Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) options open interest reached an unprecedented milestone, surging to a staggering $20.5 billion on Dec. 7. This remarkable achievement signifies the active involvement of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency space. Unlike futures contracts, BTC options come with predetermined expiration prices, offering valuable insights into traders’ expectations and the markets’ sentiment.

At the forefront of the Bitcoin options market stands Deribit, boasting an impressive 90% market share. The exchange currently holds a substantial $2.05 billion open interest for options expiring on Jan. 26. However, it's worth noting that a significant portion of these bets may lose their value as the deadline approaches.

Nonetheless, with the prospect of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining regulatory approval, previously sidelined bullish bets are reentering the playing field.

How costly is a Bitcoin call (buy) option?

Presently, the $54,000 call option set to expire on Jan. 26 is trading at 0.02 BTC, equivalent to $880 at current market prices. This option necessitates a 25% increase in Bitcoin's value over the next 49 days for the buyer to turn a profit. It's noteworthy that sellers can hedge their positions using BTC futures while pocketing the options premium, mitigating some of the perceived risk associated with this trade.

Analysts have emphasized the significance of the $250 million open interest stemming from the $50,000 call options on Deribit. At the current price of $44,000, these options are collectively valued at $8.8 million. This valuation could experience considerable growth if regulatory authorities greenlight the spot ETF plans. However, it remains uncertain whether the buyers of these $50,000 call options intend to employ them for bullish strategies.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable 15.7% price surge in the first six days of December. This surge has been heavily influenced by the anticipation of an imminent approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Senior Bloomberg ETF analysts have expressed a 90% probability for approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is expected before Jan. 10.

However, Bitcoin’s recent price surge may not be as straightforward as it seems. Analysts have failed to consider the multiple rejections at $37,500 and $38,500 during the second half of November. These rejections have left professional traders, including market makers, questioning the market’s strength, particularly from the perspective of derivatives metrics.

Bitcoin’s inherent volatility explains pro traders’ reduced appetite

Bitcoin’s 7.6% rally to $37,965 on Nov. 15 resulted in disappointment as the movement fully retracted the following day. Similarly, between Nov. 20 and Nov. 21, Bitcoin's price declined by 5.3% after the $37,500 resistance proved more formidable than anticipated.

While corrections are natural even during bullish markets, they explain why whales and market makers are avoiding leveraged long positions in these volatile conditions. Surprisingly, despite positive daily candles throughout this period, buyers using long leverage were forcefully liquidated, with losses totaling a staggering $390 million in the past five days.

Although the Bitcoin futures premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached its highest level in two years, indicating excessive demand for long positions, this trend doesn't necessarily apply to all exchanges and client profiles. In some cases, top traders have reduced their long-to-short leverage ratio to the lowest levels seen in 30 days. This indicates a profit-taking movement and reduced demand for bullish bets above $40,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is lining up an “early bull market” as a unique chart feature plays out for the first time in history.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Dec. 7, entrepreneur Alistair Milne drew attention to Bitcoin’s first ever weekly golden cross.

Bitcoin goes from death cross to golden cross in 10 months

Recent BTC price upside has delivered considerable profits to various Bitcoin investor cohorts, but 165% year-to-date gains are now significant for another reason.

Should current performance continue, Bitcoin will witness a crossover of two weekly moving averages (MAs), which have never delivered such a bull signal before.

The 50-week and 200-week MAs are key trendlines for Bitcoin traders and analysts alike. The latter is the ultimate bear market support level, and it has so far never decreased in value.