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Bitcoin’s 12% rally over the week and a surge in related exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have analysts thinking it could soon reach $100,000, but one crypto analyst has said to temper hopes as a key indicator is still giving mixed signals.

“Given that our stablecoin minting indicator has yet to return to high-activity levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally,” 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said in an April 23 markets report.

Stablecoin absence may limit Bitcoin upside

Thielen explained that a measured move from the falling wedge pattern, which traders perceive as a potential bullish reversal signal, shows that Bitcoin (BTC) may reclaim $99,000.

He added, however, that “the absence of strong stablecoin inflows raises questions about follow-through.”

Bitcoin was trading at $93,133 at the time of writing, up 11.42% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. 

Brandon Lutnick, chair of investment banking firm Cantor Fitzgerald, is reportedly partnering with SoftBank, Tether and Bitfinex to create a $3 billion crypto acquisition company.

Lutnick and the consortium hope to create a publicly listed crypto acquisition company to capitalize on the market under crypto-friendly US President Donald Trump, and replicate Michael Saylor’s company Strategy, the Financial Times reported on April 23, citing three people who have been briefed on the plan.

Cantor Equity Partners raised $200 million in January for the new firm called 21 Capital. At the same time, stablecoin issuer Tether will fork out $1.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), Japanese investment holding firm Softbank Group will contribute $900 million, and the crypto exchange Bitfinex will add $600 million.

Lutnick’s new venture hopes to raise another $350 million in convertible bonds and a separate $200 million private equity placement to buy additional Bitcoin.

Eventually, Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank’s Bitcoin investments will be converted into 21 Capital shares, with the value of the Bitcoin locked in at $85,000 per coin and shares costing $10 a pop.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has said it doesn't intend to refile its securities fraud complaint against Hex founder Richard Schueler, who goes by Richard Heart.

“Plaintiff Securities and Exchange Commission provides this notice that it does not intend to file an amended complaint in this matter,” the regulator’s lawyer, Matthew Gulde, stated in an April 21 letter to New York District Court Judge Carol Bagley Amon. 

The court had previously dismissed the SEC’s original complaint on Feb. 28 as Judge Amon said the regulator failed to establish that it had jurisdiction over Heart’s activities, which she said were not specifically targeted at US investors.

She granted leave for the SEC to file an amended complaint by March 20, later extending the deadline to April 21.

Heart posted to X on April 22 that “Richard Heart, PulseChain, PulseX, and HEX have defeated the SEC completely and have achieved regulatory clarity that nearly no other coins have.”

Heart added that the SEC walked away from some of its other cryptocurrency cases voluntarily, but claimed his was the only case where “the SEC lost and crypto won across the board, with a dismissal in court of every single claim the SEC brought.”

Tesla has held onto its Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2025 as CEO Elon Musk promised shareholders that he would scale back his time working as the Trump administration’s cost-cutting czar.

Musk’s comment appears to have been the main catalyst behind Tesla’s (TSLA) 5.4% price jump in after-hours trading on April 22 to $250.80 after closing the trading day up 4.6%, according to Google Finance. 

It comes as the automaker’s Q1 results released the same day show revenues hit $19.34 billion, missing Wall Street estimates by 7.85% and marking a 9.2% fall from the same period last year.

Tesla’s net income of $409 million also marked an 80.8% quarter-on-quarter drop and a 70.5% fall from Q1 2024.

Tesla’s digital asset holdings dropped 11.61% in value from $1.076 billion to $951 million in Q1, alongside Bitcoin’s (BTC) 11.56% price fall to $82,514 over the same time, according to CoinGecko data.

Bitcoin has broken above $93,000 for the first time in seven weeks, extending its post-Easter rally as recent macro events have analysts expecting more upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 5.62% over the past 24 hours and surpassed $93,000 on April 22 for the first time since March 3, continuing a 12% price rally its seen over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin traders eye “craziest one-minute candle”

Bitcoin quickly jumped from just below $91,500 to $93,000 in minutes, leaving traders guessing where the rally could go next.

“This is the craziest one-minute candle I’ve ever seen on the Bitcoin chart,” Bitcoin commentator Michael Sullivan said in an April 22 X post.

Pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto General said Bitcoin “is going as planned, as stated in the last post, a breakout was eyes and today we witnessed our breakout.”

US President Donald Trump’s media conglomerate, Trump Media and Technology Group, has signed an agreement with crypto exchange Crypto.com to launch exchange-traded funds “with a Made in America focus.”

Trump Media, which operates the social media site Truth Social, said on April 22 that it signed a binding agreement with Crypto.com and asset manager Yorkville America Digital to launch ETFs, which “are expected to comprise digital assets as well as securities with a Made in America focus spanning diverse industries such as energy.”

The funds will launch through Trump Media’s decentralized finance brand, Truth.Fi, and will be available through Crypto.com’s broker-dealer, Foris Capital. The funds are expected to go live later in 2025, subject to regulatory approval. 

Trump Media plans to invest some of its cash reserves into the ETFs, which will be launched alongside a number of Truth.Fi Separately Managed Accounts. The US law firm Davis Polk will be advising on the development and launch of the products.

The initiative is part of the firm’s financial services and fintech strategy, using up to $250 million custodied by Charles Schwab following a partnership agreement with the bank in January. 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission and federal prosecutors have charged a man they allege created a crypto scheme that swindled 90,000 people out of $200 million in the hopes of earning returns from Bitcoin and forex trading.

The SEC said on April 22 that it had charged Ramil Palafox, a dual citizen of the US and the Philippines, claiming he misappropriated over $57 million in investor funds gained through his company, PGI Global, between January 2020 and October 2021.

The regulator alleged Palafox used a multilevel marketing model to execute a “Ponzi-like” scam until the company’s collapse in 2021. The SEC said he lured investors through “false claims of crypto industry expertise and a supposed AI-powered auto-trading platform.”

The SEC claimed Palafox hosted lavish events in Dubai and Las Vegas to recruit new members who were offered referral bonuses to recruit others and used investor funds to pay other investors to further promote the scheme, as well as to line his own pockets.

“Palafox attracted investors with the allure of guaranteed profits from sophisticated crypto asset and foreign exchange trading, but instead of trading, Palafox bought himself and his family cars, watches, and homes using millions of dollars of investor funds,” said Scott Thompson, associate director of the SEC’s Philadelphia office. 

The Federal Court of Australia has sided with fintech firm Block Earner in an appeal against a ruling that found it was required to hold a financial services license for its now-discontinued crypto-related products. 

Block Earner’s crypto-linked fixed-yield earning product is not a financial product, or a managed investment scheme, and is not a derivative under the Corporations Act, Justices David O’Callaghan, Wendy Abraham and Catherine Button said in an April 22 judgment. 

The trio said Block Earner’s yield product couldn’t be classed as an investment or financial product because users loaned crypto under fixed terms for interest payments and didn’t pool contributions to generate further benefits. The terms and conditions framed it as a loan, and users had no exposure to the firm’s business outside of the agreed interest rate, they added.

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which first brought the case, has been ordered by the court to pay costs for the proceedings, including appeals. The regulator said in an April 22 press release that it is currently “considering this decision.”

Block Earner’s chief commercial officer, James Coombes, told Cointelegraph the court decision brings clarity that crypto assets shouldn’t be treated differently from other asset classes when applying existing laws. 

Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton confirmed that he has been appointed as the interim US Attorney for the Southern District of New York after the Democratic Party’s Senate leader used a “blue slip” to block a vote confirming Clayton’s position.

The appointment comes a little over five months after US President Donald Trump nominated Clayton to take on the role. He replaces Damian Williams, who played a major role in the conviction of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and other high-profile crypto cases.

Clayton said on April 22 his top priorities would be to protect public safety, ensure the integrity of the US financial system, defend national security interests and combat fraud, particularly against the elderly and most vulnerable.

The temporary nature of Clayton’s appointment resulted from Democrat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s use of a blue slip to block Clayton’s confirmation on April 16, effectively preventing a Senate vote and official confirmation of his position. 

Blue slips can be used by senators to block US attorney or district court judicial nominees in their home states. 

