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Crypto traders had a brief opportunity to pause and take stock of where things are on June 16 as the relentless selling that has hammered Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market over the past week began to relent despite an ongoing sell-off in the traditional markets. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after climbing to a high of $23,000 in the early trading hours on June 16, the price of Bitcoin slowly trended down on diminished trading volume to hit a low at $20,765.

Here’s what several analysts in the market are saying about the outlook for Bitcoin moving forward as crypto traders try to determine if the bottom is in or if there is more downside ahead.

Expect multi-month consolidation at the 200-week MA

A macro perspective of the journey that Bitcoin has taken over the years and how its past can offer insight into the current market setup was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart highlighting BTC’s behavior near its 200-week moving average (MA).

Rekt Capital said,

In the summer of 2021, the Chinese government banned Bitcoin (BTC) mining and cited the typical concerns of harmful environmental effects and money laundering. Now, the Chinese government is working toward establishing its own digital yuan currency. This raises the question as to whether the original reasoning was merely a Trojan horse.

This ban could easily have been a huge blow to Bitcoin’s momentum. After all, close to 75% of all Bitcoin mining had been conducted in China by late 2019, according to Cambridge Alternative Finance Benchmarks. If the network teetered under the weight of China’s nationwide ban, other governments might have begun to think that Bitcoin could be defeated after all.

China’s ban was Bitcoin’s stress test

For a brief period, the ban worked as intended — by the end of June 2021, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate had dropped to 57.47 exahashes per second (EH/s), down by a few multiples. However, the hash rate rebounded to 193.64 EH/s by December 2021 and by February 2022, it reached an all-time high of 248.11 EH/s.

The entire ordeal was a test that Bitcoin passed with flying colors: Banning Bitcoin mining proved as effective as the Prohibition era was at killing drinking culture in the United States.

In early 2022, the obvious explanation for the hash rate recovery was that miners who had set up shop in China had simply fled to the Western Hemisphere. There was plenty of evidence that seemed to support this hypothesis — primarily that the United States’ share of the global hash rate exploded from 4.1% in late 2019 to 35.4% in August 2021.

The outlook across the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to dim as the sharp downtrend that was initially sparked by the collapse of Terra (LUNA, now LUNC) appears to have claimed the Singapore-based crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) as its next victim. 

As large crypto projects and investment firms begin to collapse on a weekly basis, the prospect of a long, drawn out bear market is a reality investors are beginning to accept. 

Based on a recent Twitter poll conducted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Plan C,  41.6% of respondents indicated that they thought the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom will fall between the $17,000 to $20,000 range.

Addresses holding at least 1 BTC hits a new high

In the midst of the heightened volatility and rapid price decline for Bitcoin, many would expect to see traders dumping their holdings and fleeing to the sidelines in a bid to maintain their purchasing power.

While it has indeed been the case that falling prices and liquidations have pushed many traders out of the market, low-priced Bitcoin has also attracted some buyers who have patiently been waiting for the right entry point.

Solana (SOL) tumbled on June 16 amid a broader retreat across the top cryptocurrencies, led by the Federal Reserve's 0.75% interest rate hike a day before.

Solana price rebound fizzles

Notably, SOL/USD plunged nearly 17% to $30 a token, wiping out almost all the gains from the day before. The SOL price volatility liquidated almost $10 million worth of contracts in the past 24 hours across multiple crypto exchanges, data from Coinglass shows. 

The latest declines come as an extension to SOL's broader correction, where it dropped by more than 90% after peaking out near $267 in November 2021. SOL also fell to its lowest level since July 2021 near $25.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment and the collapse of high-profile crypto projects like Terra have strengthened SOL's downside prospects. 

SOL paints "ascending triangle"

Solana's pullback move on June 16 began after testing a horizontal trendline resistance near $34 that constitutes what appears to be an "ascending triangle" pattern.

Bitcoin (BTC) ran out of steam near $23,000 on June 16 after the biggest United States key rate hike in nearly thirty years.

Dollar strength wobbles after rate hike news

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching highs of $22,957 on Bitstamp after the Federal Reserve confirmed a 0.75% hike in June — its largest since 1994.

Momentum did not last long, however, and at the time of writing, the pair had shed $2,000 to return to $21,000 at the new Wall Street open.

Popular trader Crypto Tony eyed the U.S. dollar on the back of the Fed's decision, with an about-turn in USD strength key to a possible Bitcoin bottom.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), after spiking to twenty-year highs again after the announcement, began retracing through June 16.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) slumped on June 16, suggesting that its relief rally, coinciding with the Federal Reserve announcing it will hike the benchmark rate by 0.75%, is at risk.

Ether bulls trapped?

Ether's price slipped by 9.2% to around $1,120 per token a day after it rebounded by 23% after dropping to almost $1,000, its worst level since January 2021.

The ETH/USD pair's upside move, followed by a sharp correction, appeared in tandem with U.S. stocks, confirming that it traded like a risk-asset.

The decline means that Ether has shed 77% of its value since November 2021 and is now trading below its "realized price" of $1,740, data from Glassnode shows.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment adds more selling pressure, with investors leaving high-risk trades and seeking safety in traditional hedging assets, such as cash. 

Bitcoin (BTC) near $20,000 is worrying the market, but after narrowly avoiding breaking support, is the worst really over?

According to multiple on-chain indicators, it seems that max pain has yet to arrive this cycle.

The stakes are high for many hodlers this week — almost 50% of the supply is being held at a loss and miners are upping their shipments of BTC to exchanges.

Even some of Bitcoin’s biggest investors, notably MicroStrategy, are having to defend their conviction on BTC as price action tumbles.

With targets ranging as low as $11,000, Cointelegraph takes a look at how much further the market technically needs to drop to match historical bottom zones.