US-based crypto trading platforms regaining influence over Bitcoin’s (BTC) token transfer volumes could possibly kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the "US vs. off-shore ratio," which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, indicated a drop in dominance from US exchanges after BTC reached an all-time high in January.
Bitcoin total transferred ratio chart (US vs off-shore). Source: X.comAs illustrated in the chart, a trend reversal is underway, which implies BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are beginning to rise again, aligning with previous bull market rallies.
A key technical indicator in the chart is the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA. Historically, this crossover has preceded major price rallies. For example, when this signal occurred at $60,000, Bitcoin began a rally within one week. This suggests a potential price surge may occur in the coming weeks.
Likewise, verified onchain analyst Boris Vest said Bitcoin is still undervalued. In a quick take post on CryptoQuant, the analyst explained that Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to 2018 levels, with only 2.43 million BTC held on exchanges compared to 3.4 million in 2021, indicating long-term holding and reduced supply.






