Chiliz, a SportsFi company, has met with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to discuss an investment and reentry into the US crypto market under the crypto-friendly White House and increased push for regulatory clarity surrounding digital assets.

According to the meeting request made public by the SEC, Chiliz plans a reentry into the US market around the time of the 2026 FIFA World Cup international football (soccer) tournament. The comeback would be accompanied by a $50 million to $100 million investment in the local market. National Basketball Association and National Football League teams are said to be interested in launching fan tokens if regulatory clarity improves.

The meeting with the federal agency was held on April 22 — the same day Chiliz CEO Alexandre Dreyfus shared a photo with Bo Hines, executive director of Trump’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, suggesting a second meeting with White House officials.

According to the meeting document, Chiliz discussed the proposed structure of a fan token and why “it should not be classified as a security.” Broadly, a security is an investment wherein the investor expects a profit due to the efforts of someone other than the investor.

Whether cryptocurrencies and related assets are securities has been a key issue in the regulation of Web3 within the United States.

The XRP Ledger Foundation has identified a “serious vulnerability” in the official JavaScript library used for interacting with the XRP Ledger blockchain network, the nonprofit said.

On April 22, blockchain security specialist Aikido said in a blog post that XRP Ledger’s open-source JavaScript library was “compromised by sophisticated attackers who put in a backdoor to steal cryptocurrency private keys and gain access to cryptocurrency wallets.” 

The JavaScript library includes programs enabling developers to interact with the XRP Ledger and is distinct from the blockchain network itself. 

‘“[T]his package is used by hundreds of thousands of applications and websites making it a potentially catastrophic supply chain attack on the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” Aikido said. 

The XRP Ledger Foundation has already upgraded the code repository to “remove the previously compromised version,” it said in an April 22 post on the X platform.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a 45-day high above $91,000 on April 22, and the upward movement coincided with gold reaching a new all-time high. The price gains reflect investors' concerns over a potential economic recession amid ongoing global trade tensions.

The tides are shifting, but does data support a Bitcoin price rally above $95,000?

In neutral markets, the Bitcoin futures premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. At present, the annualized premium stands at 6%, which is not considered particularly bullish, even though BTC appreciated by $6,840 between April 20 and April 22. Some analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the stock market.

Traders’ PTSD could emerge around BTC’s $90K zone

Part of this skepticism among traders stems from Bitcoin’s repeated inability to sustain levels above $90,000 in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested the $95,000 mark on March 3, only to fall to $81,464 the following day. This inconsistent performance since the $109,346 peak on Jan. 20 has contributed to a lack of conviction among bullish investors, especially as gold has continued to set new all-time highs during the same period.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading 16% below its all-time high, a figure that closely mirrors the S&P 500’s decline of 14.5%. This suggests that the recent era of excessive risk-taking may be behind us. Notably, even at its lowest point below $75,000, Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown was less severe than those experienced by Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

US Securities and Exchange Commission member Hester Peirce, currently leading the agency’s crypto task force, offered a preview of what the industry could expect now that Paul Atkins has been sworn in as the regulatory body’s chairman.

Speaking to Cointelegraph before the US Senate confirmed Atkins’ nomination and he took his position as SEC chair, Peirce said she welcomed the opportunity to work again with the incoming agency leader. Peirce worked as Atkins’ counsel from 2004 to 2008 during the then-commissioner’s first term at the SEC.

“He cares about economic growth and how the markets that we regulate can support economic growth,” Peirce told Cointelegraph. “I would love the chance to work with [Atkins] on trying to reorient the agency so that it does take into consideration all aspects of our mission.”

Related: Atkins becomes next SEC chair: What’s next for the crypto industry

Atkins, appointed by US President Donald Trump in what many saw as a nod to the crypto industry to replace former chair Gary Gensler, was sworn in on April 21. During his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee, lawmakers questioned Atkins on his ties to the crypto industry, potentially presenting conflicts of interest in his role helping regulate digital assets. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged over the Easter weekend, jumping 9% and crossing the $91,000 threshold on April 22. This strong performance diverged sharply from the stock market’s lukewarm rebound and mirrored gold’s bullish behavior, which briefly touched a new all-time high of $3,500. 

