Decentral Block Post

Ether (ETH) price has declined by 14.7% since its peak at $2,120 on April 16, 2023. However, two derivatives metrics indicate that investors have not felt this bullish in over a year. This discrepancy warrants an investigation into whether the recent optimism is a broader response to Bitcoin (BTC) breaking above $34,000 on Oct. 24.

One possible reason for the surge in enthusiasm among investors using ETH derivatives is the overall market's excitement regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. According to analysts from Bloomberg, the ongoing amendments to the spot Bitcoin ETF proposals can be seen as a “good sign” of progress and impending approvals. This development is expected to drive the entire cryptocurrency market to higher price levels.

Interestingly, comments issued by the U.S. SEC Chair Gery Gensler's in 2019 reveal his perspective. During the 2019 MIT Bitcoin Expo, Gensler termed the SEC's position at the time as "inconsistent" because they had denied multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications, while futures-based ETF products that do not involve physical Bitcoin had been in existence since December 2017.

Another potential factor in the optimism of Ethereum investors using derivatives may be the pricing of the Dencun upgrade scheduled for the first half of 2024. This upgrade is set to enhance data availability for layer-2 rollups, ultimately leading to reduced transaction costs. Moreover, the upgrade will prepare the network for the future implementation of sharding (parallel processing) as part of the blockchain's "Surge" roadmap.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin highlighted in his Oct. 31 statement that independent layer-1 projects are gradually migrating and potentially integrating as Ethereum ecosystem layer-2 solutions. Buterin also noted that the current costs associated with rollup fees are not acceptable for most users, particularly for non-financial applications.

Bitcoin (BTC) skyrocketed 28.5% in October, its second-best monthly gain of the year behind the 40% rally in January. After the strong showing in October, the next question on investors’ minds is, could the bullish momentum continue and Bitcoin extend its recovery going forward?

Bernstein said in a note on Oct. 31 that Bitcoin could rally to $150,000 by 2025. The firm believes that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund by the first quarter of 2024 and the ETFs may attract up to 10% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

While the long-term looks bullish, the volatility may pick up in the near term. On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators believes that the bullish momentum is weakening and may result in a retest of $33,000 but before that, they anticipate an attempt at $36,000.

Will Bitcoin break above or below the current range? Could altcoins rally when Bitcoin consolidates?

Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.