second-largest neobank, Bunq, is expanding into cryptocurrency, citing growing retail investor demand for digital assets worldwide.

The Amsterdam-based neobank announced the launch of Bunq Crypto on April 29, a new offering enabling its users to invest in over 300 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Starting April 29, Bunq users in the Netherlands, France, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Belgium will be able to access cryptocurrencies directly through the Bunq app, according to an announcement.

Bunq CEO Ali Niknam told Cointelegraph that the move was driven by growing client demand for digital assets. "We believe that now many, many people, the large majority, are interested in crypto, and we believe that they're interested in buying crypto through an environment that they can trust, and they can relate to and they can recognize," he said.

Key Takeaways:

Fidelity Digital Assets’ report said that multiple Ethereum onchain metrics suggest ETH trades at a discount.

The BTC/ETH market cap ratio is at mid-2020 levels.

Ethereum's layer-2 active addresses hit new highs at 13.6 million.

Fresh data from Fidelity Digital Assets hints at a cautiously optimistic outlook for Ethereum, suggesting its dismal Q1 performance could be an opportunity. According to their latest Signals Report, Ether (ETH) dipped 45% during Q1, wiping out it post-US election gains after peaking at $3,579 in January.

The United States exchange Nasdaq has asked regulators for permission to list a 21Shares exchange-traded fund (ETF) holding the popular memcoin Dogecoin, regulatory filings show. 

The move follows 21Shares’ April 10 filing of its initial proposal to launch its Dogecoin ETF, shortly after similar applications from rivals Bitwise and Grayscale. The asset manager has also sought regulators’ permission to list ETFs holding other cryptocurrencies, including Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Polkadot (DOT). 

Nasdaq must gain approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before it can list and trade the fund. The request amounts to a regulatory review process that could determine whether Dogecoin becomes accessible to a broader range of investors through an ETF structure.

Related: 21Shares files for spot Dogecoin ETF in the US

Onslaught of altcoin ETFs

Fund issuers requested to list dozens of altcoin ETFs after US President Donald Trump instructed the SEC to take a friendlier stance toward cryptocurrencies after his second term began in January. 

The United Kingdom’s Treasury and Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, have proposed new crypto rules aimed at “support[ing] innovation while cracking down on fraudsters.”

In an April 29 notice, the UK government announced draft rules for cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), that would bring “crypto exchanges, dealers and agents” in line with regulations, as many residents were “exposed to risky firms and scams.” It cited discussions with US government officials, including a proposed US-UK cross-border sandbox from the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Hester Peirce.

“Today’s announcement sends a clear signal: Britain is open for business — but closed to fraud, abuse, and instability,” said the notice. “The government will bring forward final cryptoasset legislation at the earliest opportunity, following engagement on the draft provisions with industry.”

Related: UK trade bodies ask government to make crypto a ‘strategic priority’

Treasury and Reeves said the UK was committed to making the country a “global hub for digital asset technologies,” referencing the goals of the previous government under the Conservative Party. A 2023 consultation paper from Treasury proposed “bringing a wide range of cryptoasset activities” — including trading and issuing stablecoins — in line with UK regulations.

Opinion by: Felix Xu, co-founder of ARPA Network and Bella Protocol

AI has been a dominant narrative since 2024, but users and companies still cannot completely trust it. Whether it’s finances, personal data or healthcare decisions, hesitation around AI’s reliability and integrity remains high.

This growing AI trust deficit is now one of the most significant barriers to widespread adoption. Decentralized, privacy-preserving technologies are quickly being recognized as viable solutions that offer verifiability, transparency and stronger data protection without compromising AI’s growth.

The pervasive AI trust deficit 

AI was the second most popular category occupying crypto mindshare in 2024, with over 16% investor interest. Startups and multinational companies have allocated considerable resources to AI to expand the technology to people’s finances, health, and every other aspect.

For example, the emerging DeFi x AI (DeFAI) sector shipped more than 7,000 projects with a peak market cap of $7 billion in early 2025 before the markets crashed. DeFAI has demonstrated the transformative potential of AI to make decentralized finance (DeFi) more user-friendly with natural language commands, execute complex multi-step operations, and conduct complex market research.

Key points:

Bitcoin’s most recently-moved supply segment is increasing as higher prices see an influx of “speculative capital.”

“Hot supply” has doubled in just five weeks versus local lows in March.

Active address numbers have yet to mimic a classic bull market comeback.

Bitcoin (BTC) short-term holders (STHs) are back in the game as a “speculative capital” enters the market.

Cryptocurrency compliance firm Bitrace found that $649 billion worth of stablecoins flowed through addresses classified as high-risk in 2024, according to an April 29 report.

Bitrace defines high-risk blockchain addresses as those used by illegal entities to receive, transfer or store stablecoins.

Crypto compliance firms typically score crypto wallet addresses based on their likelihood of involvement in illicit activities. The higher the risk, the higher the likelihood of foul play, and the less likely compliant crypto businesses are to accept the assets.

Per the report, the amount accounted for roughly 5.14% of all stablecoin transaction volume in 2024. This is down 0.8% from 5.94% the previous year, but significantly higher than the 2.8% reported in 2022 and 1.63% in 2021.

Related: Americans lost $9.3B to crypto fraud in 2024 — FBI

Tron USDT tops high-risk transactions

Tron-based USDt (USDT) dominates high-risk stablecoin transactions, with Bitrace data indicating that well over 70% of the volume moved on the network. The remaining high-risk stablecoin transactions are mostly Ethereum-based USDt and a small amount of USDC (USDC).

Key takeaways:

Ether’s price was rejected at $1,860, but $1,800 must hold for a $2,000 breakout.

Strong Ethereum ETF inflows signal high institutional demand.

Ethereum’s $51.8B TVL and 30% DEX weekly volume rise show robust network strength.

A bull flag pattern on the ETH’s four-hour chart targets $2,100.

The United States’ rejection of a central bank digital currency has not halted the progress of CBDCs globally, but their success has been questionable so far, according to a former Binance executive.

Global CBDC projects have not failed, but they have also not become what they were anticipated to be, according to Olga Goncharova, CEO at the consulting firm Rizz Go and former director of government relations in the Commonwealth of Independent States at Binance.

“CBDCs were conceived as a technological breakthrough, but so far they look like expensive imitations of existing traditional fiat currencies that citizens and businesses already use through online banking and payment apps,” Goncharova told Cointelegraph at the Blockchain Forum in Moscow.

Though some of the CBDC-like creatives date back to the 1990s, modern initiatives are yet to offer users a real added value compared to traditional payment channels, she said.

CBDC leaders like China struggle with adoption

“Today it is clear that the expectations around CBDCs were overestimated,” Goncharova claimed, adding that none of the jurisdictions worldwide have succeeded in the mass adoption of retail CBDCs.

The Beijing city administration has announced a plan for local blockchain development and implementation over the next two years.

According to an April 29 announcement, the plan was jointly developed by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, the Zhongguancun Administrative Committee, the Cyberspace Administration Office, the Bureau of Government Services and Data, the Bureau of Economy and Information Technology and the Bureau of Commerce. The implementation is expected to start this year and continue until 2027.

The Beijing Blockchain Innovation and Application Development Action Plan recognizes blockchain as a “critical foundational technology for industrial digitalization and vital digital infrastructure.”

Notably, the objectives also include plans to “enhance the value extraction from digital assets through blockchain,” which may indicate crypto mining. The announcement also claims that the city has already invested heavily in this area of research:

Related: An overview of China’s digital yuan

A16z Crypto led a $25 million investment round into Miden, an independent blockchain project spun out of Polygon Labs.

Miden closed its $25 million seed rounds led by a16z Crypto, 1kx, and Hack VC, with participation from Finality Capital Partners, Symbolic Capital, P2 Ventures, Delta Fund, MH Ventures, as well as from angel investors, including MakerDAO’s Rune Christensen and EigenLayer’s Sreeram Kannan.

Miden is a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof-powered blockchain focused on high scalability through its hybrid consensus mode, which moves transaction execution from the mainnet on “edge devices,” referring to users’ devices.

Designed for institutions that value confidentiality, Miden enables applications to execute both public and private transactions with full privacy, according to an April 29 announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Execution on edge devices can help with the “bottlenecks that limit traditional chains,” said Bobbin Threadbare, the co-founder at Miden and former engineer at Meta, adding: