Decentral Block Post

On June 14, discussions of Celsius continued to populate media headlines and June 14's news involved the platform's CEL token accruing massive gains after what appears to have been either an exchange glitch or a short-squeeze. CEL price spiked from $0.18  to $1.55 in one abrupt candle before sinking back to $0.60 within the same one-hour candle.

Currently, analysts are on the fence about the reason for the explosive price breakout. Some cite Celsius repaying a portion of its debts as a reason, while others pinpoint a possible error on the FTX exchange as the reason for what appears to be a short squeeze.

Are debt repayments boosting investor confidence?

Celsius has been scrambling to cover a number of its debts and it is possible that some investors view this as a sign that the platform will be able to survive the current mayhem. 

Twitter analyst Hsaka said that on-chain data shows that the $28 million in Dai (DAI) that was recently deposited into a wallet controlled by Celsius and has since been sent to a separate address, which he identified as a debt repayment address.

Analysts believe that the Celsius's strategy is to lower its liquidation price in the MakerDAO vaults  where it holds funds and ultimately avoid insolvency.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) is showing signs of bottoming out as ETH price bounced off a key support zone. Notably, ETH price is now holding above the key support level of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $1,196. 

The 200-week SMA support seems purely psychological, partly due to its ability to serve as bottom levels in the previous Bitcoin bear markets.

Independent market analyst "Bluntz" argues that the curvy level would also serve as a strong price floor for Ether where accumulation is likely. 

He notes:

"BTC has bottomed 4x at the 200wma dating back to 2014. [Probably] safe to assume it's a pretty strong level. Sure we can wick below it, but there [are] also six days left in the week."

Bitcoin (BTC) crept higher after the June 14 Wall Street open as analysts hoped that long-term support had been preserved.

Hopes for "relief" from FOMC meeting

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded above $22,500 at the time of writing, having hit local highs of $23,300 on the day.

The pair had seen a strong bounce after nearing $20,800, with traditional markets likewise recovering after panic set in over United States inflation.

Eyeing where Bitcoin could go next, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that the market had reclaimed the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA), an important feature of Bitcoin bear markets that acted as support throughout previous price cycles.

Nonetheless, it was "too early to tell" if the 200 SMA would continue to provide an attractive zone, a tweet stated, with the Federal Reserve due to provide inflation cues on June 15.

Bitcoin (BTC) megahodler MicroStrategy can ride out further BTC price declines, even if it falls to just $3,500, its CEO confirms.

In a tweet on June 14, Michael Saylor sought to allay fears that his firm's BTC exposure may be about to cost it dearly.

Saylor stays calm as MSTR dips further

With the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, MicroStrategy has felt the pain of this year's BTC price declines — at least on paper.

According to the monitoring resource Bitcoin Treasuries, the firm's 129,218 BTC stack is currently being held at a net loss of $1.06 billion — around two-thirds of its total market cap.

This week, rumors over a potential default on a $205 million used to purchase those reserves intensified. Specifically, BTC/USD dropping below $21,000 would trigger a margin call, potentially losing MicroStrategy its position if it did not respond with extra capital.

Bitcoin (BTC) came within $1,000 of its previous cycle all-time highs on June 14 as liquidations mounted across crypto markets. 

Bitcoin price hits 18-month lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $20,816, on Bitstamp, its lowest since the week of December 14, 2020.

A sell-off that began before the weekend intensified after the June 13 Wall Street opening bell, with Bitcoin and altcoins falling in step with United States equities.

The S&P 500 finished the day down 3.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 4.7% ahead of key comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its anti-inflation policy.

The worst of the rout was reserved for crypto, however, and with that, BTC/USD lost 22.4% from the start of the week to the time of writing.

Bitcoin's (BTC) month-long choppy price action came to an end on June 13 after a deep market sell-off pressed the top cryptocurrency under the $29,000 support. The move took place as equities markets also sold off sharply, hitting their lowest levels of the year. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the Bitcoin sell-off began late in the day on June 12 and escalated into midday on June 13, when BTC hit a low of $22,592.

Here’s a look at what several market analysts are saying about Bitcoin's drop and whether this is the final capitulation event before the long-awaited price bottom.

Is there solid support at $23,000?

Previous instances of bear market capitulation have seen a solid level of support at Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, as shown in the following chart posted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Rekt Capital.”

Based on the trend from the last two cycles, Rekt Capital suggested that it's possible that BTC could see a “macro double bottom at the 200-week moving average” moving forward if the price action plays out in a similar fashion.

On June 13, cryptocurrency prices plunged deeper into bear market territory after Bitcoin (BTC) sliced through its current trading range and briefly touched $22,600, its lowest level se since December 2020.

According to BTC historical data, the market has now reached valuation metrics that show the price is severely oversold and perhaps near a bottom. Bitcoin has now fallen below its realized price, which represents the average price of every coin in supply based on the time it was last spent on-chain.

While the pain that this most recent capitulation has wrought across the ecosystem can’t be understated, the one glimmer of hope it offers weary crypto traders is that the worst of the decline could have occurred. The coming days will confirm this theory and proof would be institutions and retail traders stepping in to buy the dip.

"Shrimps and whales" accumulate

On-chain data shows that not all traders feel devastated about Bitcoin at yearly lows. Shrimp wallets, wallets that hold less than 1 BTC, and whale wallets with more than 10,000 BTC have been in accumulation mode since the old Terra (LUNA), now known as Luna Classic (LUNC), collapsed in early May.

According to data from blockchain intelligence provider Glassnode, shrimp wallets “have seen a net balance growth of +20,863 since the May 9th Luna crash,” and a total increase of 96,300 BTC since November's all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $28,000 support on June 12 following worsening macroeconomic conditions. The United States Treasury 2-year note yield closed on June 10 at 3.10%, its highest level since December 2007. This shows that traders are demanding higher rates to hold their debt instruments and expect inflation to remain a persistent challenge.

Louis S. Barnes, a senior loan officer at Cherry Creek, stated that as the United States reported its highest inflation in 40 years, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets had zero buyers. Barnes added:

"Stocks are down 2% today [June 10], but would be down a hell of a lot more if considering what a full-stop to housing will mean."

MicroStrategy and Celsius leverage use raised alarms

Bitcoin’s sell-off is adding more pressure to the cryptocurrency market and various media are discussing whether the U.S. Nasdaq-listed analytics and business intelligence company MicroStrategy and its $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank will add to the current crypto collapse. The interest-only loan was issued on March 29, 2022, and secured by Bitcoin, which is held in a mutually authorized custodian's account.

As stated by Microstrategy's earnings call by chief financial officer Phong Le on May 3, if Bitcoin plummeted to $21,000, an additional amount of margin would be required. However, on May 10, Michael Saylor clarified that the entire 115,109 BTC position could be pledged, reducing the liquidation to $3,562.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) fell to as low as $950 on Uniswap—a decentralized crypto exchange— this June 13, about 20% lower than its spot rate across other exchanges.

Over $130M ETH sold in six hours

The incident happened at around 3:00 am UTC after a whale dumped 65,000 ETH for multiple "stablecoins," including USD Coin (USDC), Tether (USDT) and Dai (DAI).

A piece of evidence noted that the whale sold its ETH holdings to pay off nearly $73 million worth of debt at Oasis.app, a DeFi lending platform. The duration of the sell-off saw ETH's liquidation price dropping from $1,200 to $875.

The Oasis borrower continued the selling spree—dumping another stash of nearly 28,000 ETH five hours after the first selloff—to pay back another $32 million in debt. This time, the liquidation price rose from $892 to $1,200, as shown below.

As a result, the whale dumped around 93,000 ETH within just six hours. The amount equals toroughly $112 million at June 13's ETH/USD price.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its lowest since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.

As the weekend sell-off intensifies, BTC/USD has now broken below its realized price for the first time since March 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

Bitcoin clings to realized price

At around $23,400, the realized price — the average price at which each BTC last moved — is acting as the first solid support so far on lower timeframes.

Previous levels, including those highlighted as potential bottoms, have failed to hold, and sentiment continues to favor further sell-side pressure thanks to the Celsius aftermath, inflation and forthcoming actions by the United States Federal Reserve.

Where BTC/USD could put in a final macro floor, meanwhile, is now a topic of heated debate.

Older Bitcoin (BTC) mining rigs are finding it difficult to generate positive revenues during the ongoing crypto market decline.

75% drop in Bitcoin mining profitability

The profitability of many Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) machines has dropped into the negative zone after Bitcoin's fall below $24,000 this June 13, data fetched by F2Pool shows. Those machines include Antminer S11 and AvalonMiner 921, which are now close to their "shutdown price."

Notably, Bitmain's Antminer S11 offers a maximum hash rate of 20.5 Terra-hash per second (TH/s) for a power consumption of 1,530 watts.

The cost of running an Antiminer 211 is 0.13 kilowatts per hour (KW/h) based on the global average electricity cost. As a result, it would consume around $4.5 worth of power every day versus the roughly $2 income in the same period, according to data gathered by ASIC Miner Value.

Similarly, the cost of running Canaan's AvalonMiner 921 comes to be around $5 per day compared to its income of over $2 in the same period.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced continued selling pressure before the June 13 Wall Street open as Ether (ETH) revisited multiyear lows.

Bitcoin battles for $24,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD eclipsing its 10-month lows set in mid-May.

The largest cryptocurrency faced bearish triggers on multiple fronts, these coming from both within and beyond the crypto sphere.

Fintech protocol Celsius appeared on the brink of meltdown after operations were halted, turning billions of dollars in collateral into new risk for crypto markets. In an event ironically similar to that which caused the May rout, Bitcoin and altcoins kept falling as fresh uncertainty filled the air.

Macro conditions were hardly better, with Asian markets selling off and Wall Street futures looking set to continue the downtrend that set in last week.

Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with a totally different feel to last as BTC/USD seals its lowest weekly close since December 2020.

A night of losses into June 13 means that the largest cryptocurrency is now edging closer to beating its ten-month lows from May.

The weakness has left few guessing: shock inflation data from the United States last week sparked a chain reaction across risk assets and low weekend liquidity appeared to exacerbate the consequences for crypto assets.

The macro pain continues this week. The Federal Reserve is due to provide information on rate hikes and the economy more broadly — the first official policy update since the inflation figures.

The mood among analysts on both Bitcoin and altcoins — while not unanimously bearish — is thus one of resignation. A period of painful trading and hodling conditions may have to be endured before a return to the upside, something which at least chimes with the historical patterns of Bitcoin’s halving cycles.

Bitcoin (BTC) is threatening to drop to its worst weekly close since December of 2020. The crypto markets are in are held firmly in a vice grip, and the selling accelerated following a higher-than-expected inflation report from the United States on June 10. 

It is not only the crypto markets that are facing the brunt, even United States equities markets finished the week ending June 10 with sharp losses. Risky assets may remain volatile in the near term as traders await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 14 and June 15.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone warned that if the stock markets continue to drop, then it will signal that most assets may have seen their peak exuberance in the past two years.

Could Bitcoin find support at lower levels and will that attract buying in select altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that are likely to move up if the sentiment improves.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke below the trendline on June 10, which negated the developing ascending triangle pattern. The bears maintained their selling pressure and pulled the price below the strong support of $28,630 on June 11.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) entered its “oversold” territory this June 12, for the first time since November 2018, according to its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

ETH eyes oversold bounce

Traditional analysts consider an asset to be excessively sold after its RSI reading fall below 30. Furthermore, they also see the drop as an opportunity to buy the dip, believing an oversold signal would lead to a trend reversal.

Ether’s previous oversold reading appeared in the week ending on Nov. 12, 2018, which preceded a roughly 400% price rally, as shown below.

While past performances are not indicators of future trends, the latest RSI’s move below 30 raises the possibility of Ether undergoing a similar—if not an equally sharp—upside retracement in the future.

Suppose ETH logs an oversold bounce. Then, the ETH/USD pair's immediate challenge would be to reclaim its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $1,620 as its support.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw further losses on June 12 as thin weekend trading volumes fueled an ongoing sell-off.

Analyst likens risk asset 'pump' to 1929

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $27,150 on its sixth straight day of downside.

With hours to go until the weekly close, the pair was in danger of resuming the losing streak, which had previously seen a record nine weeks of red candles in a row.

To avoid that outcome and put in a second “green” close, BTC/USD needed to gain over $2,000 from the current spot price, which at the time of writing was $27,400.

With support levels failing to change the mood thanks to the thinner liquidity during the weekend’s “out-of-hours” trading, analysts feared that a retest of May’s ten-month lows was due.