While the BTC rally and its growing decoupling from equities are noteworthy, it's the derivatives market that offers an even more bullish signal.

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin open interest (OI) soared by 17%, reaching a 2-month high at $68.3. OI measures the total capital invested in BTC derivatives, and such an uptick shows a growing bullish sentiment among traders. 

The market is currently in contango — a situation where futures prices (notably CME Bitcoin futures) are higher than the spot price. This typically occurs because investors anticipate rising prices and take advantage of leverage tools offered by exchanges, allowing them to gain greater exposure through futures than they could with direct spot purchases.

This raises two questions: Who is buying, and why?

DeFi Development Corporation, formerly known as Janover, is ramping up its Solana treasury strategy following a buyout led by Kraken executives.

According to an April 22 announcement, the company added 88,164 Solana (SOL) to its treasury, worth $11.5 million and bringing its Solana stake to $34.4 million.

On April 7, DeFi Development Corporation was acquired by a group of former Kraken executives. As part of the deal, the company announced a shift toward crypto, including a rebrand and a Solana-based reserve treasury. Before the transition, Janover operated in the real estate financing space, linking lenders with commercial property buyers.

Since the takeover, the company has made multiple purchases of SOL, including a buy of $10.5 million on April 16. With the latest purchase, DeFi Development Corporation’s total holdings stand at 251,842. The company plans to stake the tokens to generate additional yield.

As of this writing, shares of DeFi Development Corporation (JNVR) are up 12.83% on the news, according to Google Finance.

A lawyer representing one of the co-founders of crypto mining service Hashflare has addressed how their criminal case may move forward after the pair received “self-deport” letters from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

In an April 11 filing in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington, Hashflare co-founders Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin reported they had received a DHS letter directing them to “leave the United States” as part of a push by the Trump administration to effect mass deportations. The government letter contradicted orders from Judge Robert Lasnik, who restricted travel for Potapenko and Turogin as part of their bail conditions.

In February, the Estonian nationals pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud as part of a deal with authorities. Between 2015 and 2019, the two were responsible for defrauding Hashflare users out of more than $550 million. They also raised $25 million from investors in 2017, claiming they would establish a digital bank called Polybius. The firm was never created.

Indicted in October 2022, Potapenko and Turogin were arrested and held in Estonia before their extradition to the US in May 2024. Both have been free on bail since July 2024 but could face up to 20 years in prison each at sentencing.

Ordered to leave, forced to stay

“[Potapenko and Turogin each] got letters from DHS to their personal email saying ‘deport immediately,’” Reed Smith partner and defense counsel Mark Bini told Cointelegraph. “It caused some angst because [our client and his co-defendant], their conditions of release include that they comply with the law. And here you have this letter saying if you stay in the country, you’re breaking the law. And of course, their bail conditions say they can’t leave the Seattle area.” 

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.

Rising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.

However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.

Demand from financial institutions could push the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as high as $200,000 per coin in 2025, according to two research reports reviewed by Cointelegraph. 

Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI said institutional Bitcoin demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risk could cause Bitcoin’s price to more than double this year.

“While the forecast is optimistic, it's also conditional. Any black swan — from a major regulatory clampdown to a geopolitical event — can disrupt trajectories,” Fei Chen, Intellectia AI’s chief investment strategist, told Cointelegraph. 

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs clock biggest inflows since January as crypto markets gain

Bullish sentiment

The reports come as Bitcoin broke past $90,000 on April 22 for the first time in six weeks, reflecting traders embracing Bitcoin and gold as potential hedges against looming trade wars and geopolitical volatility. 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s breaks below key gold support

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

For instance, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

Bitcoin (BTC) hit six-week highs on April 22 as US trade war tensions emboldened crypto bulls.BTC/USD 1-hour chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin lines up resistance flips around $90,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD above $91,000 after the Wall Street open — its highest since March 7.

Bitcoin and gold benefited from increasing market nerves over how China, Japan and others would respond to US trade tariffs.

XAU/USD set fresh all-time highs on the day, while BTC/USD faced a key bull market support trend line that has been acting as resistance since early March.

For traders, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $88,370 thus became the level to flip back to support on daily timeframes